Things I do not want to talk about until 2010

Posted By Daniel W. Drezner Tuesday, November 11, 2008 - 2:15 PM Share

James Pethokoukis has a long post arguing that the economy is in such bad shape it will still be bad by 2012, making Barack Obama a one-term president. I have three thoughts about this:

James Pethokoukis really needs a vacation. Seriously. A couple days away from the computer and I bet Pethokoukis' perspective will return in no time, and we'll stop having to read cocoon-like posts.
For me, this kind of speculation falls into the same category as all the bloviating about Sarah Palin's political fortunes in 2012. Which is to say, it's too f$%^ing early to speculate. Pethokoukis tries to sketch out how the recession will play out, but he doesn't really know. No one knows. Sometimes it's better to just admit that. I could look at the current situation and start musing about the political business cycle -- but that would be foolhardy.
In his analysis, Pethokoukis (and others) are omitting an important political fact. From January 2009 onwards the Obama administration will a great political excuse -- they'll simply repeat the mantra, "it's going to take a long time to clean up the economic mess left by the Bush administration." Whether is is an accurate statement or not is irrelevant -- this is exactly what the Reagan administration said during the recession of the early eighties.

Now, I don't want to have to talk about this for another two years, so nobody mess with me. UPDATE: Marc Ambinder explains why 2010 won't be like 1994.

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A.S.

3:59 PM ET

November 11, 2008

"From January 2009 onwards

"From January 2009 onwards the Obama administration will a great political excuse — they’ll simply repeat the mantra, “it’s going to take a long time to clean up the economic mess left by the Bush administration.” Whether is is an accurate statement or not is irrelevant — this is exactly what the Reagan administration said during the recession of the early eighties."

Yeah, I remember how the Bush Administration got away with blaming the 2001 recession on Clinton. Not.

KLUG

5:32 PM ET

November 11, 2008

Darn tootin'. Obama will get

Darn tootin'. Obama will get to blame damn near everything on Bush until 2011, I'll bet.

ROB

5:38 PM ET

November 11, 2008

It all depends on whether

It all depends on whether Obama actually follows through with his class-warfare jig that helped get him elected. If he does, he's a one-termer for sure, and we'll almost certainly see Dow 5000 (the Dow's already down over 1000 points since his election); if he moves to the center, he's got a shot at a second term, because we'll likely start coming out of this recession a year or so before his re-election bid.

JOHN THACKER

11:10 PM ET

November 11, 2008

Whether is is an accurate

Whether is is an accurate statement or not is irrelevant — this is exactly what the Reagan administration said during the recession of the early eighties.

That would be when the Democrats picked up 27 seats in the House in 1982, yes?

DON STADLER

12:54 AM ET

November 12, 2008

Dan is correct as far as he

Dan is correct as far as he goes, it IS way too early to predict 2012 or even 2010. But by bashing Pethokoukis he ignores the other part of the problem, well over half of it.

For every Pethokoukis there are 10 or 15 left-leaning pundits shouting 'realignment'! In this field many are called but very few are chosen. In fact there is only one certain choice. The 1932 election was a thunderous realignment and no mistake. I have to think it was blindingly obvious even at the time. In 1928 Hoover took every state except the old South and Massachusetts, in 1932 Roosevelt turned the map blue, with only Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and most of New England going for Hoover.

Jay Cost writes: "Unlike in 1860 or 1896, a very broad transregional consensus emerged. As famed newspaper editor William Allen White later observed, the election of 1932 signaled "a firm desire on the part of the American people to use government as an agency for human welfare." "

HT: Jay Cost's Horserace blog http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/11/is_2008_a_realignment.html

So ask yourself whether we're seeing a national concensus emerging - or merely a reaction to an extremely unpopular president, as in 1974-76? My feeling is that the shift may be stronger than in 1976 because Obama won by a wider margin than Carter did in 1976. But the economic situation facing him may be more difficult if anything. Unlike Roosevelt in 1932 Obama enters office at the beginning of the recession, not 3 years into it. If it is as nasty and long-lasting as predicted he's going to have to explain it away and blaming Bush won't do after a point.