Thursday, January 15, 2009 - 3:34 PM
The New York Times' Simon Romero reports that Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez is doing a 180 on allowing investment from evil rapacious capitalist pig-dogs Western oil companies:
President Hugo Chávez, buffeted by falling oil prices that threaten to damage his efforts to establish a Socialist-inspired state, is quietly courting Western oil companies once again.
Until recently, Mr. Chávez had pushed foreign oil companies here into a corner by nationalizing their oil fields, raiding their offices with tax authorities and imposing a series of royalties increases.
But faced with the plunge in prices and a decline in domestic production, senior officials have begun soliciting bids from some of the largest Western oil companies in recent weeks — including Chevron, Royal Dutch/Shell and Total of France — promising them access to some of the world’s largest petroleum reserves, according to energy executives and industry consultants here.
Their willingness to even consider investing in Venezuela reflects the scarcity of projects open to foreign companies in other top oil nations, particularly in the Middle East.
Chávez's actions pleasantly surprise me, because retrenchment and realpolitik were not the only option. One could have envisioned Chávez reacting by ratcheting up tensions with neighbors as a short-term solution. Although I suspect most Americans would prefer to see the back of Hugo, this kind of behavior suggests that Venezuela is never going to rise to the problem level of, say, Iran.
The willingness of the oil companies to re-enter the fray in Caracas is more intriguing. In recent years there has been a lot of loose talk about how holders of capital also hold the levers in a bargaining situation with debtors, because the latter must do what they can to please the former.
In fact, recent research suggests that when debtors violate their contracts, the price to be paid is often much less than anticipated. Chávez certainly seems quite aware of this fact.
What puzzles me is that Chávez's reputation does suggest that the moment oil prices go up again, he'll reverse course yet again and put the screws on his foreign investors. In understand that exploration opportunities are scarce, but the willingness of these firms to go back is item #345 on Things I Do Not Understand About Energy Markets.
Maybe they figure they can extract a good amount of oil before Chavez screws them over again (and he will, assuming he's still in power by the time oil prices go up - he will have to win that referendum allowing him to become a potential President-for-life). Or maybe they're thinking long-term and are hoping a potential successor government won't be so hostile to them as Chavez.
Or perhaps they're just greedy. We don't know what the terms are between the government and the foreign oil companies - perhaps the latter is really going to squeeze the balls of the former in order to get as much as they can out before Chavez takes their investments again.
Were they agile enough, it sounds like an interesting joint venture possibility for Raul Castro and Vlad Putins friends.
Now Chavez is going to Colombia to talk with Uribe (who he once described as an imperialist lapdog) about furthering bilateral economic ties.
Maybe the Brazilians spurned him - they like to think they're going to be the Big Man in South America.
The Evil Rapacious Capitalists?
Given Chavez track record, I think they will invest the minimum to keep the oil flowing, take the money, and run.
This is basically a management contract I think - from the ERC POV....
Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
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