Posted By Daniel W. Drezner Share

Let's label this Drezner's Political Analogy of 2009: 

AIG bonuses are to the left side of the political spectrum as congressional earmarks are to the right side of the spectrum.

Why?  Well, these two things have a surprising amount in common. 

  • Neither of them poll terribly well;
  • Both of them reflect waste, inattention, and borderline corruption in handling the government's money;
  • Both issues force the other party to say something to indicate that they don't support these things;
  • Earmarks represent a very small percentage of the omnibus spending bill; bonuses represent a very small percentage of the AIG bailout;
  • So, given the current economic situation, both of them are huge honking distractons and do not matter a whole hell of a lot. 

Consider this from today's Times write-up

New York’s efforts against A.I.G. have overshadowed those of the Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, the official who is responsible for the financial bailout, along with the Federal Reserve. The White House and Treasury have been besieged by questions about why Mr. Geithner did not know sooner about the bonus payments due this month, and whether he could have done more to stop them, prompting White House officials to assert President Obama's continued confidence in Mr. Geithner.

If I was Mr. Geithner's press spokesman, here is what I would say in response to more media inquiries about this:

Mr. Geithner profusely apologizes for not devoting more attention to this matter.  He clearly devoted too much time to the G-20 summit, implementing the stimulus package, preparing the 2009 budget, and other piddling matters like that.  Clearly, instead, Mr. Geithner feels he should have devoted more attention to this issue, which does absolutely nothing to put the financial sector on a sounder financial footing.  I mean, it's not like he's the only guy in the building or anything.

Mr Geithner thanks the media and Congress for focusing so much on this dumb-ass issue.   

As you can see, there is very good reason why I'm not Tim Geithner's press spokesman. 

Let's be clear -- I'd like AIG officers not to get these bonuses, just as I'd like to see earmarks removed from the budget.  I just think the opportunity costs on focusing on these issues is pretty damn big. 

 

BILL HARSHAW

4:06 PM ET

March 18, 2009

When in Trouble

Also clear why you shouldn't strive for a career in politics.

When in trouble or in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout.

(from The Caine Mutiny)

 

BLUE13326

4:22 PM ET

March 18, 2009

They're useful symbols for

They're useful symbols for larger issues.

For the right, earmarks are symbols of wasteful spending and bloated government.

For the left, the bonuses are symbols of corporate greed and the inequality of our economic system.

As far as opportunity costs, the chattering class has been focusing on Rush Limbaugh for weeks; at least these issues are a bit closer to our problems.

 

SIGIVALD

11:15 PM ET

March 18, 2009

I recall reading - I think on

I recall reading - I think on McArdle's blog - that Treasury looked into "not giving them the bonuses", and the lawyers' response was basically "you can try, but they'll sue, and they'll probably win".

It's even worse than just opportunity cost of focusing on this - it's pure political theater, if the Treasury lawyers are right (and I imagine they are).

 

MUMPKIN

2:46 AM ET

March 19, 2009

Professor Drezner is correct.

Professor Drezner is correct. The bonuses represent less than one percent of the 170 billion the taxpayers have given AIG. Wouldn't it be more useful to focus on the other 99%?

More importantly, the bonuses probably have to be paid and not for the flimsy legal reasons being put forth. The fact is that AIG was destroyed by a small group of traders in London who made extremely bad bets. The bonuses are being paid to keep these same traders in place. If they leave there is nothing to prevent them from trading against the riskiest of AIG's remaining positions thereby causing further losses that would dwarf the bonuses.

 

WOLFBOY

2:56 AM ET

March 19, 2009

Running in circles

Granted the running in circles screaming and shouting is a bit much right now.

Nonetheless, let's not lose sight of the significant likelihood that fraud took place within AIGFP and many recipients of bonuses were complicit. Under these circumstances lawsuits by executives carry a substantial countersuit risk, giving the USG a lot of leverage to demand concessions or just say no. I expect the government to be zealous guardians of taxpayer money against fraud in this instance as in any other, and $100M is still a lot of money, even if small in comparison to the whole bailout.

 

BLUE13326

6:36 AM ET

March 19, 2009

Assuming there was fraud, it

Assuming there was fraud, it depends how far up the fraud went; if it goes high enough, then you'll have indemnification problems. Most upper mgmt. and certainly the board would be indeminified by the company for any legal action brought against them as part of their employment contracts; in which case the USG, as owner of the company, would eventually have to pay for any damages and legal costs of the executives for any suit that was brought against them. So, the USG would end up having to pay for any damages they won in suits the USG brought against the executives. Obviously, this wouldn't make much sense then for the USG to sue or countersue them.

There are ways around this, but it's a very tricky legal terrain.

 

WOLFBOY

3:02 AM ET

March 19, 2009

I believe you're wrong, Mumpkin...

...in suggesting that the bonuses are somehow required to keep employees in place into the future. My understanding is that the bonuses already paid were for retention through a date that has already passed (wouldn't make much sense otherwise). Retention into the future would require new agreements that would appear likely to face rather greater scrutiny, to say the least.

 

ZATHRAS

4:03 AM ET

March 19, 2009

Bonus Army, and Earmarks

No one who spends much of his professional life writing about IR theory should be too quick to dismiss huge honking distractions that do not matter a whole hell of a lot.

The Congressional assault on AIG's bonus army can be a useful entry point for legislators previously unconcerned with financial markets on their way to actually being able to legislate about them. Sticking it to derivatives traders who helped cause the current economic crisis is an eminently worthy undertaking by itself; if the effort accomplished nothing more than to make government officials start to view people working for large financial institutions less as peers and colleagues and more as people likely to scam the taxpayers if left unsupervised, it would be one of the most useful things Congress has done in years.

Not for nothing, incidentally, but the process argument about earmarks -- the one John McCain was making, by himself, before he ever decided to run for President -- goes to the decay at the very heart of the American system of government. Representatives and Senators don't do oversight of the executive branch anymore; they don't make names for themselves through investigations or policy battles. They redirect spending through earmarks instead -- not just a few senior members of each body, but nearly all of them. People getting their news from the cable television shoutfests, plus a few tenured faculty, may well think this is just an issue about a stray few billion dollars. It isn't.

 

MUMPKIN

6:14 AM ET

March 19, 2009

Wolfboy. My understanding is

Wolfboy. My understanding is that the President was told last Thursday that $167 million was to be paid by AIG "later this month". If they had already been paid, the President's instructions this morning to find legal means to stop them would not make much sense. Additionally, Wall Street bonuses are often paid just before taxes are due.

 

BUZZ KILLINGTON

2:03 PM ET

March 19, 2009

Idea

The bonus debacle gave me an idea for a DC beltway billboard:

AIG spent $167 million for failure. You spent $170 billion for it. Which is worse?

 

HKEIRC

4:54 PM ET

March 20, 2009

Thanks Professor

After a week of the MSM et al your faux press statement remainds me that there are some reasonable people around.

 

Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

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