Monday, October 20, 2008 - 1:16 PM
By the spring, the McCain campaign had reportedly sent scouts to Alaska to start vetting Palin as a possible running mate. A week or so before McCain named her, however, sources close to the campaign say, McCain was intent on naming his fellow-senator Joe Lieberman, an independent, who left the Democratic Party in 2006. David Keene, the chairman of the American Conservative Union, who is close to a number of McCain’s top aides, told me that “McCain and Lindsey Graham”—the South Carolina senator, who has been McCain’s closest campaign companion—“really wanted Joe.” But Keene believed that “McCain was scared off” in the final days, after warnings from his advisers that choosing Lieberman would ignite a contentious floor fight at the Convention, as social conservatives revolted against Lieberman for being, among other things, pro-choice. “They took it away from him,” a longtime friend of McCain—who asked not to be identified, since the campaign has declined to discuss its selection process—said of the advisers. “He was furious. He was pissed. It wasn’t what he wanted.” Another friend disputed this, characterizing McCain’s mood as one of “understanding resignation.” With just days to go before the Convention, the choices were slim. Karl Rove favored McCain’s former rival Mitt Romney, but enough animus lingered from the primaries that McCain rejected the pairing. “I told Romney not to wait by the phone, because ‘he doesn’t like you,’ ” Keene, who favored the choice, said. “With John McCain, all politics is personal.” Other possible choices—such as former Representative Rob Portman, of Ohio, or Governor Tim Pawlenty, of Minnesota—seemed too conventional. They did not transmit McCain’s core message that he was a “maverick.” Finally, McCain’s top aides, including Steve Schmidt and Rick Davis, converged on Palin. Ed Rogers, the chairman of B.G.R., a well-connected, largely Republican lobbying firm, said, “Her criteria kept popping out. She was a governor—that’s good. The shorter the Washington résumé the better. A female is better still. And then there was her story.” He admitted, “There was concern that she was a novice.” In addition to Schmidt and Davis, Charles R. Black, Jr., the lobbyist and political operative who is McCain’s chief campaign adviser, reportedly favored Palin. Keene said, “I’m told that Charlie Black told McCain, ‘If you pick anyone else, you’re going to lose. But if you pick Palin you may win.’ ” (Black did not return calls for comment.) Meanwhile, McCain’s longtime friend said, “Kristol was out there shaking the pom-poms.”I actually think Black's assessment was correct, but surely someone as obsessed with honor as John McCain might have cared just a little bit about post-election governing, no? *One meme that I've seen forming in the past month is that Palin has done fine except for the Katie Couric interview, and that was only because Couric asked follow-up questions. With all due respect, that's a load of bull. Her interviews with Gibson and Hannity were almost as bad as her Couric interactions. Her debate performance wore thin after the first 15 minutes. She's committed a variety of smaller gaffes at her campaign rallies. Between her convention speech and her Saturday Night Live appearance, almost every Palin action that a camera has recorded has not treated her favorably. She's been listed as a key reason for a string of conservative editorial board endorsements of Obama. This cannot be chalked up to a few miscues. Palin's campaign performance has been an abject disaster.
Face it Dan: It's love, or at least infatution. You are obsessing.
She isn't going to make a difference this year anyway, and in 2012 if the GOP nominates here sh might play Alf Landon to Obama's FDR; i.e. roadkill.
All this anti-Palin obsession among pundits diverts attention from the fact that McCain is the worst nominee the Republicans have ever had. He's the GOP version of Walter Mondale. His convention speech was horrid, his grasp on policy is tenuous and his whole resume boils down to being a POW and making people say they support this message. If the Republican primaries had been set up like the Democratic primaries, McCain wouldn't be on the ticket.
McCain was by far the best choice out of the Republican field. His "maverickness' (maverickocity?) appeals to independents, which is why they are almost evenly split between Obama and McCain. Romney or Huckabee would be losing independents by 15-20 points, and the GOP ticket would be losing by 12-15.
However, McCain trashed his own campaign with the Palin pick. She plays only to his base, and has turned off independents that McCain might otherwise have won. Had McCain made a different selection, I think he'd be running close to even rather than 5-6 points behind.
As an Obama supporter, I certainly hope that should Obama win, Republicans do nominate Palin in 2012. It would be a re-election landslide of 1972 or 1984 proportions.
"Her utter conviction that she already knows enough to become the leader of the free world, however, scares the living bejeezus out of me."
It's dubious whether or not she actually thinks such - she has to say it, but that's not the same as believing it to be true - but your buddy Obama said a few days ago that he was gonna change the WORLD, in effect I guess lead humanity to a brighter future [and unlike Palin, he didn't have to say such and therefore one assumes he actually does believe it] - that doesn't scare the bejeezus out of you Dan? I mean, c'mon: Palin may be delusional, Obama almost definitely is - and, apparently so, are his followers.
As for McCain - his bringing up Ayers last week is a perfect example of how confused and inept his campaign is: there's absolutely no point bringing up Ayers if you're not gonna talk about Wright as well because the point of both is either to establish a pattern of extreme liberalism or to paint Obama as a cynical opportunist- if you don't establish a pattern bringing up Ayers just looks like a smear, which is what happened. McCain's refusal to talk about Wright now that he's brought up Ayers is abysmally stupid. There's a pattern to Obama's affiliations that sits entirely outside mainstream America or is at complete odds with his would be transformative sermonizing and it's an argument that is fairly easy to make: that McCain has failed to make it is astounding - much more astounding than naming Palin VP - that was very risky, but made sense regardless, although I would have gone with Romney.
I agree with you, Daniel - that kind of incurious certainty really bothers me. It's the same type of thing that you see turn up about Bush's decision-making in books like Bob Woodward's "The War Within", where he basically gets this solid conviction on something and pushes, pushes, pushes to get it done. It can be helpful (it got the Surge going at a time of great unpopularity), but also very hurtful (it prevented Bush from switching strategies to the more classical counter-insurgency efforts like what Petraeus wanted to do and what Col. McMaster did in 2005 in Tall Afar sooner, like in 2005-2006).
Do we really want another ignorant decider in the White House? Barack Obama's not exactly experienced, but at least you don't get the impression from him that he'll launch himself gung ho into something; he's more calculating.
I feel reasonably certain that essays in The New Yorker have never done anyone in. OK, maybe some Broadway producer. But how many Undecideds are going to The New Yorker to make up their minds about this election?
OK, maybe some Broadway producer.
I've also heard they can absolutely destroy interior decorators.
I've got to admit I was re-thinking my Palin position. So I went back and watched her interviews before she was VP nominee. The woman is sharp. And for some reason the quirky speech mannerisms (you betcha!) are much less pronounced. Indeed she was able to achieve the governorship by an incredibly gutsy move.
As to her supposed disdain for policy experts, that assertion flies in the face of her successful re-negotiation of oil and gas leases with major oil companies and her work on a trans-Alaskan gas pipeline. Obviously she isn't doing this stuff personally, but hired people who are. She's even got her folks meeting the ruskies. Its funny, the anti-Palin people are spinning this meeting as hipocracy (sp?) but I see it as more proof of competence.
As for Palin being a liability, its a close call. I've seen polls showing which work out to something like a 4% disadvantage. At the same time, polls don't matter, votes do. I suspect Palin is going to help with the 'base' turnout.
If you ask me, its really John McCain that has been the disaster. He really started sinking with his 'suspend the campaign' stunt, running back to Washington in order to sit on the sidelines a while Treasury and ritual the Democratic leadership went through a kabuki of negotiation. And the public didn't like it. And it didn't work, at least not in the way those wanting 'urgent' action said it would. So McCain managed to look excitable and ineffectual and foolish while simultaneously pissing off the public. Not bad for an old pro.
"Palin has done fine except for the Katie Couric interview, and that was only because Couric asked follow-up questions."
Last I heard a President might be asked follow-up questions by somebody. Or is that not fair? (whine whine they're not playing fair!)
On the Rev Wright issue, I suspect McCain doesn't want the ministers with whom he has curried favor (Hagee, anyone?) or Palin's Assembly of God examined too closely. It takes only a few minutes to figure out that Hagee and a lot of Palin's fellow churchgoers are nutjobs too.
She would be very likable if she would only stop lying, but big, bold, and often, just doesn't make up for telling the truth.
Thank goodness. I mean thank goodness you're not going to write about her anymore cos your stuff about her is absurd. You're scared of her confidence? Her campaign at rallies where plenty lovelovelove her is an abject failure? Please man. you have a rather bloated sense of self importance.
By all means, think she has not performed well on camera. She has not answered questions fluently. She isn't effete enuff for La Noonan, whatever. The woman is the only actual Governor and at that she has excelled. After this election is done - and please God let Obama and Biden win so people like you can stop behaving like big ninnys - we can tot up Drezner as another Palin pileon who splurged all his credibility playing out his snobbery on the internet.
Palin has done fine except for the Katie Couric interview, and that was only because Couric asked follow-up questions.
Wow. Whoever's pushing that is really struggling. Actually, it's self-defeating.
"She's fine as long as you don't probe her non-answers."
Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
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