Monday, June 16, 2008 - 12:30 AM
The number of Russian tourists visiting countries outside the former Soviet Union grew to 7.1 million in 2006, the last year statistics were available, from 2.6 million in 1995, according to the Russian government. A record 2.5 million Russians visited Turkey in 2007, up 33 percent from 2006, Turkish officials said. Only Germany, that paragon of European wealth, sends more tourists to Turkey. (By contrast, in 1988, a few years before the collapse of the Soviet Union, all of 22,000 Soviet citizens visited Turkey.) The Russian tourism boom is happening as new low-cost airlines in Europe have spurred a sharp increase in tourism across the Continent. But for the Russians, the chance to travel is especially prized. For the first time in Russian history, wide swaths of the citizenry are being exposed to life in far-off lands, helping to ease a kind of insularity and parochialism that built up in the Soviet era. Back then, the public was not only prevented from going abroad; it was also inculcated with propaganda that the Soviet Union was unquestionably the world’s best country, so there was no need to leave anyway. People who desired foreign travel in Soviet times typically had to receive official approval, and if it was granted, they were closely chaperoned once they crossed the border. Even before they left, they often were sent to classes to be indoctrinated in how to behave and avoid the perils of foreign influence. Those who were not in good standing with the party had little chance of going.Many of the states that the United States thinks of as authoritarian -- Russia, China, Saudi Arabia -- are actually pretty open about letting their citizens live, travel and study abroad. This stands in sharp contrast to the totalitarian regimes of the former Warsaw Pact or Myanmar and North Korea today). Ibring this up because it highlights how unusual those communist regimes really were. Citizens trapped in both authoritarian and totalitarian societies face mortal risks in exercising voice as a means of political protest. Citizens trapped in totalitarian societies, however, can use exit -- migration -- as an additional means of registering discontent. In sufficient numbers, migration can be just as powerful as protest in promoting regime change. One of the triggers behind the collapse of East Germany was the creation of a quasi-legal escape route through Hungary and Czechoslovakia in the late summer of 1989. Over the next month, more than 1% of East Germany’s total population fled the country –putting tremendous pressure on the East German regime to change its ways. Zimbabwe is near collapse now in part because of the same problem. Clearly, what we currently label as authoritarian states are a different animal. People can leave -- indeed, in some cases I suspect these governments are happy to have political dissidents depart their shores. What's interesting is that many people -- not just those personally invested in these regimes -- leave and come back. This is new, and as a political scientist, I find it pretty interesting. As a foreign policy analyst, it suggests that the lessons drawn from how the Soviet model do not travel into the here and now all that well.
New? I'm not so sure. Many of these "new authoritarian" regimes are more typical of autocratic polities than the Soviet-style totalitarianism we know so well. Europe has a long history of autocratic states whose elites traveled widely (most of them, recall, were autocratic in the 18th-19th centuries). Off the top of my head--and without access to good data--I'd say the novelty here is more the "electoral authoritarian" style we've seen emerge as pretty dominant over the last few decades.
You're correct, Dan, but it's not like the liberal democracy was a pervasive form of governance in the 18th/19th centuries either. What's interesting about these elected authoritarian regimes is that their ciizens have more than a whiff of other possibilities out there, but still these regimes are thriving.
The major difference between authoritarian states like China & Russia as opposed to North Korea and Myanmar seems to be that the former are economically successful, something the USSR and Warsaw Pact countries never were. Perhaps what this really shows is that people are prepared to sacrifice personal freedoms of speech and expression for economic prosperity, to a point anyway.
I object. The Zimbabwe emigrations seem to have given that regime several extensions on its well-earned demise. Exile in authoritarian or semi-authoritarian regimes acts as a pressure-release valve. The economically desperate or politically unreconcilable can always "go to Texas", while the rest of the country continues to go to hell.
Totalitarian regimes, on the other hand, require the love of the down-trodden and oppressed. It isn't enough that the people's enemy give up and go away - they must be terrorized into loving the State as is their duty and obligation. Even totalitarian states like North Korea which have utilized the emigration release-valve sub-rosa can't *admit* that they're doing this, or else it would wreck their institutional amour propre.
And I got the impression that the East Germany political collapse wasn't so much the fact that 1% of the population left, as that they came back - with stuff and notions to go along with the stuff.
randomly sampled opinion polling of chinese students returning from abroad, and of urban chinese citizens who have traveled abroad, show that these folks express higher levels of amity toward other countries and lower levels of perceived identity difference toward people in other countries compared to those who haven't had these experiences. there is a potential selection bias problem in some instances, but data for those who go abroad because they are sent on a business or government delegation (not because they choose to go to study or travel), suggest that even these folks have more positive views of the outside world than those who haven't gone abroad. so there seems to be some tentative evidence that going abroad can reduce levels of enmity toward other countries and certain xenophobic tendencies.
Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
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