My latest TNI online essay is now available for viewing on the interwebs. It looks at recent U.S. foreign policy actions through the ever-useful lens of the good cop/bad cop routine. Can a gambit that always worked on NYPD Blue work on the global stage? I have my doubts:
On the whole, the good cop-bad cop routine is of limited utility in world politics. Iran appears to be unbowed in the face of a hawkish Israeli government (though, to be fair, they have been preoccupied with other matters recently). A protectionist Congress has not made it any easier to complete the Doha round. Bill Clinton’s good cop was able to secure the release of the hostages, but at the price of a photo op that looked bad no matter how necessary it might have been. And while no one doubts that Biden occasionally goes rogue, it remains unclear just what policy benefits that strategy yields.
In theory, the best kind of bad cop is the one that seems genuinely unconstrained and ready to strike. An independent but allied government plays this part much better than a subordinate member of the executive branch. In other words, if you want to successfully execute the good cop-bad cop routine in world politics, the odds are long to begin with. To pull it off, however, under no circumstances should you let Joe Biden be Joe Biden.
[Would a threat to display more of Dennis Franz's posterior work as a compellent threat?--ed. Hmmm... let me check the Biological Weapons Convention to see if it's a legit move and I'll get back to you.]
The reality is the Russians are where they are. They have a shrinking population base, they have a withering economy, they have a banking sector and structure that is not likely to be able to withstand the next 15 years, they're in a situation where the world is changing before them and they're clinging to something in the past that is not sustainable.
If Biden was just shooting the breeze off the record, I'd be hard-pressed to disagree with anything in the quotes. I'm pretty sure, however, that part of "smart power" is not being gratuitously insulting to fellow members of the nuclear club. Maybe, just maybe, they'll take this kind of dumbass statement personally.
Don't take my word for it, though -- take Joe Biden's:
It is never smart to embarrass an individual or a country when they're dealing with significant loss of face. My dad used to put it another way: Never put another man in a corner where the only way out is over you. It just is not smart.
The word "stupid" has been thrown around a lot this week, but I think it applies pretty well to Biden's language.
The main themes of the speech were about American outreach to Iran and Russia, Still, the Washington Post's Craig Whitlock reported the following oddity:
Biden is scheduled to meet privately later this weekend in Munich with Sergei Ivanov, Russia's deputy prime minister. While he was conciliatory in his speech, Biden also signaled that the Obama administration would take a tough line when necessary.
For example, he said the U.S. government would not recognize the breakaway Caucasus republics of Abkhazia or South Ossetia, which seceded after the war in Georgia and has received strong Russian support.
This is Biden's example of a tough line? Well, whoa, blow me down!!
In not recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the United States has bravely aligned itself with... every other country in the world except for Russia and Nicaragua. This is a tough line like saying the U.S. government would also not recognize Vladimir Putin as King of the World.
We'll see how Tehran and Moscow respond to the outreach. I do like the fact that the "America will extend a hand to those who unclench their fists" line from Obama's inaugural address is now part of U.S. lexicon. It's a clever framing that puts the onus on Iran and Russia.
11:00 PM: Off to bed. For those of you who missed the debate, Will Wilkinson's recap is shorter and funnier than the actual debate.
10:46 PM: Ah, I can switch to CNN... and just heard an uncommitted Ohio voter say that she thought there was more "straight talk" in this debate. This is odd, because I thought both McCain and Obama were better at direct answers than Palin or Biden.
10:44 PM: The Official Blog Wife is forcing me to watch the post-game on PBS. A professor there also says she thought that Palin's answers were way too folksy. Hmmm... two academics think she was too colloquial... McCain advisors somewhere are jumping with glee.
10:31 PM: That's it! My take: Palin did much better than expected, but the folksiness was layered on a bit thick for me. Biden did better than her on foreign policy, but he also launched into some stem-winders when shorter, crisper replies would have been better.
10:29 PM: Palin's closing statement: "I've always been proud to be an American. And so has John McCain." Subtle implication: Biden and Obama are the real Manchurian Candidates.
10:27 PM: Oh, wow, Biden just gave a shout-out to Mike Mansfield. That's old school! And it's actually a good anecdote about Jesse Helms.
10:18 PM: I'm going to be very curious how this debate plays with people who only catch bits and pieces of the debate. I think the Sarah Palin of this debate will play well in short sound bites; Joe Biden is barely tolerable. Over ninety minutes, Palin's repeated tics start to grate more than Joe Biden's -- which is really saying something.
10:13 PM: Did Sarah Palin just say that she wished the Constitution gave the Vice-Presidency more power?
10:11 PM: ENOUGH WITH THE MOTHER-F$%$ING SMALL TOWN, MAIN STREET, SCRANTON/WASILLA FOLK WISDOM BULLS%$T!!
God, that felt good.
10:10 PM: I'm beginning to suspect that at 3:00 AM every day this week, someone woke up Sarah Palin and yelled "greed and corruption on Wall Street" at her.
10:04 PM: Hey, Sarah Palin wants to attach political conditionality to Alaska's sovereign wealth fund! This live-blogging has actually been useful for my research!
10:03 PM:David Pinto is live-blogging the Cubs-Dodgers game. I so got the short end of the stick.
10:01 PM: Biden's contempt is starting to leak through.... his sigh is almost as good as Al Gore's. To be fair, I'm finding Palin to be a bit wearying after an hour of listening to her verbal tics.
9:59 PM: Before I vote for Barack Obama, he must promise that he will never allow Joe Biden to repeat anything on camera ever again.
9:51 PM: Was it just me, or did Biden have a mini-stroke when he said "Spain?"
9:47 PM: Biden gives an answer on Pakistan that's pretty good, until he ends with (paraphrasing), "there are 1,000 madrasahs on the border in Pakistan! We should be building schools instead." Hey, Joe? That's what a madrasah is.
I think he just pulled a Palin!
9:43 PM: Palin to Biden: "Your plan on Iraq is a white flag of surrender." Wow. That's pretty strong language. Since no one cares about Iraq anymore, it won't matter, though.
9:38 PM: Laura McKenna: "I really, really want to trim Palin's bangs."
9:31 PM: On the climate change question, a little of the Katie Couric-style Palin pops in for a visit. Oh, and just to repeat -- energy independence is a really nice thing to talk about, but until those dilithium crystals are discovered, it's never gonna happen.
9:29 PM: James Poulos is right: "it’s so far super-easy to tune [Biden] out.
9:27 PM: I know this is nitipicking, but neither of them has directly answered a question.
9:26 PM: Biden is driving me to drink. By the fourth question, Palin has finally nailed her Tina Fey impression cold.
9:23 PM: Blinking Light 1, Biden 0!!
9:21 PM:God bless Megan McArdle: "Sarah Palin winks at the camera. I didn't believe it the first time I saw it; thank god for TiVo. I think all three million viewers are supposed to come up to her hotel room with a bottle of champagne after the debate."
9:17 PM: Palin makes a great point about small businesses! Really! I'm not being sarcastic here (Biden has a fair rebuttal)!
9:15 PM: Palin's spoken message, "I might not answer the questions in the way you like, but I'm going to speak right to the American people!" Unspoken message: "Darn it, I've learned how to duck a direct question! Yay!!"
9:13 PM: I second Alex Massie -- "I too want extra credit for watching this."
9:12 PM: Everyone drink at the first mention of a Joey!!
9:10 PM: Hey, Suzie Ormon has possessed Sarah Palin's body!!
9:09 PM: Both of them gave decent non-answers to the first question.
9:01 PM: Watching this on CNN HD -- uncommitted Ohio voters are decidedly neutral towards Gwen Ifill.
9:00 PM: It begins... hey, wait, where's the Olympic torch ceremony?8:54 PM: Should Soledad O'Brien really be telling the dialers that negative attacks don't play well with dialers? Isn't that corrupting the sample?
8:50 PM: In a dramatic policy reversal, the hard-working staff here at danieldrezner.com announced that they will start watchig the debate with coffee ice cream, and then switch to alcohol. This was not an easy decision to make, but after seeing the effect of our prior policy on equity and credit markets, it was necessary to make adjustments.
7:24 PM: Politico's Mike Allen reports that Palin is going to go on the offensive against Biden. This would make the debate more entertaining.
Comment away on the vice presidential debate between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin. I'll be live-blogging this one, but bear in mind:
I'll probably update this post a little less frequently -- i.e., after every five-minute "segment" of the debate.
Here's a topic of discussion before tonight's debate -- the following ad released by McCain's campaign. It's targeted against Biden, and called "Embarrass":
The ad works in making Biden seem buffoonish. Here's the thing, though -- is it possible to defend this ad while simultaneously defending Sarah Palin? Wouldn't the people who like Palin's "folksiness" like some of the gaffes in this ad?
Seriously, I put this to the Palinphiles.
Back when the debate starts....
Here's Katie Couric with both VP candidates about their thoughts on the Supreme Court:
This is a hell of a choice. On the one hand there's an unstoppable gasbag who makes every question all about him. And on the other hand there's an idiot with no understanding of constitutional law beyond the 3X5 index card placed in front of her. Neither of them have met a sentence that they can't extend for another two minutes with their run-on syntax.
The debate tomorrow night might be the most painful two hours of television I have watched since Temptation Island.
UPDATE: Ross Douthat makes an excellent point:
there's a sense in which the apologists for her performance are getting something right: In the process of performing very, very badly on national television, Palin is holding up a mirror to the rest of the political world, and revealing how the mix of talking points, bluster, obfuscation and BS that nearly all national politicians traffic in as a matter of course sounds when it's filtered through someone who isn't practiced in it, and isn't ready for the spotlight. Her performances reflect badly on her readiness for the vice presidency, no question - but they reflect badly on our whole compromised, spin-happy political class as well.
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