Wednesday, September 15, 2010 - 9:38 AM
Political scientists have a ton of explanations for why good policy might be bad politics, and vice versa. There are limits to that perverse correlation, however. A common-sense narrative is that is a policy actually yields concerete and positive results, then it should be perceived in a more favorable light. I mean, that's pretty straightforward, right?
Politico's Ben Smith has an excellent article pointing out one whopper of an exception to this general rule: the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP:
The Troubled Asset Relief Program is widely viewed as the original sin of the Obama administration -- though it was put together under President George W. Bush and succeeded far beyond expectations. It’s widely seen as the tipping point for disgust with elites and insiders of all kinds -- though it could also be seen as those insiders' finest moment, a successful attempt to at least partially fix their own mistakes....
"It's become demonized on the left and the right by screamers -- Glenn Beck and Rachel Maddow -- who have no interest in the facts; they’re just interested in hyperbolizing and generating attention," lamented New Hampshire Sen. Judd Gregg, a key player in guiding the measure through the upper chamber and one of the few Republicans willing to talk about TARP in positive terms.
Perhaps it’s not a coincidence that Gregg is retiring from the Senate at the end of the year -- or that hardly anyone from either party is joining him in praising TARP....
The consensus of economists and policymakers at the time of the original TARP was that the U.S. government couldn’t afford to experiment with an economic collapse. That view in mainstream economic circles has, if anything, only hardened with the program’s success in recouping the federal spending.
A study this summer by former Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder and Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi was representative of that consensus. They projected that without federal action -- TARP and the stimulus -- America’s gross domestic product would have fallen more than 7 percent in 2009 and almost 4 percent in 2010, compared with the actual combined decline of about 4 percent.
"It would not be surprising if the underemployment rate approached one-fourth of the labor force," they wrote of their scenario. "With outright deflation in prices and wages in 2009-11, this dark scenario constitutes a 1930s-like depression."
Despite this policy success, public attitudes towards TARP are pretty hostile. Of course, part of that is due to some ignorance over the content of TARP itself:
Polls suggest the public has only the haziest view of what TARP was. It's often conflated -- not least by politicians who voted for it and now seek to muddy the waters -- with the stimulus, a piece of policy whose supporters and foes have fallen into a much more familiar debate about the role of government and public spending....
Even Nevada GOP Senate nominee Sharron Angle at one point referred to TARP as "the stimulus." And few Americans seem to know that the banks at the center of TARP have paid the money back -- with interest.
Pollster Ann Selzer asked voters this summer, "Do you think the Troubled Asset Relief Program, known as TARP, was necessary to prevent the financial industry from failing and drastically hurting the U.S. economy, or was it an unneeded bailout?"Fifty-eight percent of Americans said TARP was unneeded. Only 28 percent called it "necessary."
Smith is correct to point out the myriad ways in which TARP has been lumped in with the other bailouts and stimulus programs that got enacted in 2008 and 2009. No doubt the mass public would not necessarily be able to pick, choose and evaluate each individual bailout/stimulus program.
Still, it's very troubling to see a manifest policy success get almost no love whatsoever from its creators. Over the long run, good policy should translate into good politics. The failure of that to occur in this case could lead to some very perverse policy outcomes after the midterms.
EXPLORE:POLITICS, BUSH ADMINISTRATION, ECONOMICS, FINANCE, POLITICS, FINANCIAL MELTDOWN, FINANCIAL STATECRAFT, PUBLIC OPINION
Not all criticism is misguided
Keep in mind, TARP was done in a backroom deal, which always rubs people the wrong way. The original application form for TARP funds was 3 pages. When a family applies for student loans or a mortgage, the instructions alone often exceed 3 pages. The idea that banks which made bundles of fake profits could get such a cooperative government policy when they screwed up so badly struck ordinary people as seedy and corrupt.
Secondly, you overlook the fact that while banks may have paid back most of the TARP funds, the banks did not extend credit to businesses, which stalled the economy. While they were on government-supplied life support, they were still giving themselves huge bonuses for a job well done. Hey, when the taxpayer is on the hook for any losses, why not treat oneself?
If the TARP was solely to save the big banks, then you are right - it succeeded. But TARP was also sold as a way to save the economy as a whole, and they story is a lot more murky there.
I think the problem with TARP (from a public perspective) is that it kept alive those that deserved to die.
If we understand that a good deal of our current financial problems can be traced back to high risk loan decisions made by banks, then we can agree that preventing that kind of behavior is critical to extricating ourselves and preventing a recurrence.
The moral hazard is the issue here. If bankers can feel comfortable that they will still have paychecks after these kinds of terrible decisions, it's tough to see why they wouldn't do so again.
I recognize that the argument is out there that the economic climate would be a lot worse if TARP had not happened, but it seems very difficult to falsify that.
Question: why hasn't ANYONE gone to jail?
By ANDY KESSLER, AUGUST 31, 2010, Wall Strret Journal
"The Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) was a foolish bait and switch. To prevent the 2008 financial crisis from worsening, TARP was originally designed to buy toxic mortgage derivatives weighing down banks and Wall Street, but no one could decide what price to pay for them. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson switched plans, investing TARP funds directly into banks for a piece of equity. It was a bold bet that the Treasury and Fed could engineer an economic recovery without allowing the bottoming action of a sharp but swift repricing of the U.S. housing stock. It turns out they only bought time, not a recovery, and now we are paying for that mistake."
I think it would be a lot more plausible for the neocons to argue that our Iraq adventure was a policy success - surely every life lost and dollar spent there saved 20 had we left Saddam in power.
Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
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