Gideon Rachman correctly points out the Wikileaks cables do
reveal some interesting stuff. One of the oddities that intrigues him:
The sheer bleakness of America's view of Russia -- and this
despite all the happy talk of improved relations and a "reset." It is
also interesting that the Americans seem to semi-endorse the popular theory
that Putin is personally very wealthy, and even name the oil-trading company
that could be being used as a siphon.
Yeah, if Wikileaks reveals that the U.S. thinks Russia
is such a kleptocratic basket case, why is the Obama administration so intent
on resetting the relationship?
Well, first, you could have divined the
administration's opinion of Russia without needing Wikileaks.
Second, I suspect the reset was chosen precisely because
Russia is such a kleptocratic basket case. For once, I'm ahead of the curve, as
I made this point in
a paper for the American Academy of Arts and Sciences earlier this year. The
key section:
I characterize current U.S. policy toward the Russian Federation as a form
of "realist internationalism," By realist internationalism, I am
referring to the kind of foreign policy doctrine espoused during the George
H.W. Bush administration. This approach recognizes Russia's great-power status
and the utility of a great-power concert in dealing with global trouble spots.
Rather than prioritizing human rights, democratization, or even economic
interests in the bilateral relationship, this policy position prioritizes
great-power cooperation on matters of high politics, such as nuclear
nonproliferation and the containment of rogue states that transgress global
norms....
Russia's demographic situation is
a nightmare: the country's population has been shrinking since 1992. The
country has experienced positive economic growth over the past decade, but it
has been due almost entirely to the run-up in energy prices. The price spike
also had a "Dutch Disease" effect on the Russian economy, with an
ever greater share devoted to natural resource extraction in general and oil
and natural gas in particular. Over the past year, President Medvedev has
lamented multiple times that "trading
gas and oil is our drug." Russia's other great-power capability is its
nuclear arsenal, but because it has failed to modernize the arsenal that is
also a deteriorating asset....
At present, Russia's geography, natural resources nuclear stockpile and
global governance prerogatives mean that Moscow is still a great power.
Compared to the other BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) economies,
however, Russia's future trajectory is far from promising. This assessment
appears to reflect the consensus view of the U.S. intelligence community as
well.
Given this state of play, it is not surprising that U.S. foreign policy has
reverted to the "equilibrium position" of realist internationalism;
over time, the distribution of power between Russia and the United States will
trend in America's direction. A pragmatic approach that alleviates Russian
concerns about its relative decline echoes the George H.W. Bush
administration's approach to a fading Soviet Union.
I'd be happy to hear alternative explanations for the reset in the
comments section.
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