Posted By Daniel W. Drezner Share

Today is Patriots Day in Massachusetts, which means it's a school holiday, which means I'm at home with the Official Blog Children.  Because I don't have much time to blog in-depth about much, I'd like to address a shallow topic this AM -- Donald Trump. 

The current frontrunner for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination has made a few comments hinting at how he would approach foreign economic policy.  Let's take a look, shall we? 

From the Wall Street Journal

As for foreign policy, Mr. Trump said he is "only interested in Libya if we take the oil," and that if he were President, "I would not leave Iraq and let Iran take over the oil." He remains sharply critical of the Chinese, asserting that as President, "I would tell China that you're either going to shape up, or I'm going to tax you at 25% for all the products you send into this country."

"I'm all for free trade, but it's got to be fair trade," he said. "China has taken advantage of this country for a long time." Regarding the $300 billion he said China stands to make from trade with the U.S. this year, Mr. Trump said, "What's protectionism? ...I want to be protected if that's the case." As for pending trade deals with Colombia, Korea and other countries, he said he would only sign them if they were the right deals for the U.S. "If it's a bad deal, I wouldn't sign it," he said.

Here's a fun little project for the commenters:  predict what would happen to the global political economy if, in fact, President Trump seized all of Iraq's oil reserves and slapped a 25% tariff on Chinese exports.  Hint:  I don't think it ends well. 

As for the trade deals, given that almost all of Panamanian and Colimbian exports come into the United States duty-free, I'm dying to hear how the Donald is going to improve upon them. 

The stuff from the WSJ is boilerplate economic populism mixed with a healthy dollop of ignorance about the global economy --  but then there's this exchange with CNN's Candy Crowley:   

Donald Trump says that the "right messenger" could tell OPEC to lower crude oil prices, insisting that prices "will go down if you say it properly."....

Asked on by CNN host Candy Crowley what his idea would be to get OPEC to lower crude oil prices, Trump said: "It's the messenger."

"I can send two executives into a room. They can say the same things; one guy comes home with the bacon and the other guy doesn't," Trump said. "I've seen it a thousand times. ... We don't have the right messenger. [President Barack] Obama is not the right messenger. We are not a respected nation anymore and the world is laughing at us."

Well, I agree with Trump that the world is laughing at someone

The statement that the U.S. is "not a respected nation anymore" is flatly false.  As for whether the "right messenger" can convince OPEC to lower crude oil prices, methinks that Trump is vastly exaggerating the ability of any messenger to tell countries to act against their economic and political self-interest (not to mention OPEC's influence over oil prices).  Well, that or he's been watching this scene way too many times. 

According to Politico's Maggie Haberman and Ben Smith:

More than anything else, according to those who’ve spoken to [Trump], he doesn’t want to be seen as the butt of this particular joke.

“He gets mad that people aren’t taking him seriously,“ said one Republican who’s spoken with him.

So, just for the record , this is me trying to take Donald Trump's policy pronouncements seriously.  That said, I'd like to thank the Donald for providing such easy blog fodder on a holiday! 

 

KIESELGUHR KID

6:11 PM ET

April 18, 2011

Leave Donald Aloooooone!

Look, I have no love of Trump or his policies, but I wish the commentariat would leave him alone. For one, he isn't going to be President nor even likely to substantially alter the other candidates' positions. For another, the nation owes him a debt of gratitude for the thoroughly amusing spectacle of watching him and Jesse "the Body" Ventura and others descend like a flock of vultures and pick Ross Perot's dreams clean.

 

LIFELINE

8:11 PM ET

April 18, 2011

THe great thing about a free-press...

they rip apart the mentally unbalanced who try to take leadership.

 

NSC LOS ANGELES

6:50 PM ET

April 19, 2011

Kieselguhr Kid

You are both insightful and hilarious, thank you sir.

 

JONATHANN

7:12 PM ET

April 18, 2011

I don't know... I'm the kind

I don't know... I'm the kind of voter Obama needs to win in 2012 (hispanic, college educated in a scientific field, from a swing state), and indeed I voted for him in 2008.

I'd vote for Trump over Barack Obama though. I'd vote for a sock puppet over Barack Obama. If Obama can't appeal to me more than Trump, Obama is in a lot of trouble.

But here is the truth... when Trump says the US isn't respected, I think what he is saying is the US isn't a little feared along with that respect. And he's right about this. This open palm, Mr. Rogers foreign policy is a disaster. The world over we see new stories of countries enhancing themselves, typically at our expense. It would be nice to slam our first and push back. I think that is what Trump is talking about.

If that's a disaster for the world economy, well, my gut tells me even the threat of it would impact China far more than it would the US.

But I think the basis of Trumps argument has some validity and shouldn't be dismissed as populism. The world over, countries are really engaging in economic self interests, and even more than that, zero-sum foreign policy. We really haven't done that. Rather we've played the evanglist for free trade, which in some respects is economic self interest, but also has eviscerated large sections of our manufacturing base.

Throwing our weight around and scaring the world a bit, I think, is something that is a long time coming. And that's the crux of Trumps message: two can play this game. If China and other countries are going to play like that, then imagine what we can do if we played under similar, less idealistic rules.

Bring on President Trump!

 

MODERATEWINGER

8:19 PM ET

April 18, 2011

Not a chance

His foreign policy experience is nill, and the only reason he visits foreign countries is to make more money for himself. The fact that he's hanging his hat with the Teabaggers makes him to me at least unwatchable. He's making a fool of himself. He's embarrassing!!!! I wish the media would stop drooling over him like a bunch of lovesick puppies.

 

APPALLED MODERATE

8:25 PM ET

April 18, 2011

Doanld Trump's Business Plan

The Donald has, no doubt, been observing the rise of Sarah Palin carefully, and has realized that looking like a Presidential candidate is good for businees. And, since The Donald has seen that Miss. Sarah has achieved her position by saying the most outrageous things, while at the same time, participating in reality shows, writing books, and having a colorful family life, he figures he can do the candidate thing better. I mean, after all, the Apprentice got far larger ratings than Sarah Palin's Alaska.

Plus, look at the future TV opportunities. Next year, NBC can put on "The Campaign Manager's Apprentice", where a group of wierdos gets to go on TV and plan a primary campaign in on of the unimportant states. In 2013, NBC can follow up with "Celeberity Czar", where a group of treacherous wierdo's who have become famous for no good reason compete to be the President Donald's "Celeberity Czar".

And, any good millionaire/entrpeneur has to realize that folks who have been President get very, very, very rich, without doing very much.

 

WINSTON SMITH 9584

9:34 PM ET

April 18, 2011

The Donald is a clown...

The Donald should explain his how brilliant foreign policy pronouncements would ever work in reality...he sounds like an ignoramus who speaks before he thinks.
The Donald should tell how if he is such a successful businessman his casinos in Atlantic City went bankrupt.

 

CHUCKINCW

11:19 PM ET

April 18, 2011

Half a Notch Above Pat Paulsen

With his litany of failed enterpises and bankruptcies, I don't even think I'd take a personal check from Donald Trump, much less vote for him to be my President.

 

MAJORMARGINAL

8:56 PM ET

April 19, 2011

Half a notch above?

The Donald is no Pat Paulsen sir.

 

MAJORMARGINAL

8:57 PM ET

April 19, 2011

Half a notch above?

The Donald is no Pat Paulsen sir.

 

CMLAWSON

1:26 AM ET

April 19, 2011

I'm OK with The Donald

I'd LOVE for a business minded person to take the reigns of the country. I can see by the comments here I'm in the minority but that's OK. The country used to be built off of hard working folks and now it's just politicians. It'd be a nice change to get someone in office who is 'of the people' so to speak. Is that the Donald? Maybe. I know, I know, Donald isn't 'of the people' necessarily but the concept, 'non politicians in Washington' still holds.

 

LIFELINE

3:31 PM ET

April 19, 2011

If he is 'of the people',

If he is 'of the people', personal wealth aside, you are seriously insulting your country's population, but then again the education system has been failing there.

I couldnt help but do a somewhat personal jab, but honestly, can you really take Donald seriously? Did you read those quotations? There is a lot more to leadership than business. He is hopeless in anything not business related, and even then he has had a decent track record at best. He doesnt have the capacity to understand how business impacts other aspects of policy, foriegn or domestic. I am sure he is just doing this as a stunt in order to gain more attention, probably because he is suffering in the bank but hasn't admitted it to anyone.

If you want someone business minded, vote Mit Romney, not my choice but when you look at the Republican candidates (and considering your requirement of business minded), he is the much lesser evil to the point that he looks like a saint.

 

UMESHGEETA

5:41 AM ET

April 19, 2011

Media Failure

No, I am not content with the kind of 'half a**' job American Media is doing here.

Let us take few simple questions, which American Media should have asked Donald Trump, but they are not doing it:

1. How do America take control of Iraq's Oil? Presume he would order Marines or Division 3 to cordon off Iraqi fields. Then what happens? Would Exxon go there to pump there risking lives of their own people or Airborne 82 'pump' the oil? Meanwhile what would happen to waves and waves of suicide attacks which would come on these production well sites? Next, how to transport that oil? Pipeline? Is he going to keep American Infantry ever 10 fee to guard that or his he going to engage Military Transportation & Logistics Corp to get into the business of spending billions to transport securely this oil to Basra? Will Kurds simply get frightened and hand over keys of their production wells to Donald? And what happens meanwhile at UN where USA is brought back to the corner once occupied by John Bolton with more serious consequences?

2. So then is Donald ready to station tens of thousands of American soldiers in Libya to 'steal' Libyan Oil?

3. So when Donald says he wants to levy 25% customs on China made things, does it mean we are going to get Apple iPhone at 25% more price? What about iPad? Else which products he would let go through? Chamber of Commerce, will he talk to them?

I guess Media is simply allowing this entertainment for us in otherwise 'scary politics' of this country.

Donald Trump is beyond a laughable proposition.

 

RSHOUCK3

4:46 PM ET

April 19, 2011

Trump's Foreign Policy Experience

Please do not forget that DT was Grand Marshall of the von Steuben Day Parade. That certainly counts for something!

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

5:30 PM ET

April 19, 2011

Dr. Drezner's commentary is equal to Trump's

Don Bacon's comments on oil nail the both of you. Oil prices are driven by speculation, principally by our Wall St. Banks and the free money Bernake's giving away at the discount window. Dr. Drezner, your ignorance here needs to be studiously resolved, lest you sound like Mr Trump.

However, Mr Trump is correct about us needing some "protectionism." His strategy is laughable, but your laughing at his charge is off base. You seem to be a bit enamored with and by the US. In fact the Arab Spring is a direct result of NATO's weakened state thanks to the Western Recession. We aren't respected as we were. Our pathetic double standard, colonial project is evident to the world. Perhaps you are too ensconced in the trapping of power, these "think tankers" and the rest of the senseless and blind in the halls of power. You've apparently lost the ability to discern sophistic advocates from earnest reporters.

I agree that Trump is hopefully pandering to the basest instincts in people, I hope, or he is laughable. But, your commentary and critiques aren't much better.

 

ALFONZOZ

6:18 PM ET

April 19, 2011

Donald, a lost 1 NT hand or a 7-Spades Grand Slam?

In my younger years, I used to play Bridge quite a bit.

Shortly after I read this article, the thought came to mind and I began to wonder if Donald Trump's Presidential bid is going to be a doubled 1-No Trump and a lost hand or are we looking at the beginnings of a successful 7-Spades Grand Slam doubled and redoubled?

I've never posted here before but as I read the article and the other comments, I felt that I needed to put in my 2-cents about Mr. Trump.

I saw the interview with Donald Trump on MSNBC this morning and I was extremely interested in what Mr. Trump had to say... I usually don't watch this sort of thing but the interview caught my attention.

I thought it was an excellent interview, by the way. The young lady who was interviewing him got him to reveal exactly what he thinks... Maybe not such a great accomplishment since Donald seems to be quite anxious to put his message out there, anyway ... And that is refreshing to me as a register voter in and of itself...

... Why?

Because Mr. Trump has what I believe is a fresh, no nonsense outlook and perspective which opposes the "Politics as Usual" approach of the current administration... which I believe to be "lies, lies and, if they still don't believe you, more lies.

Ever since President Regan left office the United States has been gradually losing face in the eyes of the rest of the world.

Why?

Because, the world's leaders know that they can't trust our leaders... because a steady stream of lies, lies and more lies that have flowed like a river from Congressional Hill and the White House since President Regan left office.

When Mr. Regan was President, the world knew that you didn't mess with him and the power and prestige of the United States of America skyrocketed as a result ... which wasn't hard because he followed Mr. Carter's Presidency... Are you old enough to remember that fiasco? I am... Yuk!

Mr. Regan was in your face with the truth and if he said something was so, it was. And, if he said that he was going to do something, you knew that it was going to happen.

Let me give you an example from my own life that I think has great bearing on this subject ... I'm a professional internet marketer and one of the internet properties that I manage is http://pennystockprophetsucccess.com ... As you can surmise from the URL, it's about penny stocks.

In case you don't know, penny stocks are fairly controversial... Just like Mr. Trump and his bid for the Presidency.

Along that line, I talked to a professional financial advisor about the alert service this morning and almost the first thing out of his mouth was that it's a "Pump and Dump" (a very disparaging remark, in professional terms) penny stock alert service.

He had no evidence that he cited, it seemed to me that he went with his gut and made what was a very bad assumption based upon his emotional response to a subject that he probably knows very little about... He didn't know that the facts with respect to the service were quite contrary to the generally accepted legal definition of the term... And, he put closure on the conversation when I tried to explain what I know to him.

I think that is what most of the commentators, both media and private commentators, are doing in response to this article and Mr. Trump's apparent bid for the Presidency, is exactly what that financial advisor did to me about the penny stock alert service. They are jumping to emotionally-based conclusions without weighting the facts of what he's saying.

Personally, I don't think I like the man. He seems arrogant and out/misspoken to me but I continually hear him saying that I privately think and I want to hear more. What about you?

Before I close I'd like to point out that from the end of Mr. Regan's Presidency through this year in Mr. Obama's term in office we haven't heard much of anything out of Omar Khaddafi in Libya... This year he began to attack and brutalize his own people... openly. And, I'd like to ask a question...

... Is there a connection?

You tell me, but, I think I know the answer!

 

ALFONZOZ

6:28 PM ET

April 19, 2011

Oops... bad URL

Sorry everyone, the URL in my comment about the Donald Trump article should have been http://pennystockprophetsuccess.com ... Please, no hate mail. It is an integral part of my comment. Peeking at the URL may help some who have no frame of reference understand more about what I'm saying.

Thanks,
Al

 

NSC LOS ANGELES

6:53 PM ET

April 19, 2011

My gravest concern in all this...

Is the fate of Celebrity Apprentice, that show is outstanding. Before we talk about the fate of our nation as it relates to Donald Trump, this key question must be resolved - will the show go on, and if so how?

 

APPALLED MODERATE

7:56 PM ET

April 19, 2011

Easy Solution -- Trump and Obama Swap Jobs

Ex-President Obama could become the presenter of Celeb Apprentice, introducing the celebs to the art of community organizing. The winner can ger a job as Commissioner of Sewers in the City of Chicago.

 

JEFFWOODS

9:34 PM ET

April 19, 2011

It's going to be a brawl come election time...

While I admit, I'm not a staunch Trump supporter, I have also been very frustrated lately with the current administrations decisions (in particular with foreign policy).

I'm not convinced either party has the best solution yet, but I will say one thing. It's going to be a very interesting campaign come election time. If the boxing gloves are coming off this early, imagine what will be happening as election day nears.

 

VERBATIM

10:38 PM ET

April 19, 2011

The Electorate Deserves Nothing Less

After "The God Inspired" and "Student of History" foreign policy, not just foreign economic policy, what's wrong with " A Bull in the China Shop " foreign policy?
Donald got it right : " We are not a respected nation anymore and the world is laughing at us", only he doesn't know the half of it.
The stupidity of the worst majority of ignorant masses is equalled in volume by the stupidity of the best minority of privileged elites.
Let Donald have a stab at it, the farce of American foreign policy, and let the electorate get what they deserve. Who knows what can happen?

 

RAMIREZ_CHRISTIAN

7:33 PM ET

April 29, 2011

Trump for 2012?

The notion of having a business-oriented leader for president doesn't seem too horrible. Politics is messy, but when you have someone in charge who isn't "politically correct", is always on the offensive, and is only concerned about how we can make money, you have to wonder how the outcome would turn out. People looked at Obama as this great beacon of hope and change, and now those same people are feeling a little empty handed. One of Obama's first executive orders was the closure of Guantanamo. Guantanamo is still a running facility and I wouldn't be surprised if the detainees will spend the rest of their lives their. We envisioned a universal healthcare program, we envisioned our troops home by now, we envisioned our deficit to look reasonable, and we envisioned this super movement of alternative energy which would end our dependency on foreign oil. With Obama I envisioned the future being now, but the reality of it is that not much has changed and thats politics. Donald Trump...isn't politics, and people may look at his interviews and think "this guy is a joke" but I see this guy as a nightmare for other countries. He calls himself a "hawk" and maybe we need someone hawk-like to stir some things up. He's the kind of personality that won't take no for an answer and I respect that. We want change, Obama may have done some great things during his presidency, but it wasn't the drastic change America was looking for. So when I go to vote I'll be asking myself this question: Am I content enough to give Obama 4 more years to prove himself, or am I crazy enough to vote for someone that will undoubtedly shake things up for better or worst?

 

Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

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