Tuesday, October 12, 2010 - 9:18 PM

Over at Wired, Spencer Ackerman assesses how low al Qaeda has fallen:
Nine years ago, al Qaeda crashed a plane into the Pentagon and came dangerously close to taking out the White House. Now it wants to hit places like Cosi and Potbelly during the lunch rush in the hope of taking out "a few government employees," writes an extremist using the name Yahya Ibrahim, who also wrote for the launch issue.
That’s not the only idea Inspire floats for al Qaeda wannabes. Got a pickup truck? Why not create the "ultimate mowing machine" by welding steel blades to the grill and driving up on crowded sidewalks to "mow down the enemies of Allah?"
But it’s "paramount" to target government workers, Ibrahim boasts, "and the location would also give the operation additional media attention," according to our friend James Gordon Meek of the New York Daily News. In other words, killing a lot of people all at once is less important than letting Americans -- and government workers in particular -- know they aren’t safe in their capitol city.
Two thoughts. First, this will be an interesting test of homeland security priorities. If al Qaeda is relying on disaffected Americans to do their dirty work for them on U.S. soil, then we will soon see just how many AQ sympathizers there really are in the United States. If nothing happens on this front before the midterms, however, then I'm going to conclude that al Qaeda's latest tactics are a big flop.
Second, even if AQ's latest gambit succeeds in fomenting one or two attacks, this is really and truly small beer. Al Qaeda is now following the narrative arc of VH1's Behind the Music franchise:
ANNOUNCER: Al Qaeda had burst onto the global scene with an array of pyrotechnic successes. After the 9/11 attacks, they seemed unstoppable. Even after losing their base in Afghanistan, Osama bin Laden's escape from Tora Bora seemed the stuff of legend. It looked like the supergroup created by a construction magnate from Saudi Arabia and a surgeon from Egypt would never fade away.
As the years passed, however, al Qaeda found it difficult to top their greatest hits. For a few years they coasted on prior successes, along with minor hits in Bali, Madrid, London, and parts of the Middle East. By 2009, however, their lack of success was becoming noticeable.
FORMER AQ MEMBER: Oh, yeah, it drove Osama crazy. He'd keep saying, "we need to top 9/11." It started to drive al-Zawahiri nuts. Why do you think he made that stupid "house Negro" tape?
ANNOUNCER: By 2010, al Qaeda was a shell of their former selves, and in a strange reversal of fortune, relied on their groupies to help them out.
TERRORIST ANALYST: You knew they were desperate when they started calling on their tribute bands to perform for them. "Bomb this for us, shoot that for us." That's the last act of a desperate group.
FORMER AQ SYMPATHIZER: That English-language Inspire magazine was the last straw for me. I mean, seriously, it was clear that they had sold out by then. I only think about their earlier work when I think of them now. Seriously, did Tucker Carlson design that thing?
ANNOUNCER: By late 2010, the Mexican drug cartels were all the rage. Al Qaeda's time… had come and gone.
Hopefully, there will be no third act in which al Qaeda bounces back with a comeback hit only to fall prey to a shame spiral.
Stephen Lovekin/Getty Images
Personally, I never thought they were the same after they tried to replaced KSM with Sammy Hagar.
But really, I prefer the pre-let's create an Ummah/Caliphate phase. It was so much more genuine when they just wanted to kick the US out of Saudi Arabia.
Yeah, man, Al Qaeda were way cooler before they quit not doing drugs.
This is the best thing I've ever read!!!
Oh Dan, how do you make such a boring topic so cool?! You're awesome. Keep up the great work! I didn't want to read about al-Qaeda before, but now that you've put forth such a witty and captivating analogy I think I want to get into terrorism analysis myself. Oh wait, al-Qaeda has lost all operational capabilities and they're no longer a threat. Forget it then, i'll go be a rockstar.
Is al Qaeda fading or has the United States stepped up its game? Of course al Qaeda wants to top 9/11. The United States is hell bent on preventing another such tragedy. Maybe al Qaeda isn't the rockstar. The United States department of Homeland Security, the NSA, and other groups working toward keeping America safe are the real rockstars.
At peak pre 9/11 AQ numbered a mere 800 wahabis. Then they pulled off the most audacious coup de main in history. The consequence was the de-ranging of the US elite, turning it from Dr. Jekyll to Mr. Hyde. Since then the US has spent $ trillions, smashed the lives of million of Irakis who had nothing to do with AQ, killed millions of productive domestic jobs and run up trillion$ of trade and fiscal deficits.
To kill maybe 700 wahabis.Yea. Do the cost:benefit. Then follow the money to uncover the beneficiaries of all this largesse, bloodshed and killings.
And still our elite shouts " AQ" to justify the bombing of any group it dislikes regardless of whether or not they give a damn about US foreign policy i.e. the Shia in the majority Sunni countries or the inter clan wars among the Pushtoon.
In short Al Quaeda are the two most scariest words in America.. The Saudi royal famliy must have copyrighted it.
I think there are very negative implications to discounting al-Qaeda. Though they haven't had any major successes on American soil since 9/11, the popular notion that they are determined to strike is not propaganda - it's fact. And, in fact, a number of smaller strikes on government workers would show a shift in tactics from rare large attacks to more common smaller ones. Smaller attacks may not carry the weight and damage of 9/11, but they're both easier to pull off and harder to track and prevent.
I wish I could believe this post and laugh in the general direction of al-Qaeda, but I simply can't. I think doing so is unrealistic.
Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
Read More
(6)
SHOW COMMENTS LOGIN OR REGISTER REPORT ABUSE