Friday, January 30, 2009 - 10:35 AM
As I've said before, in recent months there is a danger of creeping protectionism getting in the way of countries enacting expansionary fiscal policies (and the bill that passed the House only reinforces this danger, by the way)
In the past few days at Davos, others have voiced this concern, but with a twist. Rather than complaining about the underprovision of a fiscal boost, some are complaining that the Americans are hogging all the expansionary plans. First, there's Russia:
A senior adviser to Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s president, has sharply criticised the scale of the new US administration’s economic rescue package and projected budget deficit, saying it would suck up liquidity from other global markets.
“What is discouraging is [President Barack] Obama’s statement that he is going to run a $1 trillion deficit for years to come. For us, that means that all the free liquidity in the world will run into American Treasury bills,” said Igor Yurgens, who heads a think-tank advising Mr Medvedev. “That liquidity will not be available in other parts of the world. For us, it will be worse.”
Mr Yurgens said the policy was akin to the “beggar thy neighbour” protectionist policies of the 1930s. “Of course [Mr Obama] expects the Chinese or Russians to buy US Treasury bills. That is pretty selfish and philosophically it is protectionism.”
He's not the only one making this complaint. The NYT's Nelson Schwartz has a good chronicle of these concerns:
Few people attending the World Economic Forum question the need to kick-start America’s economy, the world’s largest, with a package that could reach $1 trillion over two years. But the long-term fallout from increased borrowing by the federal government, and its potential to drive up inflation and interest rates around the world, seems to getting more attention here than in Washington.
“The U.S. needs to show some proof they have a plan to get out of the fiscal problem,” said Ernesto Zedillo, the former Mexican president who helped steer his country through a financial crisis in 1994. “We, as developing countries, need to know we won’t be crowded out of the capital markets, which is already happening.”....
“Even before Obama walked through the White House door, there were plans for $1 trillion of new debt,” said Niall Ferguson, a Harvard historian who has studied borrowing and its impact on national power. He now estimates that some $2.2 trillion in new government debt will be issued this year, assuming the stimulus plan is approved.
“You either crowd out other borrowers or you print money,” Mr. Ferguson added. “There is no way you can have $2.2 trillion in borrowing without influencing interest rates or inflation in the long-term.”
Meh. To be generous, these complaints are not completely without foundation. They are a little odd, however. If the United States does not engage in greater stimulus, then other countries are going to have to pick up the slack, or this recession will last a long time. Indeed, count me in the Martin Wolf/Brad Setser camp of those who would love to see other countries -- *cough* China, *cough* -- starting to boost their own consumption as a means for igniting global growth, because that would also help to redress the macroeconomic imbalances that are at the heart of the current predicament.
To date, however, the efforts by most of these other countries have been underwhelming. [What about China?--ed. Their stimulus has targeted investment rather than personal consumption, so yes, them too.] If I were Obama, I wouldn't trust other countries to provide the locomotive power necessary to get the global economy moving again. So I don't see how they can blame the United States for doing what they are choosing not to do.
That's one thing that concerns me, as well. Let's say Americans, chastened by years of debt and non-existent net savings, end up saving around 10% of their income, a year. That's 10%, or more (since a lot of American-consumption was debt-financed) that mostly likely isn't going towards consumption, at least in the short term. It's going into savings, which helps the US, US Banks, and investors, but that doesn't do a world of good for the export-oriented economies (and there are many of them).
How are they planning on dealing with this? It's all nice and well for people to demand that China pick up the slack, but most of China still has extremely low income and buying power, and without some form of safety net (which takes time to set up), they're basically pushing against a culture that for centuries has basically said "You should save," and the economic incentives to save.
Brett, I've seen figures (somewhere) which shows US savings way up in the most recent quarters, with predictions it will go up even further, perhaps to 10% of disposable income as you posit.
The answer Obama has will be the trillion $ stimulus plan.
I think that is the answer for President Medenev and the Chinese - that that huge US budgetary deficit may turn out to be largely self-financed from US savings and thus not nearly as 'beggar thy neighbor' as it would be if the US consumer continued to spend like a drunken sailor. Concievably the entire deficit could be financed internally (on net) if the savings rate on disposable income goes high enough.
Running the numbers, the US has a GDP of about $14 trillion, give or take. If disposable income is 70% of that then disposable income would come to $9.8 trillion, and 10% of that would be $980 billion.
Not saying the numbers ARE actually that high, mind you. It's a range. Savings rate might only go to 7%, but conversely much higher rates have been seen in economic history. The rate could go to 12 or 15%, which might self-finance the deficit.
Brett, I've seen figures (somewhere) which shows US savings way up in the most recent quarters, with predictions it will go up even further, perhaps to 10% of disposable income as you posit.
Good news for us Americans.
I think that is the answer for President Medenev and the Chinese - that that huge US budgetary deficit may turn out to be largely self-financed from US savings and thus not nearly as 'beggar thy neighbor' as it would be if the US consumer continued to spend like a drunken sailor. Concievably the entire deficit could be financed internally (on net) if the savings rate on disposable income goes high enough.
That's a good point. If the savings rate was high enough, the US could conceivably finance the deficit spending from its own savings, which wouldn't lead to as much "crowding out" of the Third World in terms of capital and bond markets. Of course, if Americans are saving a lot, then a stimulus wouldn't be more effective unless it overall increased the absolute size of the economy (and thus the absolute size of U.S. consumption) to make up for the change in consumption . I'm not exactly sure how to do - more workers working more jobs?
You know what I've been wondering about? Right now, the dollar is the World's Reserve Currency, and its value is going up because of investors buying T-bills for their security. Could the Federal Reserve conceivably buy a ton of T-Bills? It'd be inflationary (since the Reserve gets money from the Treasury, it'd be almost the same as if the Reserve was printing money and spending it), but perhaps if you were very careful about it . . .
Don't laugh - that was actually one of the justifications behind the United States National Bank back in post-colonial times in America. If I recall correctly, Hamilton, in part, wanted a National Bank so that it could lend money to the Federal government in times of war and so forth.
I get what they're saying, that if the US floats all this debt then it will be harder for other countries to float their own debt. But you really have to look at why US debt is so much more attractive; for China, for example, it helps to manipulate its currency. And no one wants to buy Russian debt these days, anyway.
Of course, none of this addresses the real protectionism being advanced in Obama's ridiculous 'stimulus package'. China would do well to do its best to stimulate its domestic demand and watch Obama drive us into insolvency, and then pick up the pieces.
We should also make plans in case they don't.
Another good point. Does anyone know of any reports or research out there done on how the US might mitigate a situation in which T-bills are no longer being purchased on a level to match desired federal spending?
China would do well to do its best to stimulate its domestic demand and watch Obama drive us into insolvency, and then pick up the pieces.
That's much easier said than done, which is why I don't expect China to be able to pick up the pieces so easily (in fact, I think their economy is going to get mauled - and already is, to some extent - by the decline in the US's ability to purchase Chinese imports, since the Export Economy is still China's key economic sector, along with the TVEs in agriculture).
Aside from cultural and economic incentives to save (and they are strong, with weak, dysfunctional safety nets plus a system where bribes for everything are pretty much rampant), most of the Chinese are just too poor to have any significant purchasing power. Rural farmers (of which there are more than 700 million) with an average income of $600/year, and urban residents with an average income of $2018/year are not going to be able to shoulder a very large amount of imports.
It's time to call the Pelosi/Obama bill what it truly is: a Democratic pork machine. No one in his right mind would stand back and say what Pelosi's crew has come up with, and to which Obama incredibly has given a blanket endorsement, will actually stimulate—let alone "kick-start"—the economy.
The discussions in Davos and on this blog seem to assume there is stimulus in the bill which will actually be measureable in 2010. Sorry. Not this bill.
Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
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