As the 2008 Summer Games approach, the hard-working staff here at danieldrezner.com has been mulling over who will suffer the biggest hit in terms of prestige.
Naturally, the first suspect is China. While the Games were thought to be a big coup for Beijing as recently as a year ago,
it's beginning to dawn on some people that they might not get as much out of the Games as they had thought. There's the
dissident problem, the
visa problem, the
pollution problem (though
that's improving), and, of course, the
Mia Farrow problem.
However, I suspect China will get about half a loaf of what it wants out of these games. China has always seen the Olympics as a two-fer of increasing its international prestige while also providing some rallying around the flag for its own population.
I suspect Beijing's first-best outcome was a flawless Games that dazzled foreigners and countrymen alike. That went out the window earlier this year; the media has its frame -- it will be primed to report on what goes wrong. Paradoxically, however, press blowback from abroad could increase support for the government at home. Things certainly played out that way in response to the torch protests. The only reason it would not play out that way during the Olympics themselves is if the target of Western criticism was more in synch with the concerns of ordinary Han Chinese -- i.e., the environment.
No,
after reading this Financial Times story by Mure Dickie, the biggest loser in these olympics will be.... the International Olympic Committee, for looking like gullible fools:
China is to maintain its censorship of overseas websites even for journalists covering the Beijing Olympics, undermining earlier claims by the International Olympic Committee that international media would enjoy unfettered internet access during the Games.
Beijing routinely blocks access to thousands of overseas websites considered politically or socially suspect as part of a sprawling and secretive internet censorship system. However, the government had been widely expected to offer unfiltered internet access to the more than 20,000 journalists covering the Games, which open on August 8.
However, the Beijing Games organising committee (Bocog) insisted on Wednesday that it had never promised full freedom. “During Games-time we will provide sufficient and convenient internet access,” Sun Weide, Bocog spokesman, said.
Bocog was already providing “sufficient” access, Mr Sun said, even though journalists have complained about blocks on overseas websites such as that of Amnesty International, a human rights group that this week issued a report on preparations for the Games....
The sharp contrast between Beijing’s refusal to suspend censorship controls and the IOC’s previous assurances will cast a renewed spotlight on the international sports group’s handling of preparations for the Games.
The IOC's reaction to this has been... er... schozophrenic.
The Australian reports that the IOC knew this was coming;
the Times of India says the exact opposite.
China still wins domestically if it receives critical coverage; the IOC, on the other hand, will lose what little credibility it has remaining.
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