Germany could not translate the economic interdependence of early 20th century Europe into political leverage (without having to resort to arms), and, now, China seems to have entered into a similar predicament. We were once told, on the eve of World War I, that the economic interdependence of Germany and the UK made war "impossible." Interdependence appears to give Germany, the leading economic engine of that region, incredible leverage over debtor countries like the UK and France, and Germany in turn overestimated its relative power vis-a-vis the UK in particular, to disastrous results.

While I do not see Communist China as being as ambitious (or as audacious in its ambitions) as the Kaiser's Germany, it has nonetheless begun practicing a very antiquated style of diplomacy. Its arms buildup is, one hopes, not a precedent for the violence that Germany resorted to when interdependence did not readily equate with leverage. It has alienated, in a shocking short span of time, the two other largest economies in the world (U.S. and Japan) while also forcing Vietnam et al into the U.S.'s embrace.

I do not see what China has to gain from the Japan spat. If Japan does not back down, then China's leaders look impotent. Moreover, Japan's focus on prosecution in this case illuminates the obvious truth that Japan is a nation of laws, while China is, in some ways, still a nation of decree; another embarrassing comparison for China. Japan's navy is superior to China's and of course it has the U.S. base to lean on. The trumped-up rare earths ban will only ensure that the U.S. once again becomes a leading rare earths miner, and/or that Japan diversifies away from rare earths technology. Even before the current spat, several Japanese companies were already looking at ways to build technology without rare earths.

Its trying to launch a sweeping sanctions campaign on a fairly large island nation that happens to be almost universally admired, has no real enemies, is extremely well backed and viewed as a strategic necessity by another world power (US), and is the 3rd largest economy in the world. Yeah..well...good luck with that.

Japan has shown a strong will to change the legacy of WW-II. Basically, it means to get rid of foreign occupation (US base) , to restore traditional territory(with Russian), and to dominate East Asia again. You can see this willingness through their dramatic policy changes toward China and US in recent years. There is a remote possibility that Japan can launch another Pearl Harbor attack on US if they can achieve a complete independence. Of couse, they have to increase the sizee of army first. Here, China is used as a nominal threat. Chinese know what Japanese is thinking. And China wants to protect, or help US to protect, the order of WW-II, which has been shown a sign of decline.

Of course, Chinese are judging US as well. Frankly speaking, we trust the concept of United State, not an individual administration. For instance, I would give Iraq more strategic value than Afghanistan, which implies that US should stay in Iraq, and leave Afghanistan, in my opinion. But Obama took a different approach; of course, he has the right to do it. Therefore, even China should support US, but still need a hand to prevent any damage that A particular US administration can do. The military buildup China should fit this picture; of course, China should not overdo it, which certainly causes suspicion. But, the question of how much remain to be settled between military leadership of US and China.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010-09/24/c_13527494.htm

Hey Drezner, looks like China knows exactly how much it can handle. First the U.S. moves the naval exercise away from the Yellow Sea, and now Japan releases the captain of the fishing trawler.

That's not even mentioning you just wrote a whole article based on "sanctions" that never happened.

I think you underestimate the weakness that Obama projects and how other countries are perceiving us at this point in time.

I see Japan has given in, and probably rightly so with the US in such retreat.

...said Deng Xiaoping.

Of course, in a pattern reminiscent of that of Imperial Prussia/Germany, China is letting it's newfound strength go to its head, and is at risk of badly overplaying its hand. And so, without Deng (playing a role analogous to that of the wise statesman Bismarck) China is driving the nations of the Pacific Rim (Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, Australia, etc., etc.,) into the protective arms of the US.

The US isn't perfect, but if it's 20 years of dominance demonstrates anything, it demonstrates that American hedgemony is pretty painless and profitable for all concerned. As much as America's Marines are resented on Okinawa, the thought of the PLA running over protesters with tanks is enough to make any fevent nationalist a supporter of the US presence.

In sum, the unsurprising result of China's rise is the growing realization of the neccesity of the US Pacific Rim presence.

Great job, CCP. Deng must be rolling in his grave.

In my opinion, China only defends it's national interests in the dispute with Japan. It should not be forgotten that Chine is a parmanent member of the UN Security Council and, if we speak about China's problems in Pacific region without support from the USA, we should recognise that USA will have problems in Middle East without China's support (for ex. Iran case), too. So, USA should not unconditionally support Japan in recent case, because of interdependence with China in global issues.

'Washington's actions and rhetoric have been far more innocuous than Beijing's"

In the last decade, Washington has sent half a million troops to invade and occupy two countries, has provided weapons and support to a close ally which has bombed Syria, Lebanon and Gaza, launched drone missile attacks on Pakistan and a half dozen other nations and has threatened to bomb Iran, either by conventional or nuclear weapons.

So which heinous actions and rhetoric has China done to make these actions far more innocuous in comparison?

The China economic bubble.

When this sort of policy starts to hurt trade the bubble is gonna pop. Then China will not be so concerned with happenings in the Yellow Sea. The sea of Chinese humanity will be a bigger concern.

The rare-earth news from China continues. Just last month, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced plans to further cut export quotas by 72 percent for the second half of 2010. That move caps foreign shipments at 7,976 metric tons, down from 28,417 tons for the same period last year. And earlier this month, two of China’s largest state-owned rare-earth mining companies announced plans to launch “a new unified pricing system,” a move that will likely give China even greater control over the availability and supply of rare-earth compounds. No doubt the action will drive up prices of these valuable resources around the world.

Now whos silly? I guess Daniel W. Drezners biased opinion and claims on China over this issue turned out to be a *In you face!* wrong and proved to be quite silly, hehe.

Japan caved as it shoudl have, they wanted to use this opportunity to use its law on the chinese fisherman to trying to legalize its claim on the islands. Very sneaky but didn’t succeed and it backfired for Japan.

And about the rare mineral, what the article failed to mention is that China got about 80% of know reserve of those minerals in the world, so it wouldnt matter if other countries subsidize to produce themself, as most of the mines are in China, and some of the rare minirals exist ONLY in China and no where else was those ever found, and by the time new tech was invented, asuming its even economically feasible, China would be already the number one economy on the planet, which is about 20-30 years from now.