Some light reading while I'm away

Mon, 06/29/2009 - 8:46am

While I'm on vacation at an undisclosed location, feel free to peruse my latest non-blog publication, Alphabet Soup: The Political Economy of the Great Recession (.pdf), commissioned by the Glasshouse Forum.  As they put it: 

The current global economic crisis, which began as a subprime crisis and developed into a general credit crisis, is the deepest since the Depression of the 1930’s. There are many signs that we are now facing the beginning of a structural sea change. But what will it be like?

To get a better understanding of the medium-term effects of the crisis, Glasshouse Forum asked Daniel W. Drezner, Professor of International Politics at The Fletcher School, Tufts University, and author of the Glasshouse Forum report White Whale or Red Herring? Assessing Sovereign Wealth Funds, to draft scenarios and make qualified estimates based on as much objective data and historical parallels as possible.

I'd like to stress the word "qualified." 

Read it and weep. 

 

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Endogenous

by kwo on Tue, 06/30/2009 - 4:17pm

"There is an endogenous relationship between the variables of concern in this report and the possible states of the global economy over the next two to five years."

Pardon my ignorance, but "endogenous relationship"?

It means that the state of

by Daniel W. Drezner on Wed, 07/01/2009 - 5:56pm
It means that the state of the economy and, say, the level of protectionism affect each other in a reciprocal manner. Slower economic growth increases protectionist pressures, but higher degrees of protecionism also lead to lower global economic growth. You can't say definitively which causes which.

W,U or L shaped crisis

by elcorreosudamer... on Fri, 07/03/2009 - 5:10pm

I think that financial crisis is in a sense more deeper than 1930 because is a more complex world and many variables are hard to control.First population near 7 thousand million of people most in under developed countries and pressing for vindicates his rights to acceed
to modern world.The relevant of politics in the crisis envolving more and more public area.The question if politician are or bad prepared to make face to social efects of crisis and with intelectual and etic capacities no elaborate clever politics.I am afraid than with the times
are not a one solution to solve the crisis.And maket reflected in financial clue center as Wall Street are not more in capacity to affords solutions.A comon sense way besides of Environments issues are social problems viewed as a investiment in under developedd countries.China has made internal a march i this sense.
But is not easy answer to implement both iniciatives I am afraid that for many time we see W,U or L curves as the
waves of a sismograph