"Palestinian Authority under Salid Fayyam"
I'm pretty sure you meant Salam Fayyad...

While I agree with your assessment that Israel is very comfortable with the status quo, I get the feeling that your "status quo" implies a static state or some complacent acceptance of where the lines in the sand are. There is no indication that the situation is static; as we speak a slow creeping ethnic cleansing is supplanting Palestinians with most radical elements of Israeli society from Jerusalem to Jaffa. Israel is very comfortable with this status quo, I'm sure. Why let go of territory when they can replicate a Hebron or Silwan-like slow-motion-purge? The way the international community (doesn't) react, there is little consequence.

Also, I think the status quo concept gives the world a false sense of security or predictability, at least. The Hamas/Hezbollah deterrent concept is interesting, but I have more concern for the ease with which the Israel has acted in the past and the degree of those actions. Clearly there were no qualms about clearing desired land of Palestinians in 1948. Israel briefly occupied Gaza and Sinai in 1957 and carried out mass killings of Palestinians in the process (well documented by the UN). Israel purged thousands from captured East Jerusalem in the wake of the 1967 war. It seems the current government is more intent on land settling than peace making in Palestine.

Ultimately, my questions are: Why should the world believe there is no modern day Plan Dalet for the cleansing of the West Bank and Gaza once the population "problem" comes to a head? And who would stop it if it were enacted?

The missing piece of what is otherwise an acute summary of Israel's security situation is an analysis of Israel's political status quo.

This is evidently now characterized by a tacit understanding: Israelis committed to expanding settlements in the West Bank will not be allowed as much as they want now, but will not have anything they have taken away now or in the foreseeable future. Though it is undoubtedly true that some of the settlements beyond the 1967 borders would remain Israeli under a hypotheticial peace deal with the Palestinians, the political status quo avoids any hard choices about which would be and which would not.

Among several reasons this political status quo is unsustainable is that different factions in Israeli politics value it for different reasons. The settler lobby regards it as an accomodation that only postpones settlement expansion, its primary objective. The Netanyahu government values the support of Israeli settlement advocates for its continuance in power. Israelis outside the government recognize that supporters of settlement expansion would object violently to a breach of the tacit understanding that threatened abandonment of any significant existing settlements or renunciation of new ones, and wish to avoid any step that might produce such a reaction. Obviously, this would include any negotiation, direct or otherwise, intended to produce a final settlement with the Palestinians.

The status quo, in short, appears to have broad support from most Israelis because it promises less trouble for most Israelis. It represents the path of least resistance. This is nearly always a signal indicating a dangerous situation. I'd be interested to learn if the people Dan is talking with in Israel now have other perspectives on the relationship of various Israeli factions and their priorities with one another, a subject at least as urgent as the relationship of Israel with the Palestinians.

The Israeli officials believe that the Palestinian Authority under Salid Fayyam Salam Fayyad are slowly and steadily developing administrative competencies, which help to ease the likelihood of Hamas developing a foothold.

If he can hold it. They may be in a for a rude surprise if there's ever a break-out of democracy within the Palestinian Authority, since Fayyad is not popular among West Bank Palestinians.

So, what should be done? Israelis don't have a great answer to this question, beyond "let the status quo continue." They think containment can work in Gaza, and that engagement can work in the West Bank.

I suspect it's the whole "see only one-year-ahead" mentality that a variety of commentators (including Thomas Friedman back in the 1980s) described as characterizing Israeli policymaking. It's all about just making the next day safe and secure, and the Israeli government structure seems to almost encourage this.

The wishful thinking that regime change will solve Israel's problem runs strong and deep within Israeli security circles (coincidentally, this is the only issue on which Israelis sound more optimistic than their America counterparts).

Scary news. I suspect this means there will be yet another war in southern Lebanon in the next couple years.

I must say what surprised me most about your recent posts is the surprise you show at the most mundane common knowledge that everyone in Israel knows. I am an american born Israeli and frankly I have to admit that I have have forgotten the complete lack of knowledge about basic facts in israel by which the vast majority of so called "informed" commentators make their cases. should it come as a shock to anyone that moving half an hour out of one of the most expensive cities in the world would go along with a wanted drop in housing prices? This is true of all middle class suburbs regardless if you pass through imaginary lines (or real fences) along the way. Also yes not all tours are the same but that goes for yours also, it is intriguing that your tour went the the "border" area next to Qalqilya which was probably construed as the "typical" way the fence is, where as in reality it is one of the few places where the fence is an actual wall as opposed to the vast majority of it that is actually a chain-link fence. but of course a wall makes for a more dramatic picture. it is also the only area in which the fence weaves in and out making interlocking fingures of territory, but again I would guess upon prior experience that the uniqueness of that section wasn't dwelled upon. And did you visit the large checkpoint in qalqilya? Where the army makes every effort to minimize both trouble and confrontation to the thousands of Arabs with permits to come over and work on the other side of the "green line". You must forgive me but the I find the whole Idea of a fact finding tour ridiculous for you must realize that in the end the only way to gain the real facts is through a long and in-depth familiarity to a place. This I believe holds true to all places, it is as if someone who never had been to america could suddenly become an expert of the way all american governance and the court works simply by sight seeing in Washington DC. As someone who has served as an officer is the israeli army including extensive periods in the territories, and also as someone who is himself a settler believe me that there are so many layers of so called facts that you have to learn before coming close to an understanding of the country that I know and love. I think the one fact that is maybe hardest to learn yet so simple and true is that especially in the middle east nothing is what meets the eye and there is no black nor white just endless shades of grey. if you would be interested in a truer fact finding I wouldn't just trust what your group decided was important but rather seek out people and views from all sides (of which there are much more that two). and I for one would be happy to oblige.

Sir,

Like SO many others, you assert that the window for a two-state solution is closing - How? Why? The statement makes no sense.

A two-state solution is the only solution that won't result in significant population transfers (Israel kicks out the Palestinians, or, most unlikely, a large percentage of Jews escape a disintegrating/overwhelmed state) or genocide (Hamas gets its wish). The world cannot allow this rhetoric to continue, lest the momentum derail the one hope of peace.

HGB

zzxcx

"As one official put it, both Hezbollah and Hamas have transformed themselves from strong terrorist networks to weak armies."

Hamas is pretty weak, but Hezbollah? They took a point blank full-on attack in 2006 and not only survived, but strategically handed the IDF its hat (the IDF achieved none of its strategic goals). It's this sort of arrogant denial that's so dangerous to Israelis...you're only a winner until you lose, and Hezbollah obviously learned alot of lessons and have applied them rather successfully. Who's the underdog now?

As much as Lebanon may want to get rid of Hezbollah, they also know that the group is providing a pretty useful buffer against any more impetuous Israeli incursions. They understand that Hezbollah, loathesome as they are, remain Beirut's first and best line of defence.

What best deal possible exactly has Israel walked away from? Let everyone know when Palestinians and the Arab states recognize a Jewish state in Israel proper, even if on slightly adjusted pre-1967 borders and give up the right of return - i.e. destruction of a Jewish state. Once that's recognized, we can debate Israel leaving deals on the table. Otherwise, Israel is the first nation in human history that has the military and financial strength to defend itself, but is expected to commit national suicide instead through a negotiated compromise not created by military necessity. And if Jews do not have a right to a national homeland, why do the Palestians or any Arab nations neighboring it for that matter have that right? Israel after all, has been a home of the Jewish people for over 2000 years, whereas no such country as Palestine has ever existed and Lebanon, Syria and Jordan were artificially created by collonial reigmes of Great Britain and France and never had independent predecessors in their histories.

"The rocket attack in Ashkelon was striking because it was the first one since Operation Cast Lead. Rocket fire from Gaza went from 20-30 a day to one every other week or so. Hamas is running Gaza, but Israel has enough reconnaissance equipment overhead and along the border to, as one IDF soldier put it, "know enough to know the brand of olive oil they put on their hummus."

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Wrong. Over 400 rockets and mortars have hit Israel since hostilities ended in Operation Cast Lead. 1 foreign worker was killed and dozens have been injured Over 30 IED planted by Palestinians on the border have been successfully disarmed, though 2 Israeli soldiers were killed in a routine check 3 months ago.

A few other acts of provoking have come from Palestinians in Gaza - 6 months ago Islamic Jihad sent 4 of its operatives to swim to Israeli shores from the Gaza beach. They were caught in the night, 3 were killed and 1 injured.