Open pirate thread

Posted By Daniel W. Drezner Tuesday, April 14, 2009 - 1:22 PM Share

I don't have too much to add to Charli Carpenter' comprehensive wrap-up post at the Duck of Minerva on the ~~emerging Global War on Pirates~~ Somali piracy situation.

Well, one thing. Most of the press reportage about possible policy responses stress the political difficulties of re-engaging in Somalia, what with the legacy of the "Black Hawk Down" incident from 1993.

If it was 1999, I would agree with this. After five years of two wars, however, am I to understand that the memory of Mogadishu is really going to be a deterrent to military action?

Note that this is not an endorsement of an enhanced military posture off the Horn of Africa -- I'm just not sure I buy the political optics here.

EXPLORE:INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, PIRACY

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ZWIT

2:54 PM ET

April 14, 2009

Pirates

So, was this a huge story in the press because it involved hostages, or because it involved pirates?

CHARLI

3:14 PM ET

April 14, 2009

The Mogadishu Factor

Dan, I don't think the Black Hawk Down incident is any longer going to be a deterrent in itself. If anything, I buy the argument that the rescue of Philips is going to be the new "US-in-Somalia" narrative that dominates and frames (or misframes) our policy in the region. But what will deter political enthusiasm at home for a stability and support operation in Somalia is the nation-building fatigue associated with Iraq. Which is a real shame, because if there was anywhere that a dedicated reconstruction campaign could make a significant different for human and regional security, it was always Somalia, not Iraq. Anyway, this is just my intuitive reading of the cards, not based on hard survey data or anything. And I'm not saying it means Obama shouldn't do it - just that he needs to think about how to raise the political capital given his commitment to Afghanistan as well.

BLUE13326

3:36 PM ET

April 14, 2009

It'll produce a

It will result in a fairly-successful reality series, but not much else.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/entertainment/sns-ap-tv-spike-pirate-hunters,0,4006286.story

ARTHUR

10:37 PM ET

April 14, 2009

Pirates!

Something big will go down on September 19.

But seriously, I think all of the above are right: it's hostages, had a good story line, it will be repeated with similar stories, and it's cognitively different than Mogadishu.

An ongoing engagement with Somali pirates also plays to the strengths of the US Navy, so it's pretty cheap.