Wednesday, October 1, 2008 - 2:19 AM
Investors in gold are demanding “unprecedented” amounts of bullion bars and coins and moving them into their own vaults as fears about the health of the global financial system deepen. Industry executives and bankers at the London Bullion Market Association annual meeting said the extent of the move into physical gold was unseen and driven by the very rich. “There is an enormous pick-up in investment demand. I have never seen a market like this in my 33-year career,” said Jeremy Charles, chairman of the LBMA. “The gold refineries cannot produce enough bars.” The move comes as fears grow among investors over the losses at investment vehicles previously considered almost risk-free, such as money funds. Philip Clewes-Garner, associate director of precious metals at HSBC, added that investors were not flying into gold simply because they saw it as a haven amid Wall Street’s woes. “It is a flight into gold because it is a physical asset,” he said. “Vault staff are also doing overtime,” another banker at the LBMA meeting said, adding that investors in some countries were paying premiums of up to $25 an ounce above the London spot price to secure scarce gold bars. Spot gold prices in London on Tuesday traded at about $900 an ounce, more than 25 per cent above the level before Lehman Brothers’ collapse.[But the stock market!! The stock market!!--ed. Two things. First, even dead cats bounce back. Second, equity markets are not as important as credit markets, and those markets are more constipated than my great Aunt Frieda. The TED spread is still over 300 basis points.]
Before I react to this, I'd like to know who these investors are. I suspect that they are not investors in developed countries, but wealthy folks in underdeveloped countries who store their financial assets in places other than their own countries.
On the other hand, US silver eagles are in short supply around the country and are being purchased for somewhere around $5 above spot.
Klug: if you clicked through to the FT story, you'd have seen this: "Last week, the US mint suspended the sale of its American Buffalo coin after it ran out of stocks."
This is not just about wealthy individuals in developing countries.
For those wondering, the sky does still appear to be in place, and the only way to unfreeze the credit markets is to kill the bailout for good so people who are holding those mortgage backed securities who won't accept $.30/$1.00 right now will not keep holding them hoping Paulson will pay $0.50/$1.00 for them next week.
No one wants to be the patsy who sells too early and that's causing the problem. Kill the bailout. Kill it good and dead, and the problems will begin to work themselves out. As long as the bailout looks like a possibility, the lockdown will remain.
[But the market, the market -ed]
Two things, even bear markets have grizzly days AND
Market, we don't need no steenkin' market. The 3 month futures contracts for the Mongolian Tögrög, that's what you wanna watch!
Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
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