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Make your predictions for 2009!!

Wed, 12/31/2008 - 10:41pm

Consider this an open thread for predictions of what will happen in 2009.... which movie will win Best Picture? Which team will win the World Series? Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? Which Obama cabinet member, if any, will step aside before the end of the year? Looking back on my 2008 predictions, I only batted .500. Therefore, I'm not making any predictions for next year, except that this blog will cease to exist -- which is as predictable as saying that Gazprom will, like clockwork, cut off gas to a former Soviet republic in early January.

Daniel W. Drezner | Permalink |

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culture | politics | predictions | punditry

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Happy New Year.

by Almost too easy (not verified) on Thu, 01/01/2009 - 7:47am

Happy New Year.

I predict that 1. The first

by Brett (not verified) on Thu, 01/01/2009 - 3:35pm

I predict that

1. The first attempt at universal health care will come in mid-March, and it will fail. Not catastrophically, but the attempt to create universal coverage right then will not work, and the Democrats will then simply create pieces of it in legislation along with a SCHIP expansion.

2. Mexico's PRI is going to make major gains in Mexico's Assembly, reducing the PAN to a smaller minority (they're a minority right now, but they're the biggest minority, as none of the Mexican parties have 50% or more of the seats).

3. There will be an assassination attempt on Felipe Calderon.

4. Russia will burn through more than 75% of its foreign reserves by October, and will be struggling to stimulate its economy while discreetly looking at the IMF just in case.

5. The IMF is going to get a major expansion in its funds supply.

6. The Chinese growth rate will drop below 4%. Exports will fall off by nearly 60%. Expect much rumblings.

What a fun exercise! Here's

by Shawn McPhail (not verified) on Fri, 01/02/2009 - 9:30pm

What a fun exercise! Here's my list:

1) Shocked reporters provide breathless coverage of wildfires in southern California (Oct 2009)
2) Global cooling to continue: http://anhonestclimatedebate.wordpress.com/2008/10/31/news-reports-for-october-indicate-global-cooling/ (throughout 2009)
3) Wider awareness that conservatives are actually more charitable than liberals. (N. Kristof NYT 12/21/2008)
4) Iraq continues trajectory toward self sufficiency after her government holds another parliamentary election (late 2009)
5) Kim Jong-il will again do something irrational while the North Korean folks continue to enjoy a diet of rationed stone paste and fly larvae (Spring 2009)
6) UN will concoct a resolution condemning Israel after the pile of rubble, once known as Gaza, is processed into smaller chunks of rubble by precision weaponry (Feb 2009)
7) Israel will take action against Iranian nukes. More UN outrage and condemnation (Summer 2009)
8) Popular music will begin to re-incorporate melody and depth in lyrics. Politeness and manners will receive focus by the media. Reality TV will feature themes of personal character (slim chance 2009).
9) We will gain the capacity to recognize the heroes in the Iraq war. The 'victim soldier' will become unfashionable. Example: Battle of Fllujah (Movies will be funded in 2009 and released in 2010).
10) President Obama will not raise taxes. Though the first year of a presidency is the one where the big MO enables a change agenda to sail through Congress, President Obama will carefully choose his battles for the more liberal aspects of his agenda, perhaps saving them for 2010. Maybe limited socialization of health care in 2009?
11) Housing and the auto industry will show signs of recovery. Union clout will show significant erosion. (August 2009)
12) More licenses granted for nuclear power plants (throughout 2009)
13) Successful Ares 1-X test flight, a precursor to our next man-rated launch vehicle ( delyayed 1 mothn to Nov 2009)
14) Large Hadron Collider will go back online. After a successful full power event, analysis of the data will indicate the presence of the Higgs boson...the particle that gives mass to matter. This will be huge but the public will yawn. (Summer 2009)
15) Wooly Mammoth will be cloned: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/nov/20/genetics-zoology . Public will anti-yawn. (Winter 2009)
16) Many newspapers will file for bankruptcy (throughout 2009)
17) Private colleges and universities will begin to cut tuition due to flagging enrollments and competition from quality public institutions (throughout 2009)
18) Advanced astronomical techniques will reveal the first habitable planet orbiting a star other than our Sun. Habitable = water, oxygen, tolerable gravity. Big public yawn for now, but tremendous import for 1000 years from now (2009?)