Steve Walt effectively vivisects Adam Lawther's op-ed yesterday on the alleged positive externalities that an Iranian nuclear bomb would have on the Middle East and American foreign policy.  Rather than dogpile on, I'm going to go meta again. 

I'm intrigued by what op-ed editor David Shipley is trying to do on the Iran debate.  Lawther's op-ed is hardly the first strange op-ed on Iran to appear in the past few months.  We've also had Alan Kuperman's analysis for why bombing Iran is such a good idea, and the Leverett's pay-no-attention-to-the-protestors-behind-the-curtain argument for enhanced engagement with the current Iranian leadership. 

As the links above suggest, I'm not a fan of any of these arguments.  That said, I am a fan of having these arguments inserted into the public discussion over Iran.  Ever since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, a common lament has been that was no public debate about the wisdom of different policy options.  Both foreign policy mooseheads and scholars have highlighted this pre-invasion consensus.  These analyses might be somewhat exaggerated, but I think it would be difficult to deny that in the opinion pages of the major newspapers, the deck was somewhat stacked in favor of military action. 

My hunch is that Shipley is thinking:  "Won't Get Fooled Again"  He wants as heterogeneous an array of views as possible as the Iran situation develops. 

There is something laudable about this if it's true -- it's exactly what the Times op-ed page should be doing as a foreign policy crisis unfolds.  My only concern is the caliber of reasoning in these op-eds.  They are, as Walt put it, "silly arguments."  On the other hand, if these ideas are vetted and then shot down, maybe the foreign policy community actually knows what it's talking about this time around. 

Mario Tama/Getty Images

 

HASS

8:35 PM ET

February 10, 2010

Some facts

1- There is ZERO evidence of a nuclear weapons program in Iran, no matter how much scaremongering is metted out in our media by the likes of Kuperman

2- The people of Iran -- including the same protestors and especially Mousavi -- support their nuclear program. There is simply no doubt about that. Iranians, like other people, love their country and deeply resent it when foreign powers threaten to bomb them for making technological advances. How would YOU react if the tables were turned and Iran threatened to bomb the US? Why assume Iranians would react differently? After all, Iran has a long history of being threatened by colonial powers for the same sort of thing -- Russia threatened to invade Iran for building a railroad, for example. Iranians remember and resent this sort of thing deeply.

3- There is no evidence that the elections in Iran were fraudulent. None of the claims about fraud have withstood scrutiny.

4- Polls taken before and after the elections consistently state that the majority did indeed vote for Ahmadinejad.

5- Mousavi, the head of the green movement who was supposedly cheated out of a victory, is a revolutionary insider, a former top-level government official, and was specifically vetted and pre-cleared to run for office....and so his election hardly constituted a threat to the system that would require the regime to resort to massive election fraud to keep him out of office.

 

Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

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