Posted By Daniel W. Drezner Share

Your humble blogger has repeatedly stressed the theme that when it comes to foreign or economic policy, the U.S. public is rationally ignorant. This does not mean, despite my occasional slip of the pen, that Americans are stupid. It means that they lead busy lives and don't see the need to read up on arcane policy issues that do not appear to affect their daily lives.

One of the awesome upsides of being rationally ignorant is that it allows the voter to reconcile what policy wonks know, in their hearts, is utterly irreconcilable.

Two recent polls of U.S. public opinion reveal this point quite nicely. Pew's latest survey of U.S. attitudes about China reveal deep-seated American anxiety about China's rising economic power, but a desire to strengthen relations. This leads to a headline assessment, "Strengthen Ties with China, but Get Tough on Trade," that is already contradictory.

Even better, however, is the Reuters/Ipsos survey of American attitudes about the debt ceiling:

The U.S. public overwhelmingly opposes raising the country's debt limit even though failure to do so could hurt America's international standing and push up borrowing costs, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday.

Some 71 percent of those surveyed oppose increasing the borrowing authority, the focus of a brewing political battle over federal spending. Only 18 percent support an increase.…

With the Pentagon fighting wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, 51 percent supported cutbacks to military spending.…

Expensive benefit programs that account for nearly half of all federal spending enjoy widespread support, the poll found. Only 20 percent supported paring Social Security retirement benefits while a mere 23 supported cutbacks to the Medicare health-insurance program.

Some 73 percent support scaling back foreign aid and 65 percent support cutting back on tax collection.

How to put this gently… any serious effort to tackle the deficit/debt problem can't be accomplished without addressing Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid and tax reform. So any American who says they don't want the debt ceiling raised is logically saying, "I want interest rates to skyrocket and massive cuts in Social Security and Medicare."

Except, of course, most Americans are rationally ignorant -- so they don't see these set of beliefs as contradictory.

It's not a bad way to go through life… unless, of course, you're the one trying to get the books into balance.

 

SNL

4:02 PM ET

January 14, 2011

deficits

I think there is something else entirely going on here. The problem, in my view, is that pollsters are terrible at asking questions. The pollsters should ask something like this: "Should the government balance the budget through some combination of tax increases and spending cuts?" I'm confident the majority would say yes, and, more importantly, they would mean it. It's true that if you ask a question about cutting social security independently of the deficit question, people will say it should not be cut. But in the larger context of the deficit and the debt, people recognize that defense, social security and medicare/medicaid need to be cut, and they will support politicians who have the guts to say it (almost none that I'm aware of, and no major ones).

 

EL MILAGRO

4:39 PM ET

January 14, 2011

Rational ignorance or Bounded Rationality?

Dan,

Sorry to get all social science on you, but are you really referring to "bounded rationality" when you speak of "rational ignorance"? Perhaps, not being a huge fan of rational choice, I prefer the term "bounded rationality" to convey the idea that since there are so many things going on in an individual's world, no one had the capacity to make truly rational decisions--their decision making capacity is walled in. Or perhaps because I'm a midwesterner, I'm just too nice and think that suggesting that rationality is bounded simply sounds better than insinuating ignorance. I'm sure the dividing line is ever-so-thin, but academics predicate their careers on semantics. Any thoughts?

 

DRLAKE777

8:54 PM ET

January 14, 2011

They aren't the same thing, though.

Bounded rationality is based on the notion that decision-makers possess incomplete information about costs, benefits, and options. That doesn't seem to be what Dan is talking about here, though.

Bryan Caplan, in The Myth of the Rational Voter, argues that voters are both irrational and have systematically biased views on economic issues. I'd go farther than that, and suggest that the average American voter is fundamentally ignorant regarding how the economy works. Now, whether that is truly "rational" or not is a different issue.

 

GRANT

10:34 PM ET

January 14, 2011

We've known for a very long

We've known for a very long time that people don't make rational decisions even though our political and legal system is dependent on them doing that. That isn't to say that authoritarian states ruled by an educated elite are better, they have clearly shown the exact same irrational behavior.

 

OLIVER CHETTLE

1:37 AM ET

January 15, 2011

It isn't the entitlement to

It isn't the entitlement to medical cover that needs to be cut, it is the appalling level of inefficiency in the American healthcare system, public and private. I read an article recently about how the Japanese spend half as much on healthcare, but have universal coverage, better health outcomes, and higher life expectancy.

 

PJR

9:08 PM ET

January 15, 2011

Healthcare Costs, Defense Costs, Taxes on Wealthy

Those are the three budget items that can't be ignored, long-term. (Social Security is not a major problem, Dr. Drezner.)

 

GRANT

11:37 AM ET

January 16, 2011

Japan also has a debt so

Japan also has a debt so large that it positively dwarfs the American one and no politician with the guts to say that unless they raise taxes by a good deal it will be impossible to pay it back. Social spending is only a good idea if you have the money to do it.

 

MWSCHNEIDER

9:55 PM ET

January 19, 2011

Rationality

The problem is that, for most Americans, understanding public policy is more of a "hobby" which interests some and not others. Few people really look at it as their duty to actually understand the economy or anything else. Most Americans want to live their lives and not worry about the larger world. So they base their opinions on a few snips of information or their own biases. From an individual standpoint, however, it isn't necessarily irrational to be ill-informed. There are costs to being informed and, for most people, these costs are greater than the benefits. Moreover, most Americans (at least those that would most likely be well-informed) live pretty good lives and, viscerally, don't really see a connection between macroeconomic issues and their own lives.

 

Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

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