Tuesday, November 2, 2010 - 11:30 AM
I know that the good editors of this magazine have a series of U.S. election articles offering advice and analysis on the midterm elections and their effect on foreign policy.
I also know that even if this turns out to be a big "wave" election, things aren't really going to change all that much on the foreign policy front. This is for the following two reasons:
1) Congress doesn't have too much sway over foreign policy. Sure, things like foreign aid and treaty ratification rely on the legislature, and the election results will affect those dimensions of foreign policy. But think back to 1994 and 2006, in which both houses of Congress turned over to the opposition party. Was there any real change in U.S. foreign and security policy? The Clinton administration was still able to send troops to Bosnia, and the Bush administration was able to launch its "surge" strategy.
Foreign economic policy might be an exception. After both of those elections, the president found it harder to get trade deals through Congress. Given that this president hasn't been all that keen about trade anyway, I don't think the midterms will matter all that much -- though the South Korea-United States Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) might finally be put to a vote with the hope of securing GOP support.
2) In a sour economy, presidents don't get much of a bump for foreign policy successes. The best foreign-policy president of the past four decades was George H.W. Bush. How many terms did he serve? [Hey, this sounds familiar! -- Ed. Click here to see why. The only things that have changed since that post simply reinforce my thesis.] See Aaron David Miller's FP essay for more on this point.
Enjoy watching the returns, poll-watchers -- I'll be going to bed early, secure in the knowledge that U.S. foreign policy will persist in its current form.
EXPLORE:POLITICS, ELECTIONS, OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, POLITICS, U.S. CONGRESS, U.S. FOREIGN POLICY, CONGRESS, ELECTIONS, OBAMA, TWO-LEVEL GAMES
In a world that cared more about about electing the right man for the job, we'd probably put more emphasis on a potential President's foreign policy skills, his skills in managing a large bureaucracy, and his choice in potential advisers than we would on whatever he's promising in terms of domestic policy (although it would be important to know whether or not he'd veto something).
Enjoy watching the returns, poll-watchers -- I'll be going to bed early, secure in the knowledge that U.S. foreign policy will persist in its current form.
Depressing for sure.
Foreign economic policy might be an exception. After both of those elections, the president found it harder to get trade deals through Congress.
Congress has delegated trade deal-making power to the President before. I wonder if they could do it again.
Other reasons not to care about the midterms
-The parties don't have radically different ideas re: foreign policy.
-In that vein, both will still continue to encourage the notion that Democratic Peace Theory is correct. *facepalm*
they could still shape narrative and stall foreignpolicy goals
do not underestimate their influence. a well oiled GOP campaign with foxnews as their propaganda outlet could do enormous damage to realistic and sensible foreign policy ideas.
I think that over-bloated campaigning frenzy is much more damaging than one might think. What was happening to US FP starting from around July? "Obama can't focus of this, that, he has a midterm election in a few months" - so all of a sudden, every important issue, Israeli-Palestine peace talks, two wars, Iran talks, everything was put on hold, marginalized... for what? For nothing, as it becomes perfectly clear from the author's blog.
Every egghead in Obama's (and Republican) offices were diverted from the really important issues - not just FP, internal reforms as well - just to find something, anything for a short-term political gain. Obama even made a fool of himself in front of the world by begging and trying to bribe the Israelis to leave him alone for a few weeks.
The "real" elections will be twice this frenzy. God save America if its future is solely decided by political propaganda machines.
Hope you had a good nights sleep, but I do agree that foreign policy will not change that much in the near term, but down the road, maybe six months to a year from now, we could have some changes with regards to START 2, Iran and Afghanistan.
As you stated, change has been welcomed by movement on the KORUS FTA. But the entrenched issues remain and analysts, such as at http://www.junotane.com, have stated that Korea's stronger negotiating position after its agreement with Europe will potentially see disagreement continuing for some time, despite new leadership in the House.
Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
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