A torturous question about social science [UPDATED]

Posted By Daniel W. Drezner Share

For those of you not in the know, the Monkey Cage is one of the best blogs around that tries to discuss seemingly abstruse social science research and technuqies and apply them to real world problems. 

In this post, Joshua Tucker asks a lulu of a question about social science research into torture: 

My original thought was that good social science research that shows that torture does not extract useful intelligence information would be the final nail in the coffin in any public argument in support of torture. But what happens if one of us gets access to the relevant data, does the empirical analysis, and then discovers the opposite: that torture does lead to useful intelligence information. What do you do then? Sit on the results? Would any political science journal publish such a paper? How would that look in a tenure review? (“Right, she’s the one who said torture was valuable…”).

Which leads to another question: should social scientists by engaging in research where we only want to share the results if they come out in one particular direction? I personally believe US national security is harmed by the use of torture in any form by our government, so I would welcome good empirical findings that provide added weight to arguments against the use of torture. But despite that goal, should I actually engage in research if I’m not willing to accept (or publish) findings to the contrary?

I, too, would welcome good empirical findings showing that torture does not work, but my answer to Josh's questions are "no."  You have to publish your findings regardless of what you discover.  That's the only way this business can work. 

From a practical perspective, it makes little sense.  Uncomfortable findings, if they hold up, will get discovered by someone.  Sitting on them merely magnifies their impact.  One of the few currencies social scientists can use is their research integrity.  A short-term compromise of this integrity simply magnifies the impact of the discovery. 

From an ethical perspective, social science results do not upend ethical arguments for or against a particular issue.  In other words, even if torture works in extracting information, there are strong normative reasons to oppose its use.  Covering up results, however, does compromise the ethical position of the person making the anti-torture argument.  [UPDATE:  Charli Carpenter makes this point more effectively and passionately than I.]

For a non-torture case that echoes this debate, do check out Michael Jonas' 2007 Boston Globe story of Robert Putnam's research into the effects of diversity on civic engagement.  

 
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SIGIVALD

8:47 PM ET

May 11, 2009

Short form: It's not science

Short form: It's not science anymore if you pretend you didn't learn something because you don't like what you learned.

 

ALLANGREEN

10:23 AM ET

May 12, 2009

We have Lost Face, Period.

I can see in the review sidebar paralleling your blog Dan, "Sharp but informal commentary..." from the New Republic. I agree- and that's why you informally bring up a sharp issue.

Correct me if I am wrong, but it was Hume who raised the is/should be paradox. Karl Popper reformulated it as normative vs positivist (correct me here), and it is what logicians call the naturalist fallacy.

So whether or not there is "empirical" proof for torture - is absolutely pointless, unless we want to embrace a fallacy.

Empirically there is room to go around it. I'd venture that total costs, must be weighed in research on torture. And I am sure that one can empirically prove, that the total costs of torture far outweigh its immediate intelligence gain.

Used as an intelligence gathering device, we have something approaching empirical proof from the French in Algeria, that torture works. But to argue this, you have to argue from "intelligence gathering techiques" which implies a context of double-checking the information gained using network analysis. For empirical research you begin by asking "how can torture be used as an intelligence gathering device". In otherwords, you need context.

Then, to weigh total costs of torture- you begin by saying "what is the benefit of restraint on torture?" Here, again, you will need context. The context is one of climate, of trust, of legitimacy. You cannot slam Iran (I repeat this in my posts, Gonzales argued for torture using examples of Iran!), the Nazis, the USSR, North Korea on torture, not to mention the Inquisition(!), if you're going to then justify the very same techniques! You've just undermined whatever good-will the world may have had for you. You've done so publicly ,and unequivocally. So to empiricallly study the benefit of restraint from torture - you need to quantify the value of trust, legitimacy, etc.

Your link to Putnam, Dan, is ideal. Putnam demonstrates that with all the blah-blah on multiculturalism, civic engagement requires trust. Diversity, empirically, destroys trust, and leads to a fall in civic engagement. Putnam then spent hours posting all kind of nonsense on his website, about how diversity is absolutely good for society - but in the long-run. Not one of those works were anywhere near as empirical as his own research. Putnam is both a good example of empiricism, and cowardice. Multiculturalism, like torture, doesn't work in the larger context. (ok, that's a kind of joke on my part)

***
America has suffered enormous harm in this torture episode. Contextually, the worst damage did not come from the torture itself - but from the idiots on the right who stood up for it, and for the lackeys on the left, who don't have the balls to call for a formal commission. That's where the damage is coming from. Believe me, when you act with impunity, and expose yourself as a hypocrite, you have thrown off the mask. Those who support torture, are exposed as a kind of neo-nazi mentality of goons. The evangelicals, it turns out, really are not far from Germans of the 30s. They are too stupid, to decide on their own, if torture even took place. They read pundits, and preachers, who decide for them.

Our worst fears, have been proven true.

 

BLUE13326

2:02 PM ET

May 12, 2009

Interesting, but it raises

Interesting, but it raises the question of how to empirically quantify the costs of torture. And then to measure that with the benefits of the information gained from torture. And then to take into account the possibility of gaining the same information through means other than torture. Also, the risk of exposure has to be taken into account when studying torture, because it's the exposure that tends to bring about much of the cost. Just about every great power in history has engaged in what we would identify as torture, but many have been able to effectively keep it secret for a time. A good example is the British during World War II, who were able to effectively keep their Nazi torture camps secret for quite some time, and therefore did not suffer much of the costs of their use of torture.

It seems a very difficult area to measure, with a lot of gray area, which is why a social scientist looking to study it should not engage in it unless they are willing to publish whatever conclusion they reach, lest their own bias shade their research.

 

DREAMKING11

4:16 PM ET

May 12, 2009

Science has to be independent of politics

For science to be valuable and constructive it must be unbiased in moral and ethical considerations. Scientists are not equipped to make political policy regardless of its morality. The previous administration abandoned funding for scientific endeavors such as global warming research for this very reason that they did not want to know the results, which the scientific community agrees was a mistake.

 

RALPH HITCHENS

6:45 PM ET

May 12, 2009

Torture

If you move the discussion off the moral issue to the practical, you've already debased yourself. Cheney has alluded to "at least two" CIA memos that would confirm his belief that extreme interrogation methods produced actionable results that saved American lives. I'd sure like to see these memos but am dead certain that we never will, because they probably don't say anything like what he thinks they say.

 

J THOMAS

1:16 PM ET

May 15, 2009

If you move the discussion

If you move the discussion off the moral issue to the practical, you've already debased yourself.

Our society has already been debased that way, without any real evidence.

Wouldn't it make sense to do some science and find out the truth?

My natural thought is to bring in social scientists to study military crimes. When soldiers do serious crime -- stealing military supplies and selling them to civilians, etc -- something they would get serious punishment for if they are caught, then we could find out how well torture works to solve those cases.

Ideally, first the MPs etc would solve the case based on physical evidence. But even failing that, they could pick the most plausible suspects and also other soldiers picked more-or-less at random, similar enough that interrogators wouldn't know which were which. And then do the interrogations double-blind. Nobody connected to the interrogations knows which are the criminals and which are the control groups.

You need the people being interrogated to have a strong personal stake in not revealing the truth. They should know that if they confess they will get a lengthy stockade time followed by a dishonorable discharge. And you need the interrogators not to know the truth either. So in on case they are given information about the actual crimes, and in the other case they are given equivalent information about crimes that have not actually happened that the victim could have done.

In all cases, test the confessions against whatever other data that can be found and determine how much of it is accurate.

There is the problem that sometimes the people that the physical evidence tends to incriminate might be innocent, while sometimes random soldiers might actually have done the crimes they're randomly accused of. Careful investigation is needed to minimise that.

It should be possible to do reasonably well-controlled experiments that would show how often torture results in false confession by innocents and how often it results in false confession by the guilty (false confessions being fake stories that temporarily satisfy the interrogators without actually revealing useful evidence), versus how often the innocent fail to find adequate stories and how often the guilty hold out.

The consequences of knowing the answer, would be only good. If it turns out to be effective that won't make any difference to torture supporters who all already firmly believe it's effective out of their defective common sense. But if it proves ineffective that will affect rational people who're tempted to use it.

The immediate bad results would be to the individuals who get tortured, particularly the soldiers who get randomly chosen to be tortured. (That's why it needs to be done in a military setting, because civilians have civil fights.)

And there's the further problem that the results cannot be definitive. If the best tortures we now know are ineffective, still we might find better ones later. The natural result would be to keep repeating the studies with new methods.

Still, we'd be better off knowing than not knowing.

 

ROGERSWEENY

8:47 PM ET

May 12, 2009

dreamking11, The previous

dreamking11,

"The previous administration abandoned funding for scientific endeavors such as global warming research..."

Funding for global warming research actually went up during the Bush administration.

Now, almost nobody was pleased by their response to the research, which was basically, "well, yes there's a problem and it could get big and we're going to do something big--eventually."

But that's a whole different thing.

 

TGGP

4:18 AM ET

May 15, 2009

The Putnam study

Many profess disgust for torture, but we still engage in many activities just as bad which we hardly question.

With regard to the Putnam study I wrote "Be grateful diversity reduces trust".

 

Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

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