Posted By Daniel W. Drezner Share

Over at Politico, Eamon Javers notes an odd trend in the Drudge Report

On Tuesday, Matt Drudge ran a headline about the weakening U.S. dollar on his website, Drudgereport.com. In and of itself, that would be unremarkable, except that it was the 18th time Drudge had posted a link to a story about the weak dollar this month.

And October was only 20 days old.

Clearly, Matt Drudge has developed a fascination with the declining U.S. dollar.

“He’s fixated on it,” said Tom Rosenstiel, director of the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism. “There’s no question that Drudge can alter what people are paying attention to.”

Market watchers say it’s unlikely that Drudge is actually moving the currency markets with his relentless attention.

I don’t think that anyone who seriously trades currencies reads The Drudge Report before making important buy or sell decisions,” said Chris Roush, a professor of business journalism at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. (emphasis added... because that's a priceless quote)

Drudge isn't the only one obsessed about the dollar.  Last week, James Pethokoukis blogged the following for Reuters: 

The aftershocks of the global financial crisis may now be propelling the dollar back to the political forefront. The greenback’s continuing slide makes it a handy metric that neatly encapsulates America’s current economic troubles and possible long-term decline. House Republicans for instance, have been using the weaker dollar as a weapon in their attacks on the Bernanke-led Federal Reserve.

For more evidence of the dollar’s return to political salience, look no further than the Facebook page of Sarah Palin. The 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee — and possible 2012 presidential candidate — has shown a knack for identifying hot-button political issues, such as the purported “death panels” she claims to have found in Democratic healthcare reform plans. In a recent Facebook posting, Palin expressed deep concern over the dollar’s “continued viability as an international reserve currency” in light of huge U.S. budget deficits.

She might be onto something here, politically and economically. A recent Rasmussen poll, for instance, found that 88 percent of Americans say the dollar should remain the dominant global currency. Now, the average voter may not fully understand the subtleties of international finance nor appreciate exactly how a dominant dollar has benefited the U.S economy. But they sure think a weaker dollar is a sign of a weaker America.

OK, let's be as plain as possible about this - as a reserve currency, the dollar is not going anywhereReally

The dollar's slide in value has been predictable, as the need for a financial safe haven has abated.  By and large, a depreciating dollar helps the U.S. trade balance (though it would help much more if the Chinese renminbi got in on the appreciation).   

Even the Chinese, who have spoken like they want an alternative to the dollar as a reserve currency, are in point of fact not doing much to alter the status quo.  Why?  To paraphrase Winston Churchill, the dollar is a lousy, rotten reserve currency - until one contemplates the alternatives. 

Because all of the alternatives have serious problems.  The euro, the only truly viable substitute for the dollar, is not located in the region responsible for the largest surge of growth.  It would be unlikely for the ASEAN +3 countries to agree to switch from the dollar to a new currency over which regional actors have no influence (the Europeans wouldn't be thrilled either, as it would lead to an even greater appreciation of the currency).  Oh, and the European Union has no consolidated sovereign debt market.  The euro is worth watching, but it's not going to replace the dollar anytime soon.  

The other alternatives are even less attractive.  Most other national currencies beyond the euro - the yen, pound, Swiss franc, Australian dollar - are based in markets too small to sustain the inflows that would come from reserve currency status.  The renminbi remains inconvertible.  A return to the gold standard in this day and age would be infeasible - the liquidity constraints and vagaries of supply would be too powerful.  There's the using-the-Special-Drawing-Right-as-a-template-for-a-super-sovereign currency idea, but this is an implausible solution.  As it currently stands, the SDR is not a currency so much as a unit of account.  Even after the recent IMF authorizations, there are less than $400 billion SDR-denominated assets in the world, which is far too small for a proper reserve currency. 

So, what's really going on here with the dollar obsession?  I suspect that with the Dow Jones going back over 10,000, Republicans are looking for some other Very Simple Metric that shows Obama Stinks.  The dollar looks like it's going to be declining for a while, so why not that?  Never mind that the dollar was even weaker during the George W. Bush era -- they want people to focus on the here and now. 

The thing is, I'm not sure this gambit is going to work.  People who already think Obama is a socialist will go for it, sure, but that's only rallying the base.  I'm not sure how much fence-sitters care about a strong dollar, however.  If anything, populist movements tend to favor a debasing of the currency rather than a strengthening of it. 

Still, I'm just a political scientist -- I'm sure that, "theories on political behavior are best left to CNN, pollsters, pundits, historians, candidates, political parties, and the voters." 

So, have at it, readers!  Will the falling dollar be a source of populist outrage if Drudge links to it enough? 

UPDATE:  contrasting takes from Kevin Drum and Megan McArdle

 

DRLAKE777

3:13 PM ET

October 21, 2009

Buy American?

I wonder whether Matt Drudge understands that keeping the dollar strong undermines American industry? Or whether he cares?

 

DONCOFFIN

4:30 PM ET

October 21, 2009

If it DOES become an item of

If it DOES become an item of populist outrage, for how many people do you think the outrage will focus on the fact that the (longer-run) decline began in early 2002, and how many do you think will focus solely on the decline since the beginning of 2009? Yeah, that's what I thought, too.

 

BRETT

5:23 PM ET

October 21, 2009

Even the Chinese, who have

Even the Chinese, who have spoken like they want an alternative to the dollar as a reserve currency, are in point of fact not doing much to alter the status quo. Why? To paraphrase Winston Churchill, the dollar is a lousy, rotten reserve currency - until one contemplates the alternatives.

We've got the Chinese nice and trapped on that one. The instant they make a major sell-off of their dollar reserves, the dollar will depreciate heavily in value, causing the rest of their reserves to plummet in value and crushing Chinese exports.

 

ART HACKETT

7:02 PM ET

October 21, 2009

Worthwhile Canadian Initiative

For what it's worth, the Bank of Canada (and we all know they're out to destroy America) is trying to lower the value of the Loonie since if it gets too high it hurts exports.

 

ART HACKETT

7:03 PM ET

October 21, 2009

Worthwhile Canadian Initiative

For what it's worth, the Bank of Canada (and we all know they're out to destroy America) is trying to lower the value of the Loonie since if it gets too high it hurts exports.

 

BLUE13326

7:08 PM ET

October 21, 2009

Umm...the unemployment rate

Umm...the unemployment rate has risen by nearly 40% under Obama. We've lost 4 million jobs in less than a year. Take a peak outside poli sci academia, and you'll see there's really no need to manufacture fake outrage.

 

DANIEL W. DREZNER

7:16 PM ET

October 21, 2009

Then rage about the unemployment figure.....

... why harp on the dollar?

 

GRANT

9:05 PM ET

October 21, 2009

So nice to see that you've

So nice to see that you've studied the general nature of economics and recessions. At least I hope you have.

 

DRLAKE777

9:46 PM ET

October 21, 2009

Yeah, let's rage against him

Yeah, let's rage against him for the economic crisis he created! Oh, yeah...

 

KWO

7:14 PM ET

October 21, 2009

Dollar demagogery

It didn't work for the Democrats under Bush, don't know why it should work for the Republicans under Obama.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_11/b3924034_mz007.htm

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/05/weak_dollar.html

 

CK MACLEOD

8:45 PM ET

October 21, 2009

Oil

Watch the price of oil - recently breaking out of its trading range, partly on the basis of the dollar's weakness. CPI inflation doesn't matter much if we get high spot inflation. The Fed will either have to tighten, squelching incipient economic growth, or watch real interest rates and inflation rise, achieving the same effect. Certain alternatives involving a fast rebounding dollar could have even worse effects, particularly if and when the equity bubble pops.

Few seem to have grasped that current global banking policy, including Bernanke-Geithner-Obama policy, is for a decade of stagflation if everything goes right.

 

GRANT

9:03 PM ET

October 21, 2009

I know full well that no one

I know full well that no one in this world can really predict what an election will be about until at earliest a month before the actual election, but I can't see the dollar deciding it. At the moment people aren't interested in how much the dollar is worth as much as how much they want to have dollars. If the economy recovers enough in 2010 before the election and the Taliban doesn't stage a repeat of the Tet offensive we can expect a Democratic victory.

 

CSAWDON

9:20 PM ET

October 21, 2009

Once again this author really

Once again this author really does not get it. As an Obama follower he thinks that whenever someone points out that the economy is in bad shape it is a insult to Obama. This is NOT a partisan issue!!! The dollar fell substantially under the Bush administration and continues to fall under Obama. It was a bad thing when Bush was in office and is equally as bad now! While both presidents are partially responsible for the plight of the dollar the biggest culprit is the federal reserve. Greenspan and Bernanke both were/are printing too many dollars. A falling dollar and inflation is not in our best interest. While our exporters will benefit the rest of the country will see a decline in their standard of living. Just look historically at the countries with high inflation vs low inflation. Almost always the countries with low inflation have higher growth and lower unemployment than the high inflation countries.

 

DANIEL W. DREZNER

9:43 PM ET

October 21, 2009

High inflation?

There is high inflation in the United States because of a loose monetary policy? That would be problematic, I agree.

What measure are you using to claim that we're in a high inflation era?

 

DRLAKE777

9:52 PM ET

October 21, 2009

A weak dollar is not an

A weak dollar is not an inherently bad thing. While it does increase the cost of imports, it also makes both exports AND domestic production for the domestic market more competitive, by lowering their price relative to the world price of those goods.

I can point to plenty of economies with a strong currency that have been hurt by it, because of the impact it has on domestic manufacturing. The US is one of them, as a matter of fact. While our currency was not inflated by "Dutch Disease" in a literal sense, it has been inflated for decades because it is the world's reserve currency. That has been good for US consumers, but not so good for US industry.

 

STEEPLE

9:49 PM ET

October 21, 2009

It has to do with why

I think that understanding the reasons why the dollar is in decline and perhaps structural decline are more important to this debate. The economic world seems to be witnessing a US government which is showing no thread of financial discipline, by agreeing to fund spectacularly large new commitments at a time when many of our previous commitments remain unfunded.

This has been going on for some time and it continued under GW Bush. But the pace of creating new unfunded obligations appears to be unprecedented here.

 

A.S.

10:00 PM ET

October 21, 2009

Really?

Let me get this straight. *Daniel Drezner* - of all people - is complaining about someone getting hysterical about the fall of the dollar?

Perhaps Drezner should look in the mirror! Or does he perhaps forget about this post: http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/001723.html

There are others like it, too.

So, let me see if I can summarize what's going on here. During the Bush Administration when the dollar began falling, Drezner got hysterical about it. Some commenters tried to talk him out of his hysteria - not very successfully, I might add.

But now, during the Obama Administration, some other people are likewise getting a little hysterical about a fall in the dollar, and Drezner has the chutzpah to call them out on it? Really???

Perhaps Drezner should instead just abjectly apologize for his own (unwarranted) previous hysteria at the fall of the dollar.

 

DRLAKE777

10:06 PM ET

October 21, 2009

You might want to re-read

You might want to re-read that post, before you claim hysteria on his part. While DD suggests a rapid fall might be a problem, he makes the point of suggesting a 20-30% decline would not necessarily be a bad thing. That's hysteria?

 

A.S.

10:51 PM ET

October 21, 2009

Drezner has been blogging

Drezner has been blogging about the potential collapse of the dollar for ages. As I mentioned, that's not the only post of his, there are plenty of others:

Here's Dan specifically worrying about something that might be the "beginning of the end" of Bretton Woods II: http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/001790.html

(With approving link to Brad Setser "blogging about the possibility of a drastic decline in the dollar's value/the possibility of the dollar losing its reserve currency status"!)

Here's more Drezner on the possibility of the end of Bretton Woods II and a collapse of the dollar: http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/001912.html

(Drezner says that he is "less sanguine" about the dollar than his economic advisors.)

Here's more about the World Bank "firing a shot across the dollar's bow": http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/001984.html

Drezner links to some report discussing the possibility of "a dollar collapse below what the bank's economists see as its long-term equilibrium level".)

As you can see, Drezner has a long history of highlighting hysterical stories about the dollar. Not unlike what Drudge is doing. As I said, he ought to look in the mirror before accusing other people of unduly highlighting hysterical stories about the dollar.

 

A.S.

10:58 PM ET

October 21, 2009

I should add, again, that the

I should add, again, that the difference here seems to be the party of the President. Drezner was perfectly happy to link to all sorts of wild admonitions from people like Brad Setser warning of a collapse of the dollar and loss of reserve currency - when the President was a Republican. I didn't see any post from Drezner reponding to Brad Setser that "as a reserve currency, the dollar is not going anywhere. Really." When Bush was President, we had all kinds of things to worry about in terms of the dollar.

But when Obama is President, well, everything is just fine and dandy.

Amazing how Drezner's perspective has changed since November 2008.

 

DRLAKE777

1:57 AM ET

October 22, 2009

I don't see the hysteria you

I don't see the hysteria you do here, though he does take the notion of countries bailing on the dollar more seriously. Why assume that has anything to do with the party in power, though? Those posts were generally from several years ago, so the change in perspective could well stem from any number of things including thinking the issue through more than he had back then. I know my analyses shift over time, on issues I deal with periodically.

Anyway, I'm more inclined to be charitable about this, but you are correct in that there is some inconsistency here. Dan?

 

A.S.

2:34 PM ET

October 22, 2009

Drudge's warnings about

Drudge's warnings about currency are no more hysterical than Drezner's were 4-5 years ago. My point is only that Drezner appears to be complaing about Drudge doing the very same thing that Drezner himself was doing during the Bush Administration.

As to the politics of the matter, Drezner assumes that Drudge is doing this because "Republicans are looking for some other Very Simple Metric that shows Obama Stinks. The dollar looks like it's going to be declining for a while, so why not that?"

Why would the same not be true of Drezner in 2004? Drezner's accusation about Drudge seems to me to be projection - Drezner himself was looking in 2004/5 for a Very Simple Metric that shows Bush Stinks.

And Drezner's Very Simple Metric about Bush is the exact same Very Simple Metric that today's Obama critics are using.

 

DANIEL W. DREZNER

3:47 PM ET

October 22, 2009

This dog won't hunt

To respond:

1) I wasn't posting about the dollar obsessively back in 2004/5 -- I occasionally talked about it. I certainly didn't blog about it nearly every day for a month.

2) When I did blog about it, my concern was not about the end of the dollar's status as a reserve currency, but rather a dramatic drop (as opposed to a slow depreciation) in the dollar that would trigger a financial crisis. If you read the blog posts, I think you'll acknowledge that I wasn't convinced that this would happen.

3) I think it's fair to say that my thinking on this HAS changed. This is not because of the transition from Bush to Obama -- indeed, I'm not sure I ever linked the concern over Bretton Woods II in my 2004/5 posts to Bush administration policies. It's because the financial crisis already took place -- I'm less convinced that there will be a double-dip crisis in financial markets. That, plus I started researching the issue beyond the occasional blog post.

 

A.S.

4:45 PM ET

October 22, 2009

Thanks for the response. "I

Thanks for the response.

"I wasn't posting about the dollar obsessively back in 2004/5 -- I occasionally talked about it."

I don't find it convincing, to say the least. You weren't posting about the issue "obsessively" because, well, you don't post obsessively. Drudge posts links to dozens of stories a day. I'd wager that the number of stories Drudge links about currency *as a percentage of total number of links posted* is less than the number of your posts about currency *as a percentage of total number of posts* during the relevant time.

"my concern was not about the end of the dollar's status as a reserve currency, but rather a dramatic drop (as opposed to a slow depreciation) in the dollar that would trigger a financial crisis."

This hardly seems to be a relevant distinction, if the question is whether someone was being overly hysterical about currency. Hysteria about a slightly different problem with a dramatic drop in our currency is still hysteria.

"I think it's fair to say that my thinking on this HAS changed."

Well, that's fair. Everyone can judge for themselves whether your reasons for the change make sense. Nonetheless, it seems to me that if you are going to accuse others of being hysterical about currency (for whatever reason) when, just a few years ago you were likewise hysterical about it (incorrectly, as it turns out), you should acknowledge your prior (incorrect) hysteria and say you were wrong about it.

 

JEREMYABRAMS

2:24 AM ET

October 22, 2009

currencies

Three guys jump out of a plane. Have you heard this one? They link arms like acrobatic parachutists as they fall toward the earth. They do not however have parachutes.

One of them is the dollar, one of them is the yen, and one of them is the yuan. As they plummet earthward, each looks into they eyes of the other two and thinks to himself, "Say, we all seem to be about level."

 

Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

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