Same event, wildly different numbers on the turnout. 

Al Jazeera

Tens of thousands of Iranians have rallied in the country's capital in defiance of a government ban to protest against the re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president.

New York Times (hat tip to Kevin Drum): 

Hundreds of thousands of people marched in silence through central Tehran on Monday to protest Iran's disputed presidential election in an extraordinary show of defiance that appeared to be the largest demonstration in Iran since the 1979 revolution.

Andrew Sullivan's Twitter sources

There are reports of about 3m ppl out on the streets.  Millions of people marching in absolute silence. 

Size matters here.  Tens of thousands is a serious but likely containable situation for Iran's security forces.  With millions, you're talking about the potential for a repeat of something awful that happened about twenty years ago

So, which data point do you trust?

AFP/Getty Images

 
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ZATHRAS

6:01 PM ET

June 15, 2009

All those people weren't out

All those people weren't out to see the public art, that's for sure. That is one ugly monument.

 

KENNETH SORENSEN

6:58 PM ET

June 15, 2009

Take it easy. It seems Mr. Drezner has an interest in overplay

It seems that Mr. Drezner just like Mr. Keating has an odd interest in overplaying events. In reality you don't know how many there was on the street and neither do any of us. so kust take it easy and let the Iranians themselves handle the situation. There is nothing you or any of us can do.

What we can is sanctioning Israel, because if this country was not so fatally misplaced in the middle of Arabia, no one would take any particular interest in what happens in either Iraq or Iran, and there would have been no Iraq War -- which wouldn't have happened without the prodding of Israel and especially The Israel Lobby. And the end-goal was Iran, let us never forget that. Now the big question is: Would mister Drezner have cheered if US troops had continued over the border to Iran? Remember these were the stakes, this was the intent. While we are all thankful to the Iraqie insurgency who prevented this, let us never forget who the instigators of War were. And let us join in a solemn promise that we will devote all our waken hours in figuring out how we can close the worlds remaining colony, Israel -- who have brought so much misery to the Middle East, and who has initiated sanctions against the proud country of Iran.

Take a look at how this individual in the Treasury Department, Stuart Levey at the very heart of the American Capital and just a stone-throw from The White House, are leading the foul sanction policy against the sovereign and proud country of Iran with more than 70 million citizens.

BBC NEWS, 8 September 2006:
US blacklists major Iranian bank

The Bush administration has blacklisted one of Iran's biggest banks, alleging that it is used to transfer money to terrorist organisations.
The Treasury Department said it had cut state-owned Bank Saderat off from the US financial system entirely.

The bank, although unable to deal directly in the US, was previously able to make transactions via a bank in another country.

The US is calling for UN sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme.

There has been no official reaction to the news from either Bank Saderat or Iran.

'Funds moved'

Stuart Levey, the Treasury's under-secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, announced the action against Saderat during a speech to the American Enterprise Institute.

He said the bank had been blacklisted because "this bank, which has approximately 3,400 branch offices, is used by the government of Iran to transfer money to terrorist organisations."

"We will no longer allow a bank like Saderat to do business in the American financial system, even indirectly," he added.

According to Mr. Levey, the bank had facilitated the transfer of hundreds of millions of dollars to the Lebanese militant group, Hezbollah, and what he called other terrorist organisations, every year.

Correspondents say the bank has played a major role connecting Iranian businesses with the outside world over the last few years.

And what about this:

BBC NEWS, 13 June 2007:
America's financial war on Iran

The United States is waging an undeclared financial war on Iran as part of efforts to persuade the Tehran government to abandon alleged plans to acquire nuclear weapons.

It is being run from an ornate, grey building located close to the White House in Washington - the headquarters of America's finance ministry, the Treasury Department.

"What we're trying to do is make it difficult for Iran to use the global financial system to pursue illicit conduct," explains Stuart Levey.

 

CONMULLIGAN

9:13 PM ET

June 15, 2009

100,000

I've seen 100,000 cited more than any other figure so I guess it's probably closer to that.

 

DTHURSTON

11:40 PM ET

June 15, 2009

Not 10,000

10,000 is not plausible, as a look at some of the photos (including the one above) reveals. 10,000 is a lot of people, but that oval around Azadi tower seems to be about 500m x 400m, which should hold at least 200,000 people. We can't tell from the photo whether it was entirely full, but 10,000 seems way off.

1 million also seems optimistic, though. One report I saw said the march was 9km long, which (if I'm computing right) would be extremely crowded for 1 million people.

The population of Tehran is 7m urban and 13m metro, by comparison.

 

BUZZ KILLINGTON

10:49 AM ET

June 16, 2009

I want to know...

Do the Iranian people really expect fair elections? Do Americans really have a better understanding of how their government works than they do? That's sadly amazing.

 

SIMPLESIMON

1:33 PM ET

June 16, 2009

Does anyone have a hard number on today's protest in Tehran?

There was little ambiguity in Obama’s endorsement of “new possibilities” regarding Iranian elections before they were held. Extension of poll hours by six hours and spectacularly high voter turnout in Tehran and elsewhere were applauded by US and British TV reporters as ‘harbinger of a turning point in the history of a great country’. It is only when the results did NOT turn out to be what Western news media wanted them to be, that veracity of elections is being challenged.
There is an inclination for Western diplomats and its media to attach disproportionate importance to the views of those they are either in agreement with, or those with whom they enjoy a convivial social relationship. Broadly speaking, foreign journalists and diplomats interact meaningfully with those who are not socially conservative. It was interesting to note that few journalists covering the Iranian election actually made the effort to find out what made Ahmadinejad tick with the poor and the working classes. Witness how Western news media clings to the news of ‘few Pakistanis outside government getting together to fight Taliban’ as if it is a general trend when nothing can be further from the truth.

Even in Iraq, US refuses to accept that loyalty of Sunni rebels was bought by putting them on US payroll. That loyalty ended the day US stopped paying the bribe. Same will be true in Pakistan.

 

Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

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