Let's call this The Nexon Conversion

Posted By Daniel W. Drezner Saturday, August 16, 2008 - 4:34 AM Share

In his latest post, Daniel Nexon asks a valid question:

What will it take for the Georgians to figure out that South Ossetia and Abkhazia... Are gone. They. Are. Never. Coming. Back. Ever. They weren't before the war. If it weren't a mathematical impossibility, I would say that the events of the last week reduced the chances of Georgia regaining the two territories from zero to an even smaller value of zero.

In the spirit of cheesy Robert Ludlum three-word titles, let's call this The Nexon Conversion. This happens when a foreign policy leader stops demanding policy reversals that are never going to happen. Two examples from the Russia-Georgia conflict. First, the Financial Times reports that Condoleezza Rice is demanding that Russia withdraw its forces from all of Georgian soil "immediately." Right. Because Russia will definitely do that now that the United States has demanded it publicly. Second, the FT also reports that Russia is so upset at Poland for signing a missile-shield agreement with the United States that it's making loose nuclear threats against the country. Right. Because on top of invading Georgia, issuing these kind of warnings will definitely convince Poland that Moscow is not a threat. Way too many people in positions of power need the Nexon Conversion right now.

EXPLORE:INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, GEORGIA, IDIOTS IN POWER, RUSSIA

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MINOS

6:26 PM ET

August 16, 2008

I love it...if this is the

I love it...if this is the "Nexon Conversion", I would propose the verb "to Nexon":

To step back and realize the difference between reality and desire. I want a pony. Unless I amass the resources, however, to get someone to give me a pony, it just ain't gonna happen. An awful lot of bad foreign policy thought results from a failure to Nexon. We realize that situation X is not what we would like it to be, and thus we fantasize that with the right policy, that situation X would match our desires.

http://kaphtor.blogspot.com/2008/08/ill-see-dan-drezners-new-term-and-raise.html

VITALIY

7:22 PM ET

August 16, 2008

Dan, I'm guessing you meant

Dan, I'm guessing you meant "...a foreign policy leader starts demanding..." not "stops"?

MARTIN

7:51 PM ET

August 16, 2008

I somehow suspect that you

I somehow suspect that you wouldn't have so much fun with it if somebody said this about the Palestinians.

HURT

3:09 AM ET

August 17, 2008

Somebody want to explain to

Somebody want to explain to me again what we're doing putting missile sites in Poland and the Czech Republic? To counter Iran? Is that it??

SARAH

9:01 PM ET

August 17, 2008

A third failure by Russia to

A third failure by Russia to adhere to the "nexon conversion"...

Russia - "we don't want western influences on our patch...therefore...let's scare the hell out of the ex-soviet states that we can invade at any time..."

Result: Ukraine now wants to hand over ex-russian satellite bases to the US and EU

SMK

4:32 PM ET

August 18, 2008

Bah, we Celtics fans went

Bah, we Celtics fans went through this years ago, though it has a different name, The Pitino Meltdown:

"Larry Bird's not walking through that door fans... Kevin McHale's not walking through that door and Robert Parish is not walking through that door. And if you expect them to come walking through that door, they're going to be gray and old."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICdXAmd1TWA

PIGILITO

10:23 PM ET

August 18, 2008

You got number of words and

You got number of words and the first word of any Ludlum title right. There was (is?) a guy that knew consitency. Read one of his books and you've pretty much read them all - just like James Michener.

ANDREW STEELE

4:07 AM ET

August 19, 2008

I would assume that Rice's

I would assume that Rice's demands of Russia were meant as much for the future as they were for the current situation in Georgia. It wasn't so much the expectation that Russia would immediately withdraw from Georgia as it was to say that Russia should be careful about how aggressive it becomes.

Perhaps it was empty rhetoric, but sometimes to demand a "policy reversal that's never going to happen" is to make a play in a larger negotiation. The relationship between Russia and the West is in flux, and the statements that people make need to be thought of in a broader context. International relationships always exist on a slippery slope, and throwing out absolute demands like Rice's are meant to send messages.

Russia's "loose nuclear threats" against Poland are the same thing -- a play in a bigger game in which each side probes and provokes the other. Obviously Poland won't think of Russia as less of a threat, but Russia doesn't care what Poland thinks. It does these things to prod the U.S. and its allies; to see how far it can push and how hard the West will push back.

Russia is currently on the offensive, and the U.S. and its allies need to respond with a broader view than the particularistic one Nexon's Conversion suggests.