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Why Does the U.S. Get All the Tornadoes?
Posted By Daniel W. Drezner
Tuesday, June 1, 2010 - 1:28 PM
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Ben Smith reports that China is facing mounting pressure because of its refusal to condemn North Korea for its sinking of the Cheonan:
Oh, wait, you know what? I might have mixed up some of the words in that cut and paste. Here's the original:
With roughly the population of Houston, Texas, Israel is just not large enough to withstand extended isolation, meaning this event has profound geopolitical implications.
Public opinion matters where issues are not of fundamental interest to a nation. Israel is not a fundamental interest to other nations. The ability to generate public antipathy to Israel can therefore reshape Israeli relations with countries critical to Israel. For example, a redefinition of U.S.-Israeli relations will have much less effect on the United States than on Israel. The Obama administration, already irritated by the Israelis, might now see a shift in U.S. public opinion that will open the way to a new U.S.-Israeli relationship disadvantageous to Israel.
The Israelis will argue that this is all unfair, as they were provoked... they seem to think that the issue is whose logic is correct. But the issue actually is, whose logic will be heard? As with a tank battle or an airstrike, this sort of warfare has nothing to do with fairness. It has to do with controlling public perception and using that public perception to shape foreign policy around the world. In this case, the issue will be whether the deaths were necessary. The Israeli argument of provocation will have limited traction.
Internationally, there is little doubt that the incident will generate a firestorm. Certainly, Turkey will break cooperation with Israel. Opinion in Europe will likely harden. And public opinion in the United States — by far the most important in the equation — might shift to a “plague-on-both-your-houses” position.
This is serious, because you have people like Jim Henley minimizing the threat to Israel:
Israel not only no longer faces any enemies who pose an existential threat, it doesn’t even have enemies who can thwart any strongly held Israeli policy aim. No state is going to go to war to “destroy Israel.” I doubt any state particularly wants to. Certainly no state that might want to can do so. But beyond that, no state is going to go to war on behalf of the Palestinians and the Palestinians lack the power to launch an effective war on their own behalf.
Henley is correct about the current military balance of power, but the notion that Israel has no existential threats to worry about is absurd. The people who control Gaza don't recognize Israel's right to exist, and there's a government in the region that keeps talking about wanting to wipe the country off the face of the map. They're not powerful enough at present to take action -- but that hardly means that they won't take such action in the future should they acquire greater capabilities.
All of this is taking place at a moment when Turkey is pivoting against Israel and IDF tactics are exposed as counterproductive. As Judah Grunstein notes:
This creates a vicious circle with regard to the emphasis on liberty of action, since the IDF's deterrence is no longer based on its Entebbe-era veneer of Mission Impossible-like efficiency, but rather on the knowledge that the Israeli government is willing to use overwhelming and disproportionate force against all provocations, regardless of their threat level.
In conclusion, I agree with an awful lot of what Max Boot says on this:
Israel cannot afford to become another South Africa, Burma, or North Korea. Come to think of it, even South Africa couldn’t afford to become South Africa: an international pariah regime. It was too democratic and too Western to bear such isolation indefinitely in the way that absolute dictatorships like Burma or North Korea can. The international embargo ultimately led to a crisis of confidence within Afrikaner leadership circles and to the negotiated end to the racist regime. Israel, I stress, is no South Africa: it is not an apartheid regime. It is in fact the most liberal and democratic regime in the region, offering Arabs more rights than they are offered in any of its immediate neighbors. And Israel is, mercifully, not yet subject to the kind of international opprobrium that South Africa (rightly) received. Unfortunately, it is heading in that direction....
That doesn’t mean [Israel] should refrain from legitimate acts of self-defense (such as killing Hamas big shots or retaliating for Hamas rocket strikes), but it should be ultra careful to manage public perceptions of its actions. Unfortunately, the Israeli Defense Forces have always shown more competence at tactical kinetic operations than at information operations. That deficiency was revealed during the 2006 war with Hezbollah and now more recently in the botched raid on the Gaza ships. Granted, Israel is getting better about managing the consequences of its actions; the IDF gets kudos for posting video of the raid online quickly and making some naval commandos available for interviews. But if Israel were strategically smarter, it would have avoided the raid altogether, with all the possibilities of something going wrong, and used more stealthy means to prevent the Hamas activists from reaching their objective. The IDF should be mindful of the French experience in Algeria and the American experience in Vietnam: it is possible to win every battle and still lose the war.
Developing.... in a precipitously bad way for Israel.
While it may be true in Western eyes that China stands isolated on its support to North Korea for sinking of a South Korean warship, South Korea does NOT want to harm its trade with China to punish North Korea for that incident as South Korean foreign minister said publicly. China has already told South Korea and Japan to temp down the rhetoric over that issue as well.
So the verbal chicken game that South Korea and North Korea are engaged in following the sinking of South Korean warship Cheonan, is going to die down within a month or two and this whole crisis will look like a ‘tempest in a tea cup’ by then.
I don't get it, you cut and paste an article two times and change the countries involved and that is supposed to prove your point somehow? Huh?
And you're stealing a logical base with this strawman: 'It's a good thing there are no similarities whatsoever between the two situations, or readers could have been confused.' Who claimed there were no similarities? After all, both countries are populated by human beings so that's at least one similarity, so your attribution is silly. Face it, you made a dumb comparison and move on, rather than treat your readers like they don't understand basic logic.
Israel will continue to maintain that its naval response was an act of "self-defense." The IDF 's best defense against international opprobrium is to repeat this mantra knowing that "self-defense" is almost universally recognized among nations as sufficient validation for causa belli. To buttress this claim, an Israeli spokesperson provocatively described the ship as an "armada of hate and violence." Israel also understands that though the Palestinians are bereft and beleaguered and have become a cause celebre with liberals, progressives and human rights activists, they know the Palestinians have no regional champions willing to risk a war with Israel to protect them let alone serve as warriors for, or guarantors of, their right to sovereignty. The outrage will eventually evaporate as new chapters are added to the global David vs Goliath story featuring China and Taiwan, North and South Korea, the US vs jihadist, India and Pakistan, the Gulf Coast and BP.
Israel is America's North Korea
Good analogy. Very apt. Even Israel's shills in the media find Israel's action incomprehensible, and their attempts to spin it come across as half hearted and risible. AIPACer Peter Beinart saw which way the wind's blowing and has jumped ship - good for him.
It is strange to read that what matters as of this murderous act by Israel is its image in the world rather than a scholarly appraisal of such act by Mr. Drezner. A lack of scholary attitude rather. A scholar shall evaluate such act in the context of international norm rather than a PR making for Israel.
It is very odd to see that there is an absence of an influential article on this internationally important crime except Mr. Walt.
Image is everything brother. Actions are only as important as how they're perceived and how they are remembered.
What would you say if you learned that this entire thing was done for PR purposes. But alas, not by Israel, but by the Turkey NGO? That would certainly change things, right? I'm not saying that is the case, but it's an interesting thing to considered, wouldn't you say? Or is that too taboo, blaming victims for their own unfortunate demise?
Or how about Israel telling the Turkish NGO to dock in an Israeli port and the goods would then be shipped into Gaza. Instead, they dismisssed Israel's offer and tried to go against the blockade. What the hell did they expect? Is putting civilians in almost certain danger moral? Especially when it was simply done as a PR act?
I would suggest you read the Stratfor article that DD references in here. It's interesting to say the least - at least it gives a different POV than every other publication. And isn't it moral to consider all alternatives rather than accept for truth what you already want to believe?
"A scholar shall evaluate such act in the context of international norm rather than a PR making for Israel. "
And what pray tell, is "International norm?" Isn't it an international norm to stop shipments that you consider illegal? Isn't the entire PR - spinning events to correspond to your own version of events - the international norm?
The important thing is not the actions, the deaths, the flotilla, the blockade, etc - It is how Israel/Hamas/Turkey will be perceived by their actions. Certain moralists will certainly scoff in my remark that the individual deaths are not important, but I'm sorry - call me callous, cynical, an ass (all three are correct) but afterall, we're talking about the International Norm here.
There is little to be said for your analogy. North Korea and Israel cannot be painted with the same brush. You're merely looking for the quick and eye ball grabbing headline. I suppose you equate Zionism with racism too, another one of my favorite mashups. The realities are more nuanced than that.
Israel had every right under international law to stop and board ships bound for the Gaza war zone late Sunday. Only knee-jerk left-wingers and the usual legion of poseurs around the world would dispute this. And it is pretty clear that this "humanitarian" flotilla headed for Gaza aimed to provoke a confrontation with Israel. Various representatives of the Free Gaza Movement, one of the main organizers of this deadly extravaganza, have let it slip throughout Monday that their intention was every bit as much "to break" Israel's blockade of Gaza as to deliver the relief goods.
[…]
Regarding international law, blockades are quite legal. The United States and Britain were at war with Germany and Japan and blockaded them. I can't remember international lawyers saying those blockades were illegal—even though they took place on the high seas in international waters.
On that note, here are the relevant passages from the Helsinki Principles on the Law of Maritime Neutrality:
5.1.2 (3) Merchant ships flying the flag of a neutral State may be attacked if they are believed on reasonable grounds to be carrying contraband or breaching a blockade, and after prior warning they intentionally and clearly refuse to stop, or intentionally and clearly resist visit, search, capture or diversion.
5.1.2 (4) Merchant ships flying the flag of a neutral State may be attacked if they (a) engage in belligerent acts on behalf of the enemy; (b) act as auxiliaries to the enemy’s armed forces; (c) are incorporated into or assist the enemy’s intelligence system; (d) sail under convoy of enemy warships or military aircraft; or (e) otherwise make an effective contribution to the enemy’s military action, e.g., by carrying military materials, and it is not feasible for the attacking forces to first place passengers and crew in a place of safety. Unless circumstances do not permit, they are to be given a warning, so that they can re-route, off-load, or take other precautions.
5.2.1 As an exception to Principle 5.1.2. paragraph 1 and in accordance with Principle 1.3 (2nd sentence), belligerent warships have a right to visit and search vis-à-vis neutral commercial ships in order to ascertain the character and destination of their cargo. If a ship tries to evade this control or offers resistance, measures of coercion necessary to exercise this right are permissible. This includes the right to divert a ship where visit and search at the place where the ship is encountered are not practical.
5.2.10 Blockade, i.e. the interdiction of all or certain maritime traffic coming from or going to a port or coast of a belligerent, is a legitimate method of naval warfare. In order to be valid, the blockade must be declared, notified to belligerent and neutral States, effective and applied impartially to ships of all States. A blockade may not bar access to neutral ports or coasts. Neutral vessels believed on reasonable and probable grounds to be breaching a blockade may be stopped and captured. If they, after prior warning, clearly resist capture, they may be attacked.
Dear Daniel and all israel critics how is north korea the same?
It's funny that Israel which was acting in selfedefense was condemed so quickly and harshly in the U.N and by friendly western nations before all the details even came out, yet north korea shot a torpedo at south korea killing 46 and there is barely any response.
China kills viliggers in tibet, Chechnia is a funny story, sudan is a bloodpool, there are citizens dead everyday in Iraq and Afghanistan, kurds are oppressed by turkey everyday yet there is only one nation which unites the hypocritical western media. Israel that is fighting for survival.
I would like to see you and your kids suffer from rockets shelled at you every day for years and years when your children cannot do anything because of terrorist who want to kill them. WHen Israel was in Gaza terrorism was OK they were under occupation, so was hizbullah, now when we are not there and hamas swears to kill us, there is legitamacy to terorize
Israel because there is a blockade, there is a blockade of things that Israel determines bacuase the hamas is a murderar that smuggles weapons for one reason, to kill, Israel has the right to prevent from any ship to enter the gaza strip because crazy islamic organizations try to send weapons there.
What really happened was that these humanatarians, attacked the soldiers from the first moment they landed on the boat stabbing them and hitting them with bats and metall bars, axes, knives. All these peace activists had the chance to bring the cargo to be inspected and it would have made it's way to Gaza, yet they preffered the altercation because that was the purpose, they were ready with keramic vests gas masks and weapons, I have never heard of such humanatarians have you?
They have been found with money on them and no identification.
Now the cargo was pulled off the ship it is a minor amount like 25 trucks when there are about a hundred that go into the strip almost everyday. It shows that it was not the purpose of the cruise at least by these 40 hired thugs who were on the upper deck, that is the truth. The soldiers came with paintball guns and handguns, they were very patiant and because they were ordered to not hurt anyone unless there was no choice there are so few dead thugs, they waited 40 minutes untill there was shots fired from the begining of the raid, they were fired at by thugs who took away thier guns, all the media in the world has not mentioned any of this or showed the pictures that present our side. THink how would the Russian army , chinese, american, or any Arab army woulod react they would just drown the ship if not worse.
Turkey has became very extreme, they want to use Israel as their punching bag or at least their extreme leader. he provoked this whole deal and he is leading them backwards the blood is partially on his hands, it is a nato nation which is singing with syria and iran. I hope he loosed next elections, the turks have occupied parts of cyprus since the seventies with no rightt to the greeks, they oppress the kurds and they are going to tech us humanity? haha
Oh that guy/woman with child, old man sitting on the bus with the bulky jacket on a warm day ? Don't profile now.. but their loaded an about to blow-up you and send nuts an bolts an nails flying = 10 dead 40 wounded, oh the wounded means loss of limbs, eyes, nuts an bolts in their bodies, etc. Hatred is a terrible thing, But these people have a right.. right ? Our occupancy on Mexican soil after a war. We don't let/want them here illegally, so they start killing us ( other than supplying drugs ) Don't profile now. Yes the United States stands behind the only free democracy in the middle east. and yes China is mindful of it's fellow Dictatorship run neighbor. whats your real point oh an nygdan, starting today we will no longer check baggage or bodies, ships, planes an trains coming here from anywhere, it's unfriendly and besides it's profiling. there is no end. but walls and inspections have lowered deaths by mutilation. Learn
China = Dictator N.Korea = Dictator Human Rights -0- Dan write about how Booze is OK and cigarettes too, and Marijuana is Bad.
Boy, you guys sure do take things personally
So, I thought the point of discussion was to flesh out arguments for and against a topic, not resort to the churlish name calling exhibited here.
And yes, Drezner meant it as a LITERAL analogy, so he also means that China has now taken over the US in all matters. (OMG DREZNER SAID CHINA IS NOW THE US!!!) You guys are real dopes sometimes.
I, for one, think its fitting analogy. North Korea allegedly sinks a South Korean submarine for whatever reason, and internationally condemned except for China (AKA the US per Drezner). So, then Israel goes and stirs up some shit in by getting on the flotilla and its internationally condemned, except for the US.
So, that is how analogies work. You take the circumstances surrounding similar events and transpose them onto other events with similar circumstances. Maybe a consulting a dictionary before firing off a dumb comment would help some.
If Dan stands far enough behind his analogy, maybe no one will associate it with him. That ought to be his objective at this point.
China's support for North Korea, disgraceful as it is, has been a policy maintained by Beijng out of concern for how a North Korean collapse would affect China. No other nation or combination of nations is seeking a confrontation with North Korea for its own sake, or as a distraction from issues closer to home. Not only is the subject of North Korea's political collapse a source of continual worry to neighboring states, but so is the threat that its government might go as far as killing tens of thousands of people in one of the world's great cities before that collapse happens.
The United States, if anything, rather neglects its own immediate interests in its support of Israel. Many nations seek confrontation with Israel for its own sake, and as a distraction from other issues closer to home. Israel's political collapse is not on the table at all, nor does anyone in Cairo or Amman fret about their city being incinerated because an Israeli dictator decided to go out in a blaze of glory.
Lastly, North Korea can't change its isolated position, not without fundamentally altering the character of the regime we've all come to know and love since it started the Korean War, almost exactly 60 years ago. China can't change that. Israel does have it in its power to remove irritants from its relations with some (though not all) of its enemies. The United States, in turn, does have the capacity to influence Israel's course of action.
Bloggers sometimes reach for analogies; Dan has sometimes come up with some good ones. This isn't one of them.
And it shows how patently absurd the international attitude toward Israel is.
cut and paste from start to finish...
Mr. Drezner, how much does this blogging gig pay you?
Hmm, comparing North Korea to Israel is like comparing an apple to an orange, and a rotten apple at that.
My advice, stick to your day job.
If you want to know what the "peace activists" are about all you need to do
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3895077,00.html
Being a peace activist is being for peace , not just one side in a conflict
You Jews do a great job of this already. And then your wring your hands and ask "why do they all hate us"?
Because of how well you manage perception!! You lie, cheat and steal your way to the top of the power elite.... as in Germany - and then complain that Helen Thomas wanted you returned to the ovens.
Lord, you are an evil people!
Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
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