Tuesday, March 31, 2009 - 2:45 AM
My latest column for Newsweek International is now online, and points out the hazards of a failed G-20 summit. The closing:
As World Bank president Bob Zoellick recently observed, the promotion of the G20 to the global stage is an accident of history. The group had a harmless existence for close to a decade. When the crisis hit, it was the only forum around that brought together the key players in global finance.
The G20 gets a mulligan for last year's hastily arranged summit. A failure to act this time around will be far more damaging. In the absence of global cooperation, countries will go it alone, which means a ratcheting up of financial, trade and fiscal protectionism. And today's global economy already has too much in common with the 1930s.
Perusing the draft communique printed in the FT, I'd describe it as "a failure to act" already, but let's be charitable and see what happens in London.
Meanwhile, Heather Hurlburt and I discuss all things G-20 in our latest bloggingheads diavlog. We also share our fear of "impact" as a verb, and, oh, yes, I propose burning Heather at the stake. All in all, a lively chat.
EXPLORE:INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, FINANCIAL MELTDOWN, GLOBAL GOVERNANCE, INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL ECONOMY, PROTECTIONISM
I'm not holding my breath, considering that the predecessor to this type of meeting - the meeting the Brits held on the eve of the Great Depression - collapsed under the political weight of protectionism. Then add in how Bretton Woods arguably only succeeded because the US had gigantic economic and political muscle relative to the other partners, as well as the extensive (2 years) preparation time, and you have a recipe for pessimism.
But who knows? Certainly the Chinese and Brazilians have reason to push against extensive protectionism, if not some of their own.
Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
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