Friday, June 12, 2009 - 7:03 PM
I don't have too many complaints with Barack Obama's foreign policy to date. But I'm beginning to wonder about his effect on America's foreign policy bloggers.
Today, I see that Josh Marshall recommends Juan Cole's blog as the place to check for updates on Iranian elections. I don't always agree with Cole, but Iran is right in his wheelhouse, so off I click.
His top post, entitled, "Iran Awaits Ballot Results; Obama Effect Expected," contains this paragraph:
Howard LaFranchi at CSM asks what the 'Obama Effect' will be on the Iranian revolution. Although it was not decisive, scientific polling in Lebanon suggests that Obama did have an effect in the defeat of the Hezbollah coalition, "March 8", in Lebanon, even if it was a slight one.
Hmmm.... there was scientific polling done on this? Really? Rats. Earlier this week I expressed my skepticism about the Obama effect in Lebanon's election. Ready to concede that I might have been wrong, I clicked through Cole's link to find the following:
Neither [Lebanon nor Iran] has any accurate, independent or publicly available political polling, and no poll has attempted to substantively gauge the effect of Obama's presidency or his recent Cairo outreach speech to Muslims on either country.
One recent poll done on behalf of two U.S.-based public-interest groups found that few Iranians — only 29 percent — said they have favorable opinions of the United States, and that the view had changed little since Obama's election.
Both of Cole's links have quotes from experts claiming that there might have been a mild Obama effect. There ain't no scientific polling, however.
Let's everyone slowly walk away from the Obama hyperbole, shall we?
UPDATE: Cole has corrected his post.
Cole has amended his post: "[Sorry for the typo in the earlier draft, meant to say 'unscientific polling.']"
Interesting links; although the notion of an Obama effect is laughable, Cole has an interesting post on his evidence for why the Iranian election was stolen. I don't know enough about the country to make an informed judgment.
yeh! the only Obama effect I see in Iran is that Ahamdinejad won!
Obama has not once outered the words "human right", never mentioned the political prisoners in Iran. Iran has the highest number of women political prisoners in Iran and he hardly mentioned that.
Its seems to me he would be happy to see Ahamdenejad in the power...he does not care about the human rights anywhere!!!
Mr. Drezner is right to be skeptical about Mr. Cole
I think it was unwise of Mr. Cole --in the typical fashion of a theoretical scholar detached from everyday policy-making -- to announce to his considerable Pakistani audience (go to Alexi.com and check how much internet-trafic from Pakistan gets to Juan Coles site] that they needn't worry: The Pakistani army had tanks and aircraft a plenty, so that Taliban would be no threat to the authorities in Pakistan. Hardly had he written these words before the Generals in Pakistan began sending the very same hardware in the face of the Taliban in Swat. Coincidence? Or did the Generals get an idea from Cole?
I know that The president is doing the best he could to resolve every crisis involving US. However, for some his efforts are not enough to prove all his promises during the campaign and I respect that. I know and understand that a lot of people clamor for a balanced economy, and that isn't a bad idea. A balanced economy would dictate that what is spent is only what is earned, and borrowing is only done to pay emergency bills. It was an overleveraging of credit that got us into this mess, and a lot of Americans are looking into payday loans instead of credit cards, the traditional avenue. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke continues to assure us that the economy will stop contracting by the end of this year and begin recovery, but one wonders if the cash advance we gave to all the biggest firms will result in a better, balanced economy.
Yes it is true that Mr.Barack Obama the president of US, is trying to do the every possible thing which would bring progress to the country. Obama is trying to help this world, I believe. As the above commentor said, That is true that he is doing what actually needs to be done.
Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
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