Thursday, August 13, 2009 - 1:42 PM
My latest TNI online essay is now available for viewing on the interwebs. It looks at recent U.S. foreign policy actions through the ever-useful lens of the good cop/bad cop routine. Can a gambit that always worked on NYPD Blue work on the global stage? I have my doubts:
On the whole, the good cop-bad cop routine is of limited utility in world politics. Iran appears to be unbowed in the face of a hawkish Israeli government (though, to be fair, they have been preoccupied with other matters recently). A protectionist Congress has not made it any easier to complete the Doha round. Bill Clinton’s good cop was able to secure the release of the hostages, but at the price of a photo op that looked bad no matter how necessary it might have been. And while no one doubts that Biden occasionally goes rogue, it remains unclear just what policy benefits that strategy yields.
In theory, the best kind of bad cop is the one that seems genuinely unconstrained and ready to strike. An independent but allied government plays this part much better than a subordinate member of the executive branch. In other words, if you want to successfully execute the good cop-bad cop routine in world politics, the odds are long to begin with. To pull it off, however, under no circumstances should you let Joe Biden be Joe Biden.
[Would a threat to display more of Dennis Franz's posterior work as a compellent threat?--ed. Hmmm... let me check the Biological Weapons Convention to see if it's a legit move and I'll get back to you.]
EXPLORE:U.S. FOREIGN POLICY, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS THEORY, JOE BIDEN, POP CULTURE
I think you underestimate the effectiveness of good cop-bad cop routines. It works often, and well, in regard to President vs. Congress (especially with otherwise reluctant allies). And it worked quite well for Nixon and Kissinger, who even had a name for it: the Madman Strategy. It turned out to be bad for Nixon (who got stuck with the label) and quite good for Kissinger, who to this day is the incarnation of reason and rationality.
Putin and Medvedev seem to work it well, at least in their dealings with us and Europe.
Further Back--Ike and John Foster Dulles?
I'm not sure whether it's been discussed in good cop/bad cop terms, but my vague memory is that Ike and Dulles had something of the kind going--Ike being good, and Dulles threatening massive retaliation, etc.
I read the whole thing, and came away with the feeling that Dan Drezner watches way too much television.
I rely on pop culture more for entertainment than instruction, so I don't have an alternative analogy drawn from doctor or lawyer shows to offer. I could probably work up a sports analogy if I spent some time on it, but I'm not going to. I would observe that if the Obama administration had any reservations about the "reset button" initiative -- say, a feeling that the message being communicated might have been that our problems with Russia were all our fault, and we are really sorry and promise to do better -- an interview like Vice President Biden's might have represented an effort to modify it.
Whether it did represent such an effort I don't know. For all I know it may just have represented a divided administration, and prompted other American officials to offer profuse apologies for the rogue Vice President making factual statements about Russia without even asking for clearance from anyone in Putin's office. Bad cop, good groveler, or something.
To continue down the "too much TV" line
So from 1914 - 1917 and 1939 - 1941, were the Allies and the US the "Ross and Rachel" of international relations?
Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
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