Fred Savage and international relations

Posted By Daniel W. Drezner Tuesday, August 19, 2008 - 1:34 PM Share

Here's a tip to readers interested in world politics -- be very, very wary of what I like to label Wonder Years approaches to international relations. A Wonder Years approach to IR looks at an event and concludes that the world will never be the same ever again. Which is true in a literal sense but not of much use in interpreting events. Need an example of a Wonder Years argument? I give you Stratfor's George Friedman:

The post-Cold War world, the New World Order, ended with authority on Aug. 8, 2008, when Russia and Georgia went to war. Certainly, this war was not in itself of major significance, and a very good case can be made that the New World Order actually started coming apart on Sept. 11, 2001. But it was on Aug. 8 that a nation-state, Russia, attacked another nation-state, Georgia, out of fear of the intentions of a third nation-state, the United States. This causes us to begin thinking about the Real World Order.

Why, yes, I can't think of another post-Cold War conflict involving breakway provinces. Oh, wait.... Look, as significant events go in world politics go, a great power's invasion of its small, fragmented neighbor does not rank that high.* Even from a American-centric perspective, North Korea's acquisition of nuclear weapons -- and the Bush administration's policy reversal on said weapons -- ranks as more significant. The rise of China and India are way more important. Things do change in international relations -- but Fred Savage/Daniel Stern epiphanies are pretty damn rare. One caveat: the event does move up the importance scale if Russia decides to annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Expect to hear lots of "Alsace-Loraine" language then. *NOT TO BE READ AS AN ENDORSEMENT OF RUSSIA'S BEHAVIOR.

EXPLORE:INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, FAUX EPIPHANIES, GEORGIA, RUSSIA

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DPT

2:33 PM ET

August 19, 2008

Personally, I'd say the fact

Personally, I'd say the fact that it's Russia is a more significant thing about the conflict, not that such a conflict is happening at all. Given the recent developments in Poland & the Ukraine, this little war seems to be pulling its weight on the international scene. If it were Azerbaijan and Armenia fighting, nobody would care. But Russia is a great power (certainly moreso than Serbia or Ethiopia), and Russia has a lot of neighbors it doesn't quite get along with.

The things that didn't change matter a lot too - Russia's tougher policy is a return to business as usual for Russia, which poses pretty significant challenges to the worldview of many idealists and internationalists.

But you're right that NK's nuclear program is of more importance. Nuclear proliferation is a serious thing, even if it isn't as flashy as a war. I do think there's a good chance Russia will annex at least one of the reigons, though - many South Ossetians have Russian passports, and they will rely on Russia for economic growth and security. There are "Our President" billboards with Vladimir Putin on them. Given the chance, they will vote for an "independence" arrangement that makes them a Russian client, if not outright inclusion in the Russian Federation. Abkhazia is a bit bigger and may have a better shot at going it alone, but there is a fairly good chance of them voting themselves into Russia as well.

ZATHRAS

10:53 PM ET

August 19, 2008

I wonder that no one has

I wonder that no one has suggested to Russia's government that it not simply offer to buy south Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia.

Purchase of territory is no longer a common thing, but in the 19th century it happened all the time. The United States in particular offered some financial compensation even for most of the territory it conquered in war. In retrospect it does rather appear that all the deals involving American purchases of territory were rank swindles of other governments, and one of these was Russia's.

But that happened when Russia sold Alaska, and what I'm suggesting is that it be a buyer this time. No doubt negotiations over the price of the two Georgian territories would be contentious, but oil-rich Russia is flush now, and offering to purchase them would be a way to assuage Western fears that Russia's government wasn't just looking for excuses to send armored columns across its neighbors borders. It would also spare Russia's leaders and spokesmen what must be the onerous duty of repeating in public the most pathetic lies about Georgian genocide and aggression on Georgia's own territory, Russia's noble peacekeeping, and so forth. Vladimir Putin may feel the pull of nostalgia for the Soviet Union of his youth, when lying constantly about everything with an absolutely straight face was a mark of distinction. Really, though, outside the context of the Soviet Communist system that sort of conduct is considered about as uncultured as bathing only when the moon is full.

It's just a suggestion. Proposing a transaction of this kind doesn't have to be a precedent for anything. It would just be a way for Russia to signal that she isn't looking to subjugate her neighbors just for fun, and genuinely wants to end a crisis on terms compatible with everyone's self-respect.

AGD

11:20 PM ET

August 19, 2008

I agree that this is not "the

I agree that this is not "the beggining of a new era in IR", yet I would like to note that while it is not the first post Cold War conflict involving separatist regions, it is the first in which a world power attacks another state without the blessing of the United States. So I guess my conclussion would be "not life-changing, yet not irrelevant".

DOUG

7:12 AM ET

August 20, 2008

One of the key post-Cold War

One of the key post-Cold War assumptions about Europe and the North Atlantic has been that Russia is relatively benign and satisfied, that it is willing to work within existing (or newly revised) institutions to achieve its goals by peaceful means. If that assumption no longer holds, it is a big deal.

Russia could pull the "protecting our citizens" stunt with three members of the European Union, which would be an important change in the European security environment.

Very few people give a damn about Tskhinvali as such, but what it tells us about Russia could be significant indeed.

USELESS SAM GRANT

11:41 AM ET

August 20, 2008

Why anyone ever assumed

Why anyone ever assumed Russians would somehow become fundamentally different just because they were no longer "communist" is a mystery to me. Since before Ivan the Terrible, the Russians have been a ruthless paranoid culture bent on "protecting" Russia through domination of their neighbors. There never was any such thing as a "new world order" or "the end of history." Too many naive people in important places forgot history.