Josie Delap and Robert Lane Greene have a smart, short essay in TNR Online that looks aqt how the Arab commetariat is reacting to the Obama phenomenon. The takeaway paragraph:
Most Arab columnists writing about Obama have concluded that the exigencies of American politics undermine any efforts by politicians to change the country's foreign policy in the region. "With every American election, Arabs investigate the potential presidents, while forgetting that every American president who enters the White House will be governed by American interests and by the information that is presented to him," Alhomayed wrote. "Our problems have been left to us to deal with, and we are the biggest losers."
That's pretty savvy analysis, if you ask me. More generally, I think the notion that mere election of Obama would represent a "soft power surge" as it were, should be tempered. It's not that there would be no Obama effect. It's just that it would be concentrated in places where elites are enthusiastic about him and his policies. This would mean Europe, Africa and Latin America, I suspect. Other regions -- the Middle East, Russia and Asia -- might be less receptive.
[
What about McCain?--ed. He would certainly get an enthusiastic reception in East Asia, and given his trade policies I expect Latin America and any country that wanted an FTA with the United States would be keen on him. He would play less well in Europe, Russia and the Middle East.]
UPDATE: Oh, there's also this from Greene and Delap: "The idea that some might consider him a "Muslim apostate," as Edward Luttwak
controversially proposed in
The New York Times, has been notably absent from Arabic op-ed pages."
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