Doha round

A few months ago I was at a panel on the April G-20 summit, when someone asked why there was a pledge to complete the Doha round when no one expected that to happen? 

The answer given by the trade experts in the room was that, as toothless as such a statement might sound, it was worse not to say anything.  The signal of not mentioning Doha was ostensibly worse than the cynicism of claiming that two plus two equals five. 

Bear this in mind when reading the following: 

The world’s biggest economies agreed on Thursday to conclude a comprehensive trade deal in 2010, in the latest attempt to revive the stalled Doha round and give a shot in the arm to the world economy.

Rich countries gathered for the G8 summit agreed with ten other large economies – including India, China and Brazil – that trade talks must resume urgently, with a deadline set for completion next year.

The agreement in the Italian town of L’Aquila will be hailed by world leaders as a decisive moment in reviving the global economy and a statement of intent to conclude a trade round which began in Doha in 2001.

But there will be widespread cynicism over whether such commitments are credible. Every G8 summit – not to mention other international summits – ends with leaders paying lip service to finalising a trade round.

If Obama actually tries a "Nixon goes to China" moment on trade, I might be more optimistic.  But with global warming and health care on the horizon, I have zero confidence that Doha will be completed within the next eighteen months. 

In my last Newsweek column, I asked the rhetorical question, "What if the great powers held a summit and no one cared?"  If this Alan Beattie story in the Financial Times is any indication, we can now replace "summit" with "WTO negotiation" and find out the answer -- it appears to include shopping: 

At this week’s World Trade Organisation ministerial meeting, the teargas and riots of past ministerial meetings like the disastrous Seattle conference of 1999 have been a distant memory. Not all attendees think this a good thing. As one business representative notes darkly: “At least people were paying attention back then.” The twists and turns in this week’s meeting have played to a small audience. The days have long gone when any WTO meeting was attended by a travelling caravan of lobbyists, protesters and journalists. Protracted stasis in the talks has driven away all but the most hardcore. Not one demonstrator is keeping vigil outside the gates. Seminars held by think-tanks draw a handful of attendees. Oxfam, who have doggedly stuck with campaigning on the Doha round, are present and staging one of their trademark photo-stunts – on this occasion four campaigners, dressed up as the main players, “gambling with the future of the poor” at a poker table set up nearby in a park.... After the talks were reduced first to a few dozen selected countries and then to an inner core of just seven to try to make progress, many of the surplus ministers present find themselves unoccupied and somewhat embarrassed. “Frankly, a lot of ministers are sitting around with no idea what they should be doing,” one lobbyist says. “The smarter ones have gone shopping.”

Of course, the absence of media and civil society interest could make it easier to reach an agreement.  Has that happened?  According to the WTO:  

Director-General Pascal Lamy reported to an informal meeting of the Trade Negotiations Committee on 26 July 2008 that after a week of hard work by Ministers, there was now “a basis for possible convergence”. He welcomed the “package of elements” from his consultations as “an important contribution” to progress towards establishment of modalities in agriculture and non-agricultural market access, adding that intensive consultations would continue on the outstanding issues.

Um... not to be too pessimistic, but there's been a "basis for possible convergence" for a few years now.  There just hasn't been any actual convergence.  This Wall Street Journal story by John W. Miller suggests that no one should be holding their breath too long for actual convergence anytime soon: 

A final resolution remains far from certain. China, India, South Africa, Argentina and many others remain opposed to the compromise proposal, drawn up by WTO chief Pascal Lamy Friday in a last-ditch attempt to save the talks. And there are still dozens of unresolved issues on the table....

Brazil's foreign minister, Celso Amorim, sounded a note of optimism on leaving the meeting of delegates from some 30 countries. "There is now a 65% chance of doing a deal, where before there was a 50% chance," he said.

When the protestors reappear, then I'll start paying attention.