Posted By Daniel W. Drezner Share

How badly has Israel f**ked up in its response to a flotilla intending to deliver aid to Hamas-controlled Gaza?  Pretty f**king badly

Sure, you can argue that the people on the ships weren't exactly Christ-like in their embrace of nonviolence.  Based on the number of e-mails I got from the flotilla organizers in the last 72 hours, they were dying for a confrontation with Israeli forces.  That said, it should be possible to gain control of an unruly ship without, you know, killing more than ten people, further worsening relations with your primary regional ally, and forcing the UN Security Council into emergency session.   At this rate, Israel and the Netanyahu government will be blamed for the sinking of the Cheonan and the cancellation of Law & Order by the end of the week. 

Gideon Rachman thinks Israel is placing itself in an increasingly untenable situation

There are three particular angles for the Israelis to worry about. First, that there will be some sort of new intifada. Second, the continued deterioration in their relationship with Turkey. Third, their fraying ties with the Obama administration.

My colleague in Israel, Tobias Buck, seems to rate the chances of renewed unrest in the Palestinian territories as fairly high. That would obviously be a major blow. For the last year, Israel has been quietly building a fairly decent relationship with the Palestinian Authority on the West Bank. And Hamas, bottled up on the West Bank with the connivance of the Egyptians, has also been relatively quiet....

Ironically, a sanctions package against Iran is arguably as much in the interests of Israel, as in the interests of the US itself. The US may now feel that it has to go along with a UN condemnation of Israel to preserve the chances of getting its Iran resolution through. It would be a classic Israeli own goal, if their assault on the Gaza ships sank the choices of a new resolution on Iran.

I concur with Jeffrey Goldberg -- episodes like this are exposing the lack of Israeli wisdom in thinking about its situation: 

There is a word in Yiddish, seichel, which means wisdom, but it also means more than that: It connotes ingenuity, creativity, subtlety, nuance. Jews have always needed seichel to survive in this world; a person in possession of a Yiddishe kop, a "Jewish head," is someone who has seichel, someone who looks for a clever way out of problems, someone who understands that the most direct way -- blunt force, for instance -- often represents the least elegant solution, a person who can foresee consequences of his actions....

I'm trying to figure out this story for myself. But I will say this: What I know already makes me worried for the future of Israel, a worry I feel in a deeper way than I think I have ever felt before. The Jewish people have survived this long in part because of the vision of their leaders, men and women who were able to intuit what was possible and what was impossible. Where is this vision today? Israel may face, in the coming year, a threat to its existence the likes of which it has not experienced before: A theologically-motivated regional superpower with a nuclear arsenal. It faces another existential threat as well, from forces arguing that Israel's morally disastrous settlement policy fatally undermines the very idea of a Jewish state. Is Israel ready to deploy seichel in these battles, rather than mere force

Ha'aretz columnists are saying no -- and based on Israel's foreign policy and approach towards the occupied territories, I can't say I disagree with them.  Indeed, the parallels between Israel and -- gulp -- North Korea are becoming pretty eerie.  True, Israel's economy is thriving and North Korea's is not.  That said, both countries are diplomatically isolated except for their ties to a great power benefactor.   Both countries are pursuing autarkic policies that immiserate millions of people.  The majority of the population in both countries seem blithely unaware of what the rest of the world thinks.  Both countries face hostile regional environments.  Both countries keep getting referred to the United Nations.  And, in the past month, the great power benefactor is finding it more and more difficult to defend their behavior to the rest of the world. 

The Obama administration has reacted to this incident in remarkably similar ways to China's reaction to the Cheonan incident -- with a call for more information.  Rachman wonders if there will be a quid pro quo on Iran and Israel at the Security Council.  I wonder if the quid pro quo will involve Jerusalem and Pyongyang. 

Developing.... in a ridiculously bad way for Israel. 

 

BLUE13326

10:06 PM ET

May 31, 2010

meh...this attempt to make a

meh...this attempt to make a parallel between the two countries comes off as silly.

 

FP WONK STEVE

12:57 AM ET

June 1, 2010

Not the..

It's similar in respects to UN involvement/complaints. Still reaching a little far, but I understand your reservations.

The part where the Iran Sanctions getting passed through the Security Council, being in jeopardy, are very warranted. I can imagine China/Russia or another member, pulling the Israel card later on.... It won't help those sanctions, that's for sure.

 

ZATHRAS

2:50 AM ET

June 1, 2010

I generally agree with Dan's

I generally agree with Dan's appalled reaction to this incident, though the North Korean analogy looks to me like one of those peculiar ideas that sometimes come out when one is writing under time pressure.

One thing, though: I don't think the Israeli-Turkish relationship is imperilled by anything that happened within the last 48 hours. The Israeli-Turkish relationship is instead a casualty of internal Turkish politics. The Islamist Turkish government knows that Israel is less than popular with much of the Turkish public, especially with its own constituency, and knows also that the heretofore close relationship between Turkey and Israel was a product of previous secular Turkish governments in which the Turkish military was influential. It sought to make an incident that would put the burden of good relations with the unpopular Israelis on its domestic political opponents.

If it hadn't been the Gaza flotilla incident, it would have been something else. The current Turkish government just doesn't value the relationship with Israel as its predecessors did. Israel's contribution was to make this particular incident look much worse than it might have, but as far as Turkey is concerned the story is not its reaction to the incident but rather its role in making it possible.

 

EFFINAYRIGHT

4:03 AM ET

June 1, 2010

Israel

Oh yeah: Israel's just like North Korea.

Its starving people are eating grass. It's surrounded by enemies on all sides, includuing China. The US , China and the Russians have all declared their intent to destroy it, and have sat idly by while the South shells it and sends rockets into it.

Yeah, right.

Drezner, we're onto to glib-but-shallow morons such as yourself. In the Obama Caliphate your perfidy will rewarded, or so you think.

If you yourself Jewish, as your name would indicate, you must be an extra-ordinarily self-hating POS.

 

TWISTED_COLOUR

5:57 AM ET

June 1, 2010

Israel

Israel - a hotbed of freedom... unless you're living in Gaza.

 

GEORGANN MARKS

3:24 PM ET

June 1, 2010

self hating POS's

There seem to be a bunch of em lately.... because Jews I know are fed up with Israel - her genocidal treatment of her neighbors - and the fantasy that murdering your neighbors kids will win a demographic struggle for that miserable hunk of sand.

 

CHARLES_KUNTZ

9:51 PM ET

June 1, 2010

Self-hating POS?

So an American citizen who happens to be Jewish can't criticize a foreign state that proclaims itself the homeland of all Jews without being a self-hating piece of shit?

Your logic is impeccable. I guess Eisenhower was a self-hating POS too. And any Irish-Catholic American who criticized the IRA is a self-hating piece of shit, too. Maybe you should re-evaluate the concept of loyalty and patriotism. American Jews are Americans first. I don't give a shit about my German ancestry. Why should Jews give a shit about Israel? Fuck tribalism.

 

MICHAEL J. TOTTEN

4:18 AM ET

June 1, 2010

North Korea is the most viciously repressive place in the world

You might want to re-think this one, Daniel.

 

SCHMUCK281

4:53 AM ET

June 1, 2010

North Korea

Agree that the response to this bunch of terrorist sympathizers was botched.
I think there was more political input than military planning involved.

But there is no comparison between North Korea and Israel. There is a closer match between North Korea and Hamas. One is a Stalinist police state with some technical skills and the other is just a terrorist gang. Hamas hasn't even shown that they possess the skills to do anything except building simple rockets that they have to launch from kindergartens. North Korea, bad as it is, has shown that it has some skills. They can actually sell things to the Palestinians who have only shown a knack for begging.

They can't govern, they can't provide for their people, and, in case it has slipped everyone's mind, Gaza shares a border with Egypt. They could build a big assed freeway through that border. If they were capable of building anything, and if the Egyptians actually gave a damn about the Palestinians, which they don't.

 

PRATTNER

4:53 AM ET

June 1, 2010

You gotta be kidding

Israel's bad behavior? That flotilla was a deliberate provocation, and the deaths on the ship were not intentional. That marks the difference between the Palestinians (and their enablers and sympathizers) and the Israelis. Palestine fires rockets into Israel hoping to hit someone innocent, while Israel drops leaflets in war zones telling the innocent to flee before the fighting begins.

If the Palestinians unilaterally disarmed, Israel would leave them alone. If Israel unilaterally disarmed, the Palestinians would kill them all. I just can't see how reasonable people find the two groups somehow comparable.

I would like to know what arm chair generals like yourself would have chosen to do in the circumstances. Just let the ships land at Gaza and deliver their weapons? Wouldn't more ships be on the way after these, and wouldn't that show of weakness embolden Israel's enemies further?

They did not sink these ships. Force was their only choice, and Israel chose the bare minimum of force possible, with plenty of warnings beforehand. What else could they have done?

 

TWISTED_COLOUR

6:02 AM ET

June 1, 2010

Yes, Israel's bad behavior.

Yes, Israel's bad behavior. Attacking a flagged vessel in international waters and killing crew members when they, quite legally, attempt to defend thier vessel.

"If the Palestinians unilaterally disarmed, Israel would leave them alone." Bullsh*t, they'd just use it as an excuse to steal more Palestinian land.

 

RET

5:18 AM ET

June 1, 2010

Your Expectations are Way to high

The Jewish population and wealth (and outside the Negev even size) Israel is slightly less, but comparable to metro Philly. Why people expect Israel to have the diplomatic finesse, military muscle, PR chops and deep bench of a mid weight European power is beyond me.

The last time a European nation of even larger population and greater wealth was put to the test (Greece) it failed utterly in the sense that their are few outside Greece who would defend their actions.-- Considerably worse than Israel which has a very presentable counter narrative to its opponents' case. Yet Israel is judged by standards that even a super power would find tricky to satisfy.

Finally this immigrant Jewish folklore hype has gotten out of hand. People find resourceful solutions when they are desperate or when they have space to be creative. Not because they are magic Jews. Since Israelis are neither desperate and since their actions are heavily scrutinized from all quarters neither condition is met. Instead you get the plodding resource heavy procedures that are common when one is trying to avoid making a legal mistake.

In short there is not much Israel can do live up to Dan's standards.

 

TWISTED_COLOUR

5:55 AM ET

June 1, 2010

 

ROBBIE

7:09 AM ET

June 1, 2010

Israel

A few weeks ago Russia captured dozens of Somali pirates. You can see them on YouTube. Supplicant and handcuffed. The next day they were all dead. Did Russia F**k up?

Nope. 'Cause Russia doesn't give a f**k what Daniel W. Drezner or anyone else thinks of them.

Unlike Israel, Mr. Drezner knows Russia can't be hustled, manipulated, conned or embarrased into wetting their pants and groveling before the "world community".

So Mr. Drezner doesn't even bother writing about the Russian murder of Somalis.

But since Israel is infected with the disease of liberal "how do I look" Judaism, he's all over it like a fly on a cow patty.

 

W. L. RICHARDS

7:20 AM ET

June 1, 2010

Flotilla

The only other option I can see for Israel would have been to ignore the provocation and permit the flotilla to proceed. But this seems unsatisfactory. This being perceived as Israeli weakness, further provocations would have followed.
What other options existed for Israel?

 

IRA_S

8:41 AM ET

June 1, 2010

Poor Analysis

I am not quite sure what the options were for Israel in this sense. Where the "seichel" is supposed to be.
Let's see Israel's other options:
1. Let the flotilla go through and open up a sea lane for the delivery of weapons to Hamas in Gaza. This is the result regardless of the cargo on this particular flotilla. This is not an option for the Israeli government or military.
2. Disable the ships at sea and leave them there. Who would be responsible then to feed these people? Turkey? Greece? EU? No - Israel would be condemned for letting people starve in the middle of the sea.
3. Take over the ships. This is what was done. Could the tactics have been different? Possibly. Is it really so easy to take over a ship in the middle of the sea without casualties? Possibly, but I would like to think a Navy SEAL would respond instead of a pundit or professor. My guess is that no navy would have done any better facing the same harsh responses.
4. Is Israel only dependent upon the US as N Korea is on China? I think that you have not read up on Israeli foreign and trade policy over the last 15 years. Israeli trade with India and China are exploding. Relations with those countries is also on the rise. This is also true with most countries of the former Soviet Union (including Russia) as well as the EU and many African and Latin American countries.
5. The reality is that in the UN/diplomatic community Israel is always wrong while in the business and trade world, we are welcomed with open arms. Which community should we pay attention to more?

 

IRA_S

12:19 PM ET

June 2, 2010

Reply to J Thomas

1. The only way to know if there are no weapons on the ship is to inspect them. That is why Israel offerred to truck all non-military supplies to Gaza from their port at their expense. True enough the purpose of the blockade is not just to stop the flow of weapons but rather the flow of other items like concrete which is used to fortify bunkers and prospective missile sites. The other "goals" are simply to stop a terrorist organization, Hamas, from tightening its grip on the mideast.
2. We talk about dealing "at leisure" now, but the truth still remains that after 48 hours there the UN would be demanding that these ships be fixed and allowed to "proceed".
3. Not quite a bunch of pacifists on the Maramara - maybe on the other 5 ships which were taken over peacefully without incident. Had Israel wanted to massacre the participants, why didn't they massacre people on all the ships. A core of people on the Marmara were either mercenaries or terrorists or thugs - pretty clear from what happened.
5. Stopping the blockade is a great idea - assuming that Hamas won't arm. However, it is clear that they will. The solution is for the Palestinians to rise up against Hamas and create a real state with a real economy. One that would lead to the building of an independent port. But that cannot happen as long as the goal of the Hamas leadership is to destroy (Israel) and not to build (Palestine).
6. Keep a cease fire? Israel has kept every cease fire. The provocations always come from the Palestinian side.
7. A final comment: This really is just another example of the traditional Palestinian use of human shields to further their "cause".

 

THE MEDITANT

9:30 AM ET

June 1, 2010

I wonder who Jews think

I wonder who Jews think they're kidding? So Israel claims to be scared of those who stand up and try to defend themselves (like Hamas or Hezbollah) against Jewish aggression and terrorism (of the armed robber kind) and they want us to think along with them that this justifies all the murder, butchery and savagery which are the cornerstones upon which Israel society is founded. I wonder out loud if this rule and reaction applies universally? It doesn't. Are Palestinians allowed to be scared - so scared that they invade a Jewish neighborhood in Crown Heights, murder a bunch of innocent Jews - including children, the elderly and pregnant women, flatten the neighborhood & surround it with barbed wire, steal the money - and call it "self defense?" That is exactly the height of current Jewish wisdom that keeps pumping out of the mouths of these Jewish bloggers and paid-to-post forum participants. So is this now the international rule - that anything goes as long as you can claim you were scared? Of course not. Apparently, being "scared" has proven extremely profitable for Jews. There seems to be one rule for Jews (in essence, no rules or restrictions) and another for the rest of humanity.

 

PABARGE

12:23 PM ET

June 1, 2010

Drezner and Gaza Gangsters

"Based on the number of e-mails I got from the flotilla organizers in the last 72 hours.."

You've been corresponding with people who organized the deliberate running of the Israel + Egypt blockade for 3 days?

And you expect us to pay attention to what you have to say about Israel?

 

DANIEL W. DREZNER

1:32 PM ET

June 1, 2010

Corresponding implies I wrote back

You've never been the recipient of blast e-mails? 

 

A.S.

1:36 PM ET

June 1, 2010

Drezner's military analysis

"it should be possible to gain control of an unruly ship without, you know, killing more than ten people"

Ha ha. I assume this is based on Prof. Drezner's extensive experience as a, what, Colonel? Major? General? in the military specializing in airborne amphibious assault. Perhaps Prof./Col./Maj./Gen. Drezner can show us his military plan to take the ships without casualties. I am sure he could enlighten us all.

(On a slightly less snarky note - why is it that Ivory Tower academics think they are so much more intelligent than everyone else in the world that that confidently make assertions about things that they clearly unqualified to make and that they have no idea about? Is it some kind of disease of academia that causes this to happen? Academia Arrogance Gigantism?)

 

JUMBO

3:36 AM ET

June 16, 2010

No brains, big ego! but hey, we are wearing boots!!!

"why is it that Ivory Tower academics think they are so much more intelligent than everyone else "
well... not sure about academics being more intelligent than everyone else in the world, but Drezner at least is tons smarter than many people who spent their entire lives in boots. Once you have a brilliant and open mind as he does, you do not need to spend time in boots to understand the realities of war; while when you are a tiny brain wearing too big boots, the mere fact of wearing them cannot compensate for what mother nature has not endowed you with... people like Drezner can do your job with the appropriate training, while you will never have Drezner's mind no matter how hard you tried. people like him can acquire at any time the relevant training and qualifications, but not every one wearing boots can produce the set of ideas he does. So, I am not sure that this is about "Academia Arrogance Gigantism," but maybe more about "Ignorant Small Brains Wearing too Big Boots"...

 

PABARGE

2:42 PM ET

June 1, 2010

Drezner and Gaza Gangsters II

"they [Flotilla organizers] were dying for a confrontation with Israeli forces"

And you were corresponding with these people for 3 days?

And you want us to respect what you have to write about Israel?

Now we know.

Not happening.

 

AIDAWEDO

7:11 PM ET

June 1, 2010

Isreal's Got a Familiar Sinking Sensation

"At this rate, Israel and the Netanyahu government will be blamed for the sinking of the Cheonan and the cancellation of Law & Order by the end of the week."

Israel may not be accused of the sinking of the Cheonan, but definitely the attempted sinking of the USS Liberty -- 34 Americans were killed and 173 injured in Israel's 1967 attack on the U.S.S. Liberty.

 

JJACKSON

7:24 PM ET

June 1, 2010

I am a little confused about this bit ...

from Jeff Goldberg
"Israel may face, in the coming year, a threat to its existence the likes of which it has not experienced before: A theologically-motivated regional superpower with a nuclear arsenal."
While Israel is often murderous and, with its latest foray into piracy, getting suicidal I really can not see it turning its own WMDs on itself.

 

DAVID IN DC

10:06 AM ET

June 2, 2010

Dying for a confrontation

Based on the number of e-mails I got from the flotilla organizers in the last 72 hours, they were dying for a confrontation with Israeli forces.

Well, they got their wish. Literally. Was the choice of words intentional?

...and forcing the UN Security Council into emergency session...

Another interesting choice of words. Forcing? Right, I'm sure they went kicking and screaming. ;o)

This would be the 11th special session in UN history. Any guesses how many focused on one tiny country on the eastern side of the Mediterranean? No peeking before you guess :-).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_emergency_special_sessions_of_the_United_Nations_General_Assembly

 

DAVID IN DC

4:41 PM ET

June 2, 2010

This would only be an apt

This would only be an apt analogy if:

1) MLK was abetting a group committed to the destruction of the US, and
2) attacked with deadly force a group soldiers who tried to break up their action with paintball guns.

Neither of which is true. I don't think MLK would have anything to do with these violent "peace activists" or the genocidal terror group they are trying to aid. The comparison is an insult to him and his fellow non-violent civil rights activists.

 

JAGELLER

5:45 PM ET

June 2, 2010

Where does your analogy break down?

Your analogy is broadly valid, but has some serious limitations, to wit:

1) The Cheonan posed no imminent security threat; the flotilla arguably did.
2) North Korea does not suffer rocket, nor any, attacks from South Korea (at least not recently); Hamas has fired circa 7,000 over civilian areas.
3) Korea is embroiled in what is essentially a protracted civil war; Israel and Hamas represent two distinct nations.
4) Whereas South Korea fights for Korea's eventual national unification, Hamas continues to fight explicitly for the ethnic cleansing of what they consider to be Palestine; there is no room for any Israel in Hamas' charter.
5) North Korea launched a torpedo; the IDF came armed with paintball guns and pistols.
6) North Korea denies that it even attacked the Cheonan; Israel not only admitted its responsibility but released reams of footage in defense of its actions.
7) Compare the South Korean Sunshine Policy (abandoned only recently) to Hamas' own charter: "There is no solution for the Palestinian question except through Jihad. Initiatives, proposals and international conferences are all a waste of time and vain endeavors."

...etc.

Has any undergraduate ever taken an introductory history or IR course without being warned of the danger in drawing such analogies?

 

WILL2713

5:17 PM ET

June 3, 2010

it's the occupation stupid

Gaza is part of Palestine. It can't survive w/o the West Bank. They are inseparable. The simpletons with blinders on who can't even pronounce Hamas (Chamas) make much of the fact that its charter doesn't recognize Israel. So what, the Likud Charter doesn't recognize Palestine. tit for tat.

Meshal has said he would recognize 1967 Israel. All the Arab States have signed on to the Saudi Beirut initiative but the New Afrikaaners want to keep on colonizing East Jerusalem & the West Bank and hold on to the settlements.

The U.N. is awful, the resolutions are to be disobeyed except when it is to be used against Iraq or Iran, of course.

The Israeli Firsters have embroiled the U.S. now in two Mid East wars, cost us ten thousand dead, fifty thousand wounded, ten trillion dollars blown, wrecked our economy, and the sheep people have not yet woke up yet!

 

BLUESHELL

6:25 AM ET

June 8, 2010

If the Palestinians unilaterally disarmed

"If the Palestinians unilaterally disarmed, Israel would leave them alone." Bullsh*t, they'd just use coach outlet as an excuse to steal more Palestinian land.

 

Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

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