Posted By Daniel W. Drezner

Baseball Prospectus has been running an off-season series entitled "GM for a Day" in which their staff suggests offseason plans for myriad teams (here's what they did with the Yankees).  In the wake of the Yankees acquisition of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and M.C. Teixeira, much of Red Sox Nation is panicking, while others are contemplating Plan B's.  So, I'm gonna take a stab at what the Red Sox can do in the remaining bits of the offseason in order to best compete for the World Series.  Here are my proposed moves:
  1. Don't panic.  The Yankees have made some great signings, no doubt.  As I pointed out here, however, their track record on this front has not been all that promising over the past decade.  Meanwhile, both Toronto and Tampa Bay should regress from the previous season.  Things are still pretty promising for the Red Sox.  The last time the Red Sox toyed with but rejected a swap of Mike Lowell for a high-profile first baseman, they won a World Series the next year.  In 2009, the parent club should expect useful contributions from prospects like Daniel Bard, Michael Bowden, and Lars Anderson.  BP's Joe Sheehan is correct when he points out, "The Yankees have been active by necessity; the Red Sox have been quiet by choice."  As Bill Burt concurs in the Berkshire Eagle-Tribune, "That's the beauty of the position the Red Sox are in. They did not need Mark Teixeira. He was a luxury, an expensive one."
  2. Sign Kevin Youkilis and Jon Lester to long-term contracts.  Two-time World Series winners tend not to get much sympathy from the rest of the world, but signing Youkilis and Lester (along with Dustin Pedroia's recent contract) serves several baseball and PR purposes.  It locks up Boston's best three players from last year ; it highlights the fact that Boston's strength is its home-grown talent (in contrast to the Yankees); and it keeps together a core that has clearly thrived in the hothouse that is Boston sports. 
  3. Sign Rocco Baldelli to a three year, $18 million contract; sign David Eckstein to a two-year, $8 million contract.  The Red Sox' biggest flaw last year was a weak bench.  There was no decent pinch-hitter in the group, in particular on the right-hand side.  Sean Casey was a great guy, but he couldn't field and I'm pretty sure that a 59-year old Bill Buckner could have beaten him in a foot race.  So if the Sox are going to overpay, overpay for bench strength.  Baldelli is a local New Englander, he can play all three outfield positions, and he is apparently less sick that previously thought.  Give him what he likely craves, which is a long-term deal.  He's great insurance for the inevitable J.D. Drew injury or Jacoby Ellsbury slump.  Eckstein is past his prime, but he can play both second base and shortstop, and is a pretty decent situational hitter when the need arises.  No one will offer him a two-year deal, so this guarantees we get him. 
  4. Trade Clay Buchholz and Manny Delcarmen to the Texas Rangers for Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Hank Blalock; resign Jason Varitek once he realizes the non-existent market for his services.  The biggest weakness in the Red Sox lineup last year was at catcher, so deal with that.  There are debates about whether Saltalamacchia will be able to stay at catcher, but the great thing about getting him is that it doesn't matter.  He can catch for the next few years, by which point one could sign Joe Mauer (or promote Dusty Brown) and move him to DH or first base.  Varitek can be Saltalamacchia's caddy/advisor.  Blalock provides a corner bench player with some pop.  Trades and player development have made both Buchholz and Delcarmen expendable while still valuable, and Lord knows the Rangers need pitching. 
  5. Convert Justin Masterson into a three-inning closer.  Here's an area where the Red Sox can make in innovation, or retrovation; bring back the three-inning closer.  Masterson would be perfect in this role, and helps to give the bullpen a guaranteed rest day.  Let him pitch once every three or games, and you get 120+ innings out of him, while easing the pressure of the rest of the 'pen.
  6. Trade Julio Lugo and David Pauley to the Oakland Athletics for a bag of balls Jerry Blevins.  Lugo will be a distraction if he's around Boston, and if anyone recognizes Lugo's positive qualities, it's Billy Beane.  If the Sox offer to eat half his contract, then Beane will give up a decent lefty reliever in exchange for an inexpensive two years of a shortstop with an above-average OPS at his position.  The Red Sox would get a backstop to Hideki Okajima and end the Javier Lopez experiment.     
  7. Sign John Smoltz to a one-year contract.  My wheeling/dealing leaves the Red Sox a little thin in the fifth starter/swingman/11th reliever category.  Smoltz has started and closed in their career, so he can fit the bill if Bowden or Masterson or Ramon Ramirez falls short somehow. 
So, the 2009 Red Sox would look like this: Lineup
  • CF  Jacoby Ellsbury
  • 2B  Dustin Pedroia
  • DH  David Ortiz
  • 1B  Kevin Youkilis
  • 3B  Mike Lowell
  • RF  J.D. Drew
  • LF  Jason Bay
  • C  Jarrod Saltalamacchia
  • SS  Jed Lowrie
Bench
  • OF Baldelli
  • OF/INF Bailey
  • INF Blalock
  • INF Eckstein
  • C  Varitek
Rotation
  • Beckett
  • Lester
  • Matsuzaka
  • Wakefield
  • Bowden/Smoltz
Bullpen:
  • Papelbon
  • Okajima
  • Ramirez
  • Masterson
  • Blevins
  • Smoltz/Bard
 I'm pretty comfortable with that. 
The Boston Red Sox are not raising their ticket prices for the 2009 season
The Boston Red Sox today announced the team is holding prices at 2008 levels for all existing seats and standing room tickets available to the public at Fenway Park for the 2009 season. The team will also hold prices for all tickets available to the public for 2009 Spring Training games at City of Palms Park in Ft. Myers, FL. "We have been listening to fans, friends, and family about the challenges they are facing in light of the current adverse economic conditions," said Larry Lucchino, Red Sox President/CEO. "We are also grateful for the unwavering faith and support our fans have shown us year after year and we hope our ownership's decision to hold prices for the upcoming season will in some way help ease the burden on Red Sox Nation." The move marks the first time in 14 years, since 1995, that the team has held ticket prices across the board.
As the Boston Globe's Chad Finn points out, 1995 was the first year after the 1994 baseball strike, so you'd have to go back even further to see a move like this that was taken in response to the overall economic situation.  UPDATE:  The current economic climate is even affecting Yankee ticket sales.   ANOTHER UPDATE:  David Pinto offers an intuguing alternative explanation:  "I wonder how much getting a cut of ticket reselling plays into this?"   

Posted By Daniel W. Drezner

A few days ago Ross Douthat posted the following
Rays fans are acquainted with regular-season losing, sure, but now it's time for them to be acquainted with another form of baseball suffering: The postseason near-miss. In the long run, it's for their own good: They'll better appreciate final victory when it eventually arrives, and they'll avoid the dreaded "Florida Marlins syndrome," in which a premature World Series win (or two!) ruins a city for the normal ups and downs of baseball fandom. All of which is to say that the Red Sox won't just be taking another step toward repeating as World Champions if they stop drowning in two feet of water and come back from 2-1 down to knock Tampa out of the postseason; they'll be doing the Rays, and especially Rays fans, a big favor as well.
Well, after last night, I think Rays fans have lost their postseason suffering virginity: 
 
Unless Josh Beckett and Jon Lester manage to pitch back to form on Saturday and Sunday, the Rays will still go onto the World Series, and Game Five of this year's ALCS will be remembered in the same way as Albert Pujols' monster three-run blast of Brad Lidge in the 2005 NLCS -- a great moment that did not affect the final outcome.  The way I look at it, however, for the rest of this season the Red Sox are playing with the house's money.  And, no matter what, I'll be able to remind the New York Times' William C. Rhoden about how his "Manny Curse" trial balloon popped in the most satisfying possible manner. 

Posted By Daniel W. Drezner

This baseball season, I've been trying to figure out if the 2008 Red Sox were going to be like the 2007 team (which would have been awesome), the 2005 team (good but the pitching wasn't quite there) or the 2006 team (superficially good but one step away from falling off a cliff).  After the big Manny Ramirez trade, however, I can now add 2004 to the possible list of teams -- scuffling team goes on a big-time tear after trading away a talented malcontent.  I love this tidbit from Nick Cafardo:  "Ramirez was asleep when the trade went down [at 4 PM!!--DD] and didn't know about it for a couple hours later."  Seth Mnookin has a good Soxfan rundown of the pros and cons of the trade.  I'll add four points:
  1. If ESPN's Steve Phillips thinks the trade was a loser for the Red Sox but Baseball Prospectus' Joe Sheehan and Christina Kahrl think it's a winner, then I'll sleep well tonight. 
  2. In his tick-tock on the trade, Gordon Edes wrote:  "Management had taken an informal poll of the club's veteran leaders; what it was hearing was that [Red Sox Manager] Francona was in danger of losing the clubhouse if Ramírez was allowed to continue in the same vein, begging off from playing because of injuries teammates privately questioned, obsessing on his contract, playing hard when the mood suited him."  You know what?  Francona has been so underestimated as a manager of modern-day baseball, I'm actually willing to say that I'd trade not winning the World Series this year if it meant Francona was hale and hearty enough to manage the next five years.  As Edes' story suggests, I think trading Manny did just that. 
  3. At lot of fans think the ownership of the team were "enablers" of Manny.  I think the Red Sox's calculation for years has been that while they wished Manny had given them max effort all the time, 90% effort from a transcendent player was better than 100% from most other players.  Ramirez is still a great player, but statheads will tell you that he's no longer transcendent.  I'll miss the 2003-2005 Manny, and the Manny from the 2007 playoffs -- but it was time for him to leave. 
  4. The Red Sox have not had good luck with deadline deals for Canadian ballplayers -- I hope that Jason Bay can break that jinx. 
EXPLORE:SPORTS, BASEBALL, RED SOX

Posted By Daniel W. Drezner

Bob Ford of the Philadelphia Inquirer does not like Red Sox fans
I see people. I see annoying people. I see annoying people wearing blue hats with a red B on the front. And they're . . . they're . . . everywhere! Yes, it is the seemingly annual invasion of the denizens of Red Sox Nation. (Motto: In Us We Irritate.) It is a nation whose currency is based on being cloying, self-important, pompous, overly loud and, regrettably, ever-present, and the economy is great. Axis of Evil? You make your list of nations that belong and I'll make mine.... The Red Sox, thanks largely to their streak-breaking championship in 2004, became cuddly, cute, popular, and attractive to great scads of casual fans who wanted to glom onto the gravy train. There's nothing cuddly or cute about a team with a $133 million payroll. You can't be an underdog if you spend like the Kennedys. If the Red Sox - who struggled to draw one million fans under the penurious final seasons of Yawkey family ownership - were once a cold-water walk-up on Kenmore Square, they are now a gated compound on the Cape.
As a longtime Sox fan, I can kind of understand where Ford is coming from.  The Red Sox clearly aren't underdogs anymore -- and, with continued good management, never will be.  On the other hand, Ford kind of contradicts himself at the end of his column: 
Earlier this year, Hank Steinbrenner, part-owner of the Yankees and son of legendary windbag George Steinbrenner, said he doesn't believe in Red Sox Nation. "Go anywhere in America and you won't see Red Sox hats and jackets, you'll see Yankee hats and jackets," Steinbrenner said. "This is a Yankee country." At the moment, judging by the national deficit and some unfortunate policy missteps, this actually seems to be a Kansas City Royals kind of country. But we'll leave that debate for another time and focus instead on this question for Mr. Steinbrenner: What in the world are you talking about? There are Yankees hats out there, certainly. I see them in plaid and argyle and all black, and worn sideways with no bend to the brim. Those are prevalent, and I honestly don't know what they are, but they are not baseball hats. Everywhere else are the blue hats with the red B on the front. Those are stained and weathered, and the brims are curved to keep out the sun. The people who wear them have a big team that pretends to be little, a team that won a championship in 2004 and then another last season. They are very happy with themselves.
It seems to me you can't begrudge a fan base that was loyal through the seventy lean years and is now reaping the seven fat years.  Hat tip to David Pinto, who makes an interesting point
Red Sox Nation, however, is a truly remarkable phenomenon. Boston combined first rate marketing with deft team building to take Boston from a locally loved team to a national brand. Both on the business and baseball side, the management group should be admired for that, and other teams should try to emulate that success. Ford's team, the Phillies, have a chance to build that kind of brand right now. Maybe create the HURH club, for Howard, Utley, Rollins, and Hamels. Instead of complaining, try beating them at their own game.
The problem is, the Phillies play in Philadelphia, the city with the meanest sports fans in the country.  My father can tell war stories about how, as an ER doc, he'd see the hospital overflow with people following any sports event.  I've seen Philly fans up close -- hell, they'd begrudge Gandhi for life if the guy booted a grounder.  If the Red Sox don't win it this year, I'll be pulling for the Phillies, however, just to see how Philly fans deal with success.  Five years of sports success in Boston has gone a long way towards eliminating the sourness that pervades the Philly sports scene. 

Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

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