As FP's indefatigable Josh Rogin reported yesterday, GOP presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty will " deliver a major address on foreign policy on Tuesday in what his top aides are billing as a rebuttal to what they see as President Barack Obama's flawed May 19 speech.

Your humble blogger will be listening in -- live!!-- and will provide real-time updates on the blog and on Twitter.

I'll be looking for two things from this speech. First, how does Pawlenty straddle between his more neocon-friendly foreign policy approach with the stronger streak of retrenchment rhetoric that permeates the current GOP primary voter? Will he at least sound isolationism-curious, or will he conclude that the Tea Party's influence is waning? As I said before, my money is that he'll cozy up to this wing by sounding protectionist trade themes. The foreign policy pickings of Pawlenty's website are pretty slim.

Second, will Pawlenty score any Trumpie nominations? He came veeeeery close during the New Hampshire debate with his casual assertion that the United States could grow at 5% a year for a decade because China and Brazil had done it -- ignoring the vast differences in economic development between the United States and those two BRIC economies.

The speech will begin at 9:30 AM, so tune in so my life has meaning so you can learn what a GOP candidate thinks about the world!

[UPDATE] Live-tweets below, summary analysis at the bottom:

9:33 AM: Pawlenty starts by praising CFR

9:34 AM: T-Paw on U.S. in Middle East: "now is not the time to retreat from freedom's rise."

9:36 AM: T-Paw ain't coddling Tea Partiers -- bashes members of GOP for "out-isolating" Democrats.

9:37 AM: T-Paw: "History teaches us there is no such thing as stable oppression."

9:38 AM: T-Paw blasts Obama for being silent during Iran's 2009 Green Movement, cutting democracy aid to Egypt during same year.

9:42 AM: T-Paw has four categories of ME countries. Category 1: emerging democracies in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Iraq. US must support democracy.

9:43 AM: T-Paw makes shrewd point that revolution in Egypt has caused a populist rejection of economic reforms that Mubarak instituted in past decade

9:44 AM: On Libya, T-Paw rejects "leading from behind" (GASP!!) recognizing TNC, and using full weight of U.S. force to ensure regime change.

9:45 AM: T-Paw's second category -- the monarchies. Claims Jordan, Morocco are engaging in "real reforms" Paging

9:46 AM: T-Paw observes that U.S.-Saudi relaions are a a new low, but NOT because of Arab Spring. Apparently due to Obama cozying up to Iran. Hmm...

9:48 AM: T-Paw's Category 3: anti-US states of Iran, Syria. Blasts Obama for staying too close to Bashir Assad for too long.

9:49 AM: T-Paw's Category 3: anti-US states of Iran, Syria. Blasts Obama for staying too close to Bashir Assad for too long.

9:50 AM: T-Paw argues for "more forceful sanctions" to push business elites in Syria away from Assad regime

9:52 AM: On Iran, T-Paw also calls for new, tougher sanctions as a policy solution.

9:52 AM: T-Paw's Category 4 is.... Israel!!! "Nowhere is Obama's lack of judgment clearer"

9:53 AM: T-Paw: Obama's Israel-Palestinan obsession is absurd - Arab Spring shows that conflict is NOT at the heart of the Middle East

9:54 AM: T-Paw: Peace will only come to Israel/Palestine when everyone in the region recognizes the US totally has Israel's back

9:57 AM: T-Paw: "America is exceptional, and we have the moral clarity to lead the world."

9:58 AM: T-Paw says that everyone should listen to David Petraeus the most on Afghanistan

9:59 AM: T-Paw goes off on Republican isolationists, arguing that one party focusing on decline & retrenchment is enough.

10:00 AM: Jon Meacham is moderating the Q&A. His first response to T-Paw: "Withdrawal? Decline? Retrenchment? Really?"

10:05 AM: Pawlenty acknowledges that autocracies can't be converted into democracies overnight, "takes generations."

10:08 AM: T-Paw: War on Terror will require a long, "episodic" commitment

10:10 AM: Asked about worse possibilities after Assad, T-Paw responds, "No one ever asked who would follow Hitler."

10:11 AM: BREAKING: Pawlenty pledges US will not invade every Middle Eastern country.

10:15 AM: BREAKING: Pawlenty really does not like "cookie-cutter, one-size-fits-all" foreign policy strategies #anticookieist

10:19 AM: Pawlenty: U.S. should "not necessarily" use military force in Syria.

10:21 AM: Pawlenty thinks Obama "dithered for a month" at the moment when U.S. force could have pushed Khaddafy out.

10:27 AM: James Traub from @FP_Magazine asks what to do about elections leading to anti-Israeli leaders in ME. T-Paw: start early, think long-term

My final assessment: Pawlenty successfully skirted a Trumpie nomination -- he exaggerated Obama's cozying up to Iran, but that's pretty much GOP boilerplate at this point. Pawlenty was also quite outspoken in attacking "isolationists' within the GOP as well.

The occasionally overheated piece of rhetoric aside, this was a reasonably coherent speech that placed way too much faith in the ability of more sanctions to force out regimes in Iran and Syria.

What do you think?

Posted By Daniel W. Drezner

There are many quadrennial rites of occasion -- the Olympics, the World Cup, the, er... [C'mon, you need one more!!--ed.] the Quadrennial Defense Review [Nice save!--ed.].  And, of course, the first post-inauguration press conference.  Your humble blogger will be covering it live by updating this post quite frequently. 

8:00 PM:  I'll be watching this on CNN, in the hopes that Anderson Cooper will ask a question via hologram.

8:05 PM:  The key economic statement of the opening statement:  "The federal goverment is the only entity left with the resources that that can jolt this economy into life." 

8:08 PM:  Good initial response to the AP question, referencing the Japan recession.  Of course, the repeated efforts at fiscal stimulus in that country didn't work terribly well.  And he went on way too long.

8:14 PM:  At this rate, Obama will answer less than ten questions at this press conference. 

8:16 PM:  Just realized that the press conference will pre-empt the criminally underrated How I Met Your Mother.  Suddenly feeling that Obama is part of the problem, not part of the solution. 

8:20 PM:  Non-answer on Iran, until the very end, when he mentions that Iran has both rights and responsibilities as a member of the international community.  This could be a clever way of signaling that the U.S. is prepared to recognize Iran's right to a nuclear program, so long as Tehran is prepared to accede to safeguards.  We'll see how this formulation plays in Iran.

8:30 PM:  In response to a good question from Chuck Todd, Obama says, "the party now is over" and that "we have to adapt to new circumstances."  I think he's subtly hinting that he wants Todd to leave the building. 

8:33 PM:  Bloomberg reporter, in her question, says, "Many experts, from Nouriel Roubini to Senator Chuck Schumer..."  I fail to hear the rest of the question, as the notion of calling Schumer an "expert" at anything to do with economics causes my head to explode. 

8:35 PM:  It appears that Obama is asking for questions in a pre-arranged order.  Did any president before Bush 43 do this? 

8:39 PM:  Obama's metrics for economic success:  the creation of 4 million jobs, the unfreezing of credit markets, and the stabilization of housing prices.  It's gracious of Obama to acknowedge that the federal govenment doesn't have "complete control" over that last category. 

8:41 PM:  In answer a question on Afghanistan, Obama takes pains to distance himself from Hamid Karzai.  Also mentions the actions of the Taliban and Al Qaeda in the region.  Obama should really ead my colleague Tom Ricks on this matter. 

8:45 PM:  Oooohhh, Fox News's first question!!  And it's about Joe Biden!!  This gives Obama his first real opportunity for an easy laugh in his response.  

8:48 PM:  A question about A-Rod!  I'm mostly glad that Obama's answer was short and did praise MLB's toughening stance on the issue. 

8:49 PM:  Obama loses his Helen Thomas virginity.  Good answer on preventing a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, managing to connect it to arms control with Russia.  Thomas, God bless her, tries to keep talking. 

8:53 PMThe Huffington Post gets a White House reporter?  Who knew?!

8:57 PM:  Obama closes with an appeal to pragmatism, but I wonder if there's as much expert consensus on important issues as Obama thinks there is. 

9:01 PM:  And it's over.  I thought all players played their part well, but I would have liked to have seen shorter answers.  For all his talk about the stimulus, I actually think his answer on Iran might be the most newsworthy. 

Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

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