So, Pew has a new survey of elite and mass attitudes about foreign policy, and it's chock-full of interesting results.  Turns out Americans sound pretty realist right now:

The average American is both less internationalist and less multilateral

In the midst of two wars abroad and a sour economy at home, there has been a sharp rise in isolationist sentiment among the public. For the first time in more than 40 years of polling, a plurality (49%) says the United States should "mind its own business internationally" and let other countries get along the best they can on their own....

The public sees China's emerging power as more worrisome than do the foreign policy opinion leaders. There has been virtually no change since 2005 in the percentage of the public saying that China represents a major threat to the United States (53% today, 52% then). Moreover, while Iran is mentioned most often as the country that poses the greatest danger to the United States, China continues to rank among the countries frequently named by the public as dangers to the U.S....

At the same time, there has been a rise in unilateralist sentiment. Fully 44% say that because the United States "is the most powerful nation in the world, we should go our own way in international matters, not worrying about whether other countries agree with us or not." That is by far the highest percentage agreeing since the question was first asked by Gallup in 1964.

Hmmm... this sounds familiar.

Now, you might think supporters of these policy positions would be overjoyed at this news, or at least extoling the sage wisdom of the common folk of America.

The thing is, there are other results in this survey suggesting the public is kinda, sorta stupid*: 

In a reversal of opinion from the beginning of last year, 44% of the public now says China is the world's leading economic power, while just 27% name the United States. In February 2008, 41% said the U.S. was the top economic power while 30% said China.

Now I understand that China's relative power has grown vis-a-vis the United States in the past year two years decade.  Maybe in a decade or so, China will be the more powerful and robust economy.  Maybe.  Right now, however, there is simply no way you can describe China right now as "the world's leading economic power."

If you were to take a snapshot of the distribution of economic capabilities in the world, then the United States remains the most powerful country in the world, and it's not close.  The U.S. share of the global economy has hovered around 25% for the past decade.  This is twice the size of China or Japan, and far larger than that of any other individual nation-state.  Any measure of science and technology outputs generally has the United States coming out on top.  Historically, the U.S. is not only the current hegemon - the country controls a far greater share of the world's resources than most great powers of the past.  [But, but, but, China has the largest amount of official currency reserves in the world!!--ed.  Yes, and a fat lot of good that does Beijing.] 

Is China more economically powerful than it was in 2008?  Absolutely. Is it more powerful than the United States?  No f***ing way. 

There's a lot more to dig through here -- I'll be bashing the inconsitencies of foreign policy elites sometime this weekend.  But I highlight these results to suggest that anyone talking about this stuff as an example of the "wisdom of crowds" does not know what they are talking about.  These are very interesting results, but they're based on a pretty high degree of ignorance about world politics.

*Yes, the more accurate word to use would be "uninformed," but I'm trying to provoke here. 

 

ZATHRAS

4:47 AM ET

December 4, 2009

On the other hand....

....surveyed members of the American public mostly spend their lives doing things other than comparing economic statistics and considering world affairs. People who do nothing else with their lives than compare economic statistics and consider world affairs might ponder what adjectives the public they cheerfully call "dumb" might apply to them.

Complacent. Self-satisfied. Unproductive. Minimally useful. These are just some possibilities, but while these are being mulled over we should all take a moment to remember that a responsible foreign policy doesn't sustain itself without public support; that public support requires a measure of public understanding; and that public understanding of foreign policy isn't any more likely to develop spontaneously than public understanding of any other specialized branch of knowledge.

 

DANIEL W. DREZNER

4:57 AM ET

December 4, 2009

Agreed... sort of

I concur that a foreign policy that has broad mass support is both an intrinsically good thing and probably more viable in the long term.

That said, two additional thoughts.  First, a persuasive case can be made that the divorce between elite and mass public attitudes has been pretty constant for the past three decades. 

Second, if mass foreign policy attitudes are based on erroneous factual assumptions (and yes, it would be better to call Americans "uninformed" rather than "stupid"), then I'm not sure how rock-solid those attitudes really are.

 

ZATHRAS

4:45 PM ET

December 4, 2009

Well no kidding

If the American public is thinking about foreign policy using erroneous factual assumptions, whose fault is that?

Of course its conclusions will change if it starts to believe its assumptions were wrong. Events conveying new information will inevitably challenge public assumptions -- sometimes rightly, sometimes not -- but the public is also influenced by elite opinion. It is more favorably influenced if it has confidence in the elites (obviously, this is shorthand for people responsible for the making of foreign policy and for communicating knowledge of the subject), and if the elites are effective in communicating knowledge to the public.

The public is the customer in this marketplace. Elites -- any elites, not just those relevant to this particular area of policy -- can be replaced or rendered irrelevant, but the public never can. The elites' responsibility is to convey correct information to the public, not simply to be aware of correct information itself, and for practical purposes this is a one-way street; the public has no equivalent responsibility to seek out the opinion of experts, particularly after a period in which much expert opinion in this field pushed the United States into policies widely recognized to have harmed the country's interests.

I recognize the many difficulties presented by competition for the public's attention, and by the ever-present dedication of a large part of the foreign policy elite to telling the public what the public wants to, or is believed to want to, hear. Difficulties are not excuses.

 

DRLAKE777

12:06 PM ET

December 4, 2009

I prefer "ignorant", but all

I prefer "ignorant", but all too often it is "willfully ignorant."

The fact that attitudes are based on erroneous beliefs about the world would indicate they are somewhat unstable, but with two provisos:

First, there is a substantial minority of the American public that for whatever reason are completely immune to facts. I suspect that's universal to humanity, but there are enough studies to show that 20-30% of the American public cling to their beliefs even when confronted with overwhelming disconfirming information.

Second, I'm not sure it is possible to re-educate the public about public affairs any more. Yes, you can put out factual information and try to disseminate it widely, but given the fragmentation of the media landscape and the quantity of "information" sources that apparently exist solely to spread inaccurate information, I think we're screwed.

 

BLUE13326

12:18 AM ET

December 5, 2009

'I suspect that's universal

'I suspect that's universal to humanity, but there are enough studies to show that 20-30% of the American public cling to their beliefs even when confronted with overwhelming disconfirming information.'

Yes, and unfortunately the majority of those seem to be teaching at our universities, which compounds the problem.

As far as China, take a walk into any financial advisor's office, and nearly universally you will be told you have to invest in China. And you have to invest in where China is going to be putting its vast reserves. That's what at least the investing public is being told: That China is the real capitalism, the next place of dynamism, as America drowns under its debt and burgeoning bureaucratic state. So maybe they're just projecting future expectations on to the present?

 

DRLAKE777

1:38 AM ET

December 6, 2009

Not unless you think

Not unless you think university faculties are full of Tea Party members. In fact, the majority of the factually challenged segment of America's population watch Faux news.

 

PFNOVAK

12:27 AM ET

December 5, 2009

Most people look for facts to

Most people look for facts to support their opinions (or have news outlets feed them such information). This is not news. Also, in American society the news outlets are geared towards profits, and a hysterical story about the rise of China or the decline of America is much easier to sell than a ho-hum stat-based analysis about America's economic influence. This mirrors political discourse, where nobody's going to win votes during a period of high unemployment by reminding people that America still has a higher share of world GDP than anyone else. A politician may invoke bland overused rhetoric about the resilience of American spirit or work ethic, but if he does not convince the voter that the Chinese (or Islamic terrorists) are taking over the world, then the voter may as well stay at home on Election Day. H.L. Mencken wrote in the 1920's that every political campaign in America on both sides of the aisle came down to repackaging Puritan, apocalyptic rhetoric in their terms. I see no evidence that this has changed, and it is this climate of exaggeration, fear and outrage, rather than ignorance, that causes the American public to gravitate towards opinions unsupported by fact.

 

FP WONK STEVE

1:10 AM ET

December 5, 2009

A very good point

The part about the climate of exaggeration, fear, and outrage has me thinking.

In the "old days", pre 1900 per say, people inflicted with those feelings did so usually because of a lack of literal knowledge. Like witchcraft trials, falling off the earth because it has to be flat, etc.

Now we have people who are so dense, like that co-host on the show, The View, saying that she believed the world was flat and she was serious. You have people that are killing their health eating too much and never want to be helped with their obesity. They want you to just accept their condition unconditionally.

How or where does the problems of how we now accept things that are obviously wrong and create new rules to justify it. This looks more like "Arrogance", "Narcissism", and an absence of some kind of discipline.

Reminds me of Athenians..... What other examples of this phenomenon are there?

 

FP WONK STEVE

12:55 AM ET

December 5, 2009

Entitled to our own facts

This is not going to be a very PC statement but, Americans are "pussing-out". We are soooooo afraid to offend anyone with criticism, (not racism, insults, etc)that people here have gotten into their heads that there is no such thing as wrong.

There is only "my way" or the word "choice" being blended with the word "opinion".

We have made an exodus from facts and logic, because they are too black and white. Thinking outside of the box is not so much like network hacking or troubleshooting a problem, it is now the exaggerated emotional feeling of someone's impulses and urges in various forms of expression.

It creates imbalance. One side gets disgusted by the other and both sides retreat to extreme positions. Completely unaware that they are both feeding illogical/irrational desires that are self defeating and destructive.

For example, some of the criticisms of Bill Cosby a few years back, were very spot on, in regards to issues in the black community. Micheal Eric Dyson and other scholars quickly jumped up to discredit Cosby and attack his personal character, in "defense" of Black America's shortcomings.

Dyson is not a dummy, he has a PhD, and he makes good points when he uses a factual analysis. Cosby is not a dummy either when he does not make stereotypical rants based on what he probably sees on TV.

The bottom line is that the two of them fighting each other by retreating hard to extreme positions based on their own personal feelings, did not maximize the effect their valid points could have had on the community. It just creates a "Who's side are you on?" scenario and everyone loses.

Same thing applies to local and international politics. Now this kind of thinking, mental process, teaching style, learning style, is RAMPANT. Everyone is doing it. It is now a part of American culture, which makes it HARD to shake off.

 

SURESH SHETH

3:49 PM ET

December 6, 2009

dumbness of American people=absurdity of US government

It is a height of sheer absurdity for US government to claim that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are in danger of falling in to the hands of Islamic extremists if Taliban insurgency wins in Afghanistan when Pakistan’s current democratic as well as previous military governments are sheltering and protecting the leaders of that very Taliban Afghan insurgency in Quetta, the provincial capital of Baluchistan.

General McChrystal clearly laid out in his assessment to President Obama that:
1. Most insurgent fighters in Afghanistan are directed by a small number of Afghan senior leaders based in Pakistan that work through an alternative political infrastructure in Afghanistan.
2. The Quetta Shura Taliban (QST) based in Quetta, the provincial capital of Baluchistan, is the No. 1 threat to US/NATO mission in Afghanistan. At the operational level, the Quetta Shura conducts a formal campaign review each winter, after which Mullah Mohammed Omar (Afghan Taliban Chief) announces his guidance and intent for the coming year.
3. Afghanistan's insurgency is clearly supported from Pakistan. Senior leaders of the major Afghan insurgent groups (QST, HQN and HiG) are based in Pakistan, are linked with al Qaeda and other violent extremist groups, and are reportedly aided by some elements of Pakistan's lSI. Al Qaeda and associated movements (AQAM) based in Pakistan channel foreign fighters, suicide bombers, and technical assistance into Afghanistan, and offer ideological motivation, training, and financial support.

Pakistan is sheltering and protecting these Afghan insurgent groups to reestablish its writ in Afghanistan as and when US leaves.

As Times of London reported on 9/28/09, Pakistani government started to relocate Afghan Taliban’s QST leaders to Karachi to protect them from impending US drone attacks on Quetta after the submittal of General McChrystal’s assessment.

With an ally like Pakistan, US has NO chance of winning in Afghanistan no matter how much military efforts or aid US pours there.

 

LUNDY KEROL

12:21 AM ET

December 7, 2009

American public realist!!!

The American public is pretty realist as the title implies, that sentence makes me so happy that I would like to quote the first man on the moon Neil Armstrong to express my satisfaction with this great progress "this is a small step for man and a giant leap for mankind”. However when I take a closer look at the questions above, I am dismay to see that the questions are the epitome of arrogance and ignorance, the staggering percentage to the answers shows that American public has not move an iota from the "American Exceptionalism" mindset. One doesn't have to hold a degree in International Relations or PolSci expert to know that without the US meddling in others business, the American people would not be able to live that kind of lifestyle. We are living in a globalized world where interaction with others is the norm. I think we should adopt the Chinese policy instead, interact with everyone, but not meddling in others businesses. We cannot do as we want in the current international context, if we choose to do so; we would always be asking ourselves that same question: Why do they hate us?

 

MUKELI

5:06 PM ET

December 7, 2009

Realist depending on the mood?

I'm not sure if I buy the argument that Americans are realist for two reasons. The first is due continued American support of the UN's role in international affairs. In fact, they hold that the organization should play a large role in the world according to the Gallup survey from this past March. Second, the Pew report shows that a high majority of Americans believe that the US government should consider the views of its major allies. Americans aren't realist, just caught between wanting their own way while having others like them.

 

KEVINMALEY

3:34 AM ET

December 10, 2009

Its worse

Surveys also show a declining percentage of the American public believes in global warming, down from a peak a few years ago. It is a disturbing trend and, along with the misinformed views on China, a reflection of cultural attitudes mixed with a terrible, terrible "media" that does not serve anything in the form of relevant information for the citizenry

 

PERCNON

3:54 PM ET

December 12, 2009

I think its a bit unfair to

I think its a bit unfair to call the public 'dumb'. The derision should be squarely aimed at the media and its associated politicians who have created this impression and, it must be said, the academics who have gone along with this 'China is taking over!' narrative. I've said it before on FP.com and I'll say it again: the extent to which the U.S. has declined economically and (therefore) geopolitically should not be underestimated, however taking that serious decline and comparing it to the fact that the U.S. is still overwhelmingly supreme in more or less every economic and geopolitical sense just goes to show how unbalanced the situation was to begin with.

The U.S. has fallen far - but from such great heights that the bottom remains out of sight.

Of course, this is not sensationalistic enough so the narratives of 'beware China!' tend to take over. Hence the misperception.

Blame the lack of intelligent public discourse, not the public per se.

 

Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

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