Rise of the public universities, part deux

As I blogged earlier this month, one of the unanticipated effects of the global recession will be the increased competitiveness of public universities.  Part of this is due to a narrowing of resources, as shrinking endowments constrain richer private schools.  The Boston Globe's Peter Schworm drops the other shoe in this narrative -- due to budget constraints, public universities are about to get an influx of better students: 

Students are applying to the state's public colleges and universities in record numbers, as the nation's financial crisis forces more families to consider less expensive schools. The new application figures confirm a widely forecast "flight to price" among students. They also follow a sharp increase in fall enrollment in the public system, which consists of 15 community colleges, nine state colleges, and the five University of Massachusetts campuses. The increase will sharpen competition for spots in this fall's freshman classes, bumping some students who in previous years could have counted on being admitted, college counselors say. Applications for early admission to UMass-Amherst, the state's flagship campus, rose 29 percent over last year, and applications for regular admission have climbed 23 percent at UMass-Lowell. Framingham State and Westfield State colleges have seen more than 40 percent increases in applicants from this time a year ago, while the Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts in North Adams has seen a 60 percent jump. Early-action applications at the Massachusetts College of Art and Design in Boston have risen 75 percent.... With most four-year public colleges unable to handle a significant increase in enrollment, the heightened competition will probably have a ripple effect across the state, college officials and high school guidance counselors say. The shift toward public colleges takes place as small private colleges in Massachusetts, which educate a sizable portion of the state's low- and moderate-income students, grapple with heavy financial losses from stock market declines, jeopardizing their ability to award financial aid. "You might have a perfect storm where public colleges will be the only place to get your foot in the door, and they don't have enough seats," said Bob Giannino-Racine, executive director of ACCESS, a Boston nonprofit that helps students find ways to afford college. "They've always been a fail-safe, but now they have a real challenge to remain places of access."

I seriously doubt that this phenomenon is limited to the state of Massachusetts.