Friday, July 23, 2010 - 2:11 PM
Peter Baker provides some lay of the land on START in his New York Times write-up:
With time running out for major votes before the November election, the White House is trying to reach an understanding with Senate Republicans to approve its new arms control treaty with Russia by committing to modernizing the nuclear arsenal and making additional guarantees about missile defense.
The White House pressed allies in Congress in recent days to approve billions of dollars for the nation’s current nuclear weapons and infrastructure even as administration and Congressional officials work on a ratification resolution intended to reaffirm that the treaty will not stop American missile defense plans....
The critical player is Senator Jon Kyl of Arizona, the Republican whip, who has criticized the treaty but also signaled that his reservations could be assuaged. In particular, he has sought to modernize the nuclear force, and the administration has proposed spending more than $100 billion over 10 years to sustain and modernize some strategic systems.
“I’ve told the administration it would be much easier to do the treaty right than to do it fast if they want to get it ratified,” Mr. Kyl said Thursday in an interview. “It’s not a matter of delay,” he added, but “until I’m satisfied about some of these things, I will not be willing to allow the treaty to come up.”
Mr. Kyl sounded hopeful that he could reach agreement, ticking off three ways the White House could assure him that the proposed nuclear modernization program would be adequate: ensure enough first-year money in the next round of appropriations bills, include enough second-year money in a follow-up budget proposal and revise the long-range modernization plan to anticipate additional costs in later years.
“I’m not questioning the administration’s commitment to this,” he said, “but this is a big deal, and it needs to have everybody’s commitment to it at takeoff, and I really don’t see that the groundwork has really been laid.”
Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. has met with Mr. Kyl once and invited him and other senators to talk about the treaty again next week. Senator John Kerry, Democrat of Massachusetts and chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, has likewise been talking with Mr. Kyl regularly and is trying to help resolve Republican demands to inspect at least some of the secret negotiating record.
For all the hand-wringing, this sounds like START is gonna get ratified. Kyl has been very careful to avoid boxing himself into a situation where he has to vote no. His asking price is not unreasonable, and it sounds like the Obama administration will meet it.
This would be good - not because START is all of that and a bag of chips, but because it suggests some Very Useful Conclusions:
1) Mitt Romney's Know-Nothing anti-START gambit failed to have any effect;
2) Republicans are being reasonable and constructive on arms control (Kyl's requests make a good deal of sense to me);
3) There can be bipartisan cooperation on important foreign policy questions.
4) Spencer Ackerman was wrong and I was right. Ha!! [It's all about score-settling with you this week, isn't it?--ed. It's the summer -- allow me my small, petty victories.]
Am I missing anything?
Republican tactics on legislative issues this year will be driven by the campaign imperative to maintain a united front against President Obama and the Democrats.
START will get an exemption from that if it appears to party leaders that a treaty won't track with the GOP voters they will need to turn out this November. This is possible, since voters of all persuasions are so dialed in on the economy that any foreign affairs issue besides (possibly) Afghanistan may not register at all this fall. However, if one of Sen. Kyl's conditions involves the administration's budget proposal for next year, then he at least is clearly not thinking in terms of getting the treaty ratified in 2010.
Even in terms of ratification eventually as opposed to ratification this year, the key point will be when the Republicans to whom Romney tried to appeal open up on START. Will GOP Senators like Kyl stand up to them? In the recent past, they have not been willing to do so on other issues. There are not many profiles in courage among this group. So, believe it when you see it.
The Nuclear Question is Passe Now
I'm not saying that the question of the US nuclear arsenal, or any other, isn't important. Far from it. It's also one of my favorite topics of study and interest.
I really do think, though, that at this point a lot of the nuclear questions aren't present in national discourse. If Fox News, CNN, MSNBC and other charming outfits were to seek to aggressively make everyone aware of the issue and then misinform them, it'd be a different question.
If Fox News, CNN, MSNBC and other charming outfits were to seek to aggressively make everyone aware of the issue and then misinform them, it'd be a different question
link:lamptiffany.us
discount tiffany
Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
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