Tuesday, October 28, 2008 - 6:56 PM
I’m sympathetic to [Tucker] Eskew and [Nicolle] Wallace, and not just because they’re decent people. They’ve held their tongue from leaking what a couple of McCain higher-ups have told me—namely, that Palin simply knew nothing about national and international issues. Which meant, as one such adviser said to me: “Letting Sarah be Sarah may not be such a good thing.” It’s a grim binary choice, but apparently it came down to whether to make Palin look like a scripted robot or an unscripted ignoramus (emphasis added).Of course, this speaks just as badly of McCain as it does of Palin. He's the one who wedged himself into a Palinesque dilemma. UPDATE: Given all the speculation about Palin in 2012, it should be noted that just because she was uninformed in September 2008 does not mean she'll stay that way. I'll be interested to see what course she charts over the next few years. ANOTHER UPDATE: Conor Friedersdorf is immune to irrational arguments about Palin:
In case you haven’t been paying attention, an enormous turnout at an Obama rally means that he is a celebrity cult leader who talks pretty to his mindless supporters but lacks substance, whereas smaller crowds turning out to see Palin prove that she is the best decision John McCain has ever made, and that she is obviously qualified to be vice-president.
I've said what I had to say about that ignorant woman, but I don't see any heroes in this story. Tucker Eskew and Nicolle Wallace get bouquets from Draper -- probably because they were both sources -- but they are the kind of people who made the campaign Sen. McCain is running now possible. They are the very core, the essence of Bush Republicanism. It's ironic but somehow fitting that they would stumble so managing a Vice Presidential candidate that the GOP base loves because she brings to the table so many of the things Bush did eight years ago.
It’s a grim binary choice, but apparently it came down to whether to make Palin look like a scripted robot or an unscripted ignoramus
And she ended up looking like a scripted ignoramus...
My own conclusion is that Sarah palin is a talented politician who is so blessedly ignorant of national and international political issues that she should not be allowed anywhere near the Vice Presidency. She does not know enough to know what she does not know --a very dangerous thing. She's also likly destroyed as a national politician, which, I have a feeling, is unfortunate.
Nevertheless, I have no respect for the McCain aides who are now whining about Palin. They picked her. And they did so without bothering to check her out. We're supposed to think they are smart and honorable? Feh!
a revelation that hardly comes as a shock - but says much more about McCain's shortcomings than Palin's, no? And in fact can be interpreted as making Palin look good in sense that if it's true she 'knew nothing' then you could say she's done surprisingly well - a qualified well, but well all the same - and 'knowing nothing' is not the same as being stupid - a lot of people seem to be making the assumption that Sarah ain't too bright but the truth about that has yet to be revealed.
No, this says much more about how awful a campaign McCain has run - and, consequently, how once you get past Obama's core of giddy enthusiasts his support is quite weak - he should be running away with this thing and yet McCain is hanging around - and that's not because of racism - it's because independents realize how much of a roll of the dice voting for Obama is gonna be. Sure, support for any candidate amounts to a roll of the dice - but with affairs as they stand now? There's craps and then there's craps.
It amazes me to see what Palin haters have to say about her. For example, I don't get how someone can say she is destroyed as a national politician, when she pulls larger crowds than McCain, and there is current discussion in the media about her 2012 Presidential prospects.
I've come to appreciate the following post a great deal:
http://volokh.com/posts/1224543367.shtml
Considering Biden's touted experience, he seems *far* superior to Palin in the ignoramus competition. After, what, 36 years in the Senate, he still doesn't understand the VP's role there. But when asked whether she would consider running as VP, she says she wants to know more about what she would actually do day to day, she's a moron.
But, go ahead, enjoy yourselves.
Justin:
Palin might be able to win a 2012 primary campaign if Huckabee does not run (hah!). I don't see her winning a general election, with the memory of Tina Fey remaining in everyone's heads. Remember Dan Quayle's efforts to be taken seriously as a primary candidate in 1996? I think Palin's going to have it worse in this regard.
Now, perhaps in 2020, an older wiser Palin with more years in elective office would make a fine candidate. The question is whether the lightweight reputation would linger that long. A somewhat lightweight VP candidate named Franklin Roosevelt was buried in 1920, when the US decided it was tired of the original Wilsonian and just wanted a return to Normalcy. If history repeats itself, America could be very ready for Sara Palin in 2020.
I think she's got a good shot at the presidency in '12, especially if our economy stays weak. She speaks to small towns and the heartland the way Obama speaks to cities and academia. She just has no experience or knowledge of foreign affairs, among other things. She seems to have an attractive libertarian streak, as well. A Palin/Jindal ticket could be powerful.
I'm always impressed by the number of people prepared to grant to Presidential aspirants a benefit of doubt they'd never extend to plumbers, heating contractors, or third year quarterbacks on their favorite football team. "Yeah, she's ignorant, but she'll learn. Just put her in a position to learn from her mistakes, and watch her grow into the role."
It's as if we didn't go through this very same exercise eight years ago. It seems that most of the people who'd like to do it again think the last eight years worked out just fine, and that's your split in the Republican Party right there. Bush Republicans have good reason to see in Gov. Palin a lot of the things they liked about Bush. Non-Bush Republicans see the same things, and would be very happy if the Bush administration turned out to be a once in a lifetime experience.
Justin,
You, like the Volokh post you cite, seem to conflate Palin actually being qualified or innately skilled enough for a POTUS/VPOTUS job and "other people thinking so."
Because that's really the point of the post on Volokh: she has a high approval rating, so therefore you must decide a binary choice of: Alaskans are dumb or Palin is good.
And you say much the same, that she can't be that bad if she pulls bigger crowds than McCain and there is "media discussion" about her prospects in 2012.
The bottom line is that:
(1) Saying she's "not necessarily a bad politician" isn't the same as her being a good one;
(2) Being popular and being smart/qualified do not always go hand in hand
(3) Many of us have legitimate reasons for not liking Palin, including her lack of experience, serious questions about her integrity (now the travel investigation beginning), and faux-libertarian streak. Her hypocrisy may be no worse than other politicians, but a fraudulent persona is never appealing.
Dan's post seems a bit naive in giving such credence to only one side of the infighting in the McCain campaign.
Moreover, he's missing the larger point. Certainly, a foreign-policy professor is going to want a foreign-policy wonk as VP. And Charles Fried is going to want a Washington insider. And Eskew and Wallace want a candidate whom they backed and can claim credit for.
But the fact remains: Politically, Palin was unquestionably the best pick the McCain campaign could have made, with the possible exception of Mike Huckabee. Picking any of the other major contenders would have dropped quietly into the news void in the wake of the Democratic convention, and the McCain campaign would have been declared dead in the water as soon as the Republican convention was over (cf. Dole/Kemp).
You don't have to like her, but in terms of serving his short-term goals (i.e., of getting elected, without which there can be no long-term goals), there's no better choice that McCain could have made. (Friedersdorf unconsciously acknowledges this point when he compares Palin to Obama rather than to Biden).
Re: 8. That's because so much of the skill set for a successful president involves qualities that are largely innate, such as judgment and persuasiveness, rather than an accumulation of specific knowledge. In this regard, it may be instructive to recall that Bush I and Nixon were far more immersed in the wonky details of the issues that confronted them than were Reagan and Eisenhower.
It seems that most of the people who’d like to do it again think the last eight years worked out just fine, and that’s your split in the Republican Party right there.
But George W Bush was the successful governor of the 'big' state, into his second term. He had been around the establishment all his life, had the Ivy degrees. So let's put to rest the trop that he was some sort of Palinesque outsider. Or rather, let's put to rest the trope that Palin has much in common with George W. Bush. Obama has more in common with Bush than does Palin, in terms of background. The worse thing that might happen is that Palin would be influenced by the same sort of policy circles that brought you Eye-raq. But I suspect that Palin has too much indpendence and native judgement and plain old common sense to be led down that road.
Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
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