Did I miss anything?

Sat, 07/04/2009 - 9:20am

So I'm back from my week off.  Did I miss anything?  Let's see: 

  1. Coup in central American country;
  2. North Korea acts provocatively
  3. Iran's regime ramps up its paranoia
  4. Republican governors gone wild
  5. The Washington Post commits an odd blunder. 

In other words, a typical week in 2009. 

Actually, that's not fair to Central America -- thankfully, coups there are much rarer than they used to be. 

Daniel W. Drezner | Permalink | | Comments? Login or register
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Yes, you missed the most

by blue13326 on Sat, 07/04/2009 - 9:38pm

Yes, you missed the most important news of the week:

'The shocker last week was not just that the US lost 467,000 jobs in May, but also that time worked fell 6.9pc from a year earlier, dropping to 33 hours a week. "At no time in the 1990 or 2001 recessions did we ever come close to seeing such a detonating jobs figure," said David Rosenberg from Glukin Sheff. "We have lost a record nine million full-time jobs this cycle."

The Centre for Labour Market Studies (CLMS) in Boston says US unemployment is now 18.2pc, counting the old-fashioned way.'

If this doesn't turn around fast, '10 and '12 are looking like doom for Obama and the Dems. We may even see serious social unrest before all is said and done.

I agree with the second

by Zathras on Sun, 07/05/2009 - 4:10pm

I agree with the second statement of the conclusion but not the first. The Republicans poisoned their own well but good during the last eight years, and you can't beat something with nothing.

The serious social unrest may take some time to develop in this country. We'll see a lot of it in other countries first -- including those with economies that have depended heavily on the American consumer who isn't consuming the way he used to.

The thing about the

by blue13326 on Mon, 07/06/2009 - 4:49am

The thing about the employment report that makes it so significant is that while there is some disagreement whether jobless claims are a leading or lagging indicator, it is fairly universally understood that length of the work week is a leading indicator. And this leading indicator is now hitting an all-time low (this is why both stocks and commodities sold off so hard on the news). In other words, the employment report indicated that the worst is yet to come. (I'm surprised Prof. Drezner missed this; he used to blog about the economy somewhat critically when Bush was president.)

One of the interesting things is what this will mean for the Treasury market. Economic weakness usually means a flight to safety, but excess borrowing (the likelihood now of a second, even bigger, stimulus) could cause rates to skyrocket, and blunt any impact of stimulus spending. (Or put another way, we may very well be royally f*cked.)

As to what this means politically, if Obama goes into '12 with a 10%+ unemployment rate, Trig Palin could probably beat him.