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MEMO TO BEIJING
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MEMO TO WASHINGTON
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SUPERBOWL
Touchdown, Abe Vigoda and Betty White
The global governance of apocalypses
Posted By Daniel W. Drezner
Tuesday, November 24, 2009 - 9:26 PM
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I see that after seeing 2012, Blake Hounshell as assigned me with a blog task:
What is the proper forum for secret doomsday planning? The G-20? The U.N. Security Council? The P5+1 or the EU3 +3? Every country for itself? Mssrs. Drezner and Walt, I'm counting on you to chime in here.
I certainly can't speak for Steve, but it's worth pointing out here how big the mismatch is between how movies think end-of-the-world global governance looks like as compared to what would happen in the real world.
When the movies do it -- and here I'm thinking about Deep Impact, The Core, Children of Men, etc. -- there's usually a coterie of Really Smart People, or a Council of Elders, or some other expert-driven body that devises a risky but brilliant plan to solve the problem.
In the real world... well, I suspect the following would be true:
- There would be initial and profound disagreement among experts over what precisely to do;
- After a scientific consensus began to emerge, dissenters would go back to their home governments to lobby for political support
- There would be rampant suspicion of any multilateral effort by those asked to make an outsized contribution;
- The cost overruns... oh, the cost overruns;
- Conspiracy theories would pop up all over the friggin' place
- The plan wouldn't work.
That said, I suspect the answer to Blake's question is "none of the above." Unless the End of the World matched perfectly onto a pre-existing international organization, my hunch is that the great powers would start up something de novo.
Of course, if I actually knew the answer and was one of those Really Smart Persons tapped to solve the problem... well, then you'e all royally screwed.
UPDATE: Given my pessimism about the global governance of the End of Days, what can you do to prepare? Click here to find out. My favorite quote: "Make a list of friends and family who live nearby, then decide who you want with you."
Don't we all know the answer to this?
The Pentagon would create a new command for the problem.
If a meteor threatened the earth, it would be called Meteor Command, or Metcom. A global pandemic would produce Pancom and a rampaging horde of giant sea monsters would generate Squidcom. An approaching comet could be called Comcom, but because that sounds silly even by Pentagon standards the new command would probably be named officially for the specific comet in question.
All the relevant bodies would participate in whatever the new command ended up being called: the Army, the Navy and the Air Force. They would immediately begin negotiations as to the most important question, which is how procurement funding relevant to the impending threat was to be divided. One would have to assume the Air Force would claim preferential treatment in the case of threats from outer space, and also because the Air Force has historically spread its procurement spending most effectively among key Congressional districts. Squidcom would eventually generate leaks complaining that the Navy was absorbing a disproportionate share of the available funding. The Marines would complain that they were having to make do with less equipment than the other services, and would begin working out ways to make this a plus in recruitment.
The CIA would have to be involved, because if things went wrong and the end of the world happened despite all best efforts, someone would have to take the blame.
Foreign governments would absolutely have a seat at the table. Well, a seat at a table anyway. They would be attended by liaison officers who dropped off the career fast track. The usual exceptions would be made for the Anglophone countries except New Zealand, which would assume that any global calamity wouldn't affect it anyway.
The point is that if you want secret planning, you go to the people who plan all the time. This includes planning for how to plan secretly, and doing it without anyone finding out.
You're forgetting the crank scientist
Of course if this scenario were to play out like a movie, you're forgetting the crucial role of the crank scientist. You know the one - brilliant but unable to get along with anyone, shunned by his peers for his outlandish theories, and living alone in the woods. Think the unabomber minus the felony conviction. But suddenly when NASA discovers a comet hurtling towards earth, NASA's Chief Scientist suddenly remembers this guy out in the woods and sends someone out to get him. He reluctantly agrees "Bill, we need you!" and saves the day.
The Really Smart People are going to be playing 'Sauve Qui Peut,' not 'Save the World.' Join a fancier think tank, stop being so naive, and you might get dealt in on some of the details.
In Hoyle's lads' science fiction there was always a meeting in London to decide on a plan.
You forgot the BendOverCom
No, what would happen is all the despots, politicians and scientists would get together someplace like, Copenhagen, and talk about how the commet, or what ever it is going to be that will be the apocalypse, will impact man made global warming and how that is going to hurt their cause.
... And then Leslie Nielsen would burst into the room and beat them all up.
... And then Leslie Nielsen would burst into the room and beat them all up.
are bunk. We all know how humanity will end. Not with a bang, but with a whimper. And governments will do nothing about it, because they will decline along with us. When the book of planet earth is written, humans probably won't even get a full chapter.
The earth will be habitable for at least another billion years, probably more and for most of that time, we won't be here. Within a few thousand years (probably much much sooner), forces opposed to science and education will become more powerful, while science and education will go into decline. Disease will creep back in and the population will start to decline. (The dark ages happened several times before and will almost certainly happen again. And again.)
We will slowly return to a pre-industrial state and become just another species on this planet. Sooner or later we will become extinct as the world as a whole goes on just fine. In 30 million years, some other species will establish the next advanced civilization, and eventually they too will be replaced. And so on.
Establish a government program for that!
Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
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