Monday, November 30, 2009 - 2:25 PM
Apparently the Chinese premier feels like everyone is picking on his country and that's not fair:
China’s premier Wen Jiabao on Monday lashed out at the growing number of countries pressuring Beijing to strengthen its currency, making it clear that European officials made little headway in their efforts over the past two days to persuade the country to allow the renminbi to appreciate.
Speaking at the conclusion of an EU-China summit in the eastern Chinese city of Nanjing, Mr Wen said: “Some countries on the one hand want the renminbi to appreciate, but on the other hand engage in brazen trade protectionism against China. This is unfair. Their measures are a restriction on China’s development.” (emphasis added)
Wen has a legitimate complaint here about the rise in protectionism directed against China in particular. Of course, this begs the question of whether maybe, just maybe, the undervalued yuan might be driving some of that protectionist sentiment.
It would be interesting for the U.S. Trade Representative and the EU Trade Directorate to make the following proposal:
Hey, Wen, you're right about the unfair tire tariffs and the like. Let's make a trade deal: you allow the yuan to appreciate, say, 20% against the dollar over the next twelve months. In return, we will announce a voluntary two-year moratorium on any new anti-dumping and escape clause measures targeted against Chinese imports. What do you say?
To be honest, I'm not sure if this is legal, but it would be an interesting gambit.
Question to readers: which side would blink first at this deal?
No, it doesn't.
I am not sure if the Chinese would accept that deal. I would be inclined to say no. If we could not get them to do this when the economy was good, I cannot see this happening right now. I could also see them doing most of it toward the end of the 1 year deadline, if they accepted.
The EU probably has the better chance to "force" anything upon the Chinese. They have more leverage, it seems (I could be wrong), than the US does.
The question is can or will Obama try to do something like this? Can his team get it done? I would say right now, they are too wrapped up for now....
The Chinese, almost certainly. They need strong export growth more than the US.
The entire Chinese growth model is dependent upon export competitiveness. Plus they can just wait for the US anti-dump tariffs to be ruled illegal by the WTO.
First of all, a Chinese prime minister shoudn't be approached like "Hey, Wen". Secondly, grand bargains can be offered by US then, only then when the fall of dollar stops. At the moment, the Coke on the negotatiation table in DC. was bought from Chinese (British, Russian, Japanese) loan.
they won't let the yuan appreciate 20%
in my opinion there is no way they will let the yuan appreciate any time soon. China needs to export in order to keep growing and the way to do that is with a cheap currency.
Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
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