Why killing bin Laden is a big f***ing deal

Posted By Daniel W. Drezner Monday, May 2, 2011 - 7:01 PM Share

As a group, foreign policy analysts and international relations theorists tend to focus on how large, impersonal factors affect the contours of world politics.   We're like this for two reasons:  a) Large-scale factors -- like, say, demographics -- really are pretty important; and b) We get allergic reactions to media narratives that stress the ways in which one person or one decision made all the difference.

Because of this trait, an event like bin Laden's death has lead to an orgy of blog posts and essays pointing out that not much has changed.  Charli Carpenter's first response was to ccharacterize it as "a single operation in a vast and endless war, that apparently will have no impact on our foreign policy."   Daveed Gartenstein-Ross recounts the myriad ways in which Al Qaeda still matters in a post-Osama world.  Neither Nate Silver nor David Weigel thinks that the effect on Barack Obama's political popularity will be that great.  Ben Smith points out that conspiracy theorists will have a field day with this, just like they have a field day with everything else. 

So, let me go against my instinct to agree with all of the above points and suggest why bin Laden's demise really is, in the words of the VPOTUS -- a big f***ing deal: 

1)  Pakistan.  You can slice this any way you want, the brute fact is that bin Laden was living in the Pakistani equivalent of Annapolis -- a posh resort town that happens to house a lot of Pakistani retired generals, not to mention their main miltary academy.  This doesn't look good for Pakistan, as their continued silence suggests.  As he promised in his campaign, Obama violated Pakistan's sovereignty, sent in special forces, took out bin Laden, and did it all without consulting the Pakistanis about it.  So not only does the Pakistani leadership look incompetent, they also look impotent. 

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that anything that destabilizes Pakistan is a BFD -- and the way this played out destabilizes the country. 

2)  The United States just re-shaped the narrative.  International relations scholars assume that most actors in world politics care about some combination of power, wealth and prestige.  The U.S. killing of bin Laden strengthens American prestige and weakens Al Qaeda's.  According to reports, Bin Laden used his wife a woman as a human shield to protect himself during the firefight, which will tarnish his legacy, even to AQ operatives.  Perceptions matter, and this symbolic victory for the United States will affect perceptions of American power. 

Of course, all it takes for for the debt ceiling not to be raised and this'll disappear, but still...

3)  The United States has increased its bargaining leverage in the Af-Pak region.  As both Matthew Yglesias and Ross Douthat suggest, the death of bin Laden is one of those symbolic moments during which U.S. policy in the region might be re-evaluated.  There are reasons to believe that this blow is actually going to sting for Al Qaeda. 

It's at this moment when a president might have more credibility in bargaining with either Afghanistan or Pakistan.  A large-scare withdrawal is now politically feasible in ways that it wasn't 24 hours ago -- and anti-war members of Congress are already getting frisky about it.  They also have the American public on their side. 

If the administration is smart, they will use this pressure to withdraw to start actually withdrawing, or at least pressure Afghan and Pakistani officials into acting in a somewhaqt more cooperative manner. 

4)  Al Qaeda won't be able to exploit the Arab Spring.  Al Qaeda had already whiffed  badly in handling the Arab unrerst of 2011, and bin Laden's popularity in the region had been falling as of late.  That said, think of bin Laden (in this way and only this way) as like Sarah Palin -- someone who had declining poll numbers but a still-very-rabid base of support.  It's not obvious that this support will transfer to any other jihadist. 

Al Qaeda's remnants and affiliates might be able to operationally exploit the regimes changes in the region -- but they've lost whatever slim reeed they had at a political presence.

5)  It's a social science bonanza!!!  Terrorism experts should be positively giddy about this development.  Bin Laden's death is a great "natural experiment" to see whether Al Qaeda is as decentralized and resilient as some experts claim.  The AP reports that, "U.S. forces searched the compound and flew away with documents, hard drives and DVDs that could provide valuable intelligence about al-Qaida."  I, for one, hope that bin Laden's location in Abbotabad means that he was more of a central node than analysts expected. 

Readers are welcomed to proffer their own explanations for why this is a big f***ing deal in the comments. 

EXPLORE:INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, AFGHANISTAN, AL QAEDA, PAKISTAN, UNITED STATES, WAR ON TERROR
 

DAVID EDENDEN

2:24 PM ET

May 3, 2011

Lies The Military Told Me

The killing of Bin Laden may be a tipping point in stemming the attraction of jihadism for young Muslim men. Bin Laden convinced a large number of alienated youth to die for their religion.country. The "Arab Spring" may convince them to live for their religion/country.

The President of the USA can help the "Arab Spring" .. by stop lying.

Example:

"Bin Laden used (his wife?) a woman as a human shield to protect himself"

I am not young, not an Arab, not a Muslim but I still recognize a lie when it is fed to me by a self-serving politician.

Barack Obama is in possession of a video showing the assault in real time. Release it. Don't dismiss this as a wacky conspiracy theorist or birther type irrationality.

If it showed Bin laden using his wife as a human shield ... great. If it shows his wife desperately trying to shield an unarmed Bin Laden ... assuming no civilized man would shoot a woman ... as he tries to frantically push her away ... yet was still gunned down by Americans, then ... Washington ... we have a problem.

Support the "Arab Spring" ... by stop lying to Muslim Arabs!

 

UKJOURNO

2:50 PM ET

May 4, 2011

Agreed

This article should be corrected to reflect the facts currently reported. SEALS now say a woman ran forward to protect Bin laden and was shot in the leg. This change in accounts does the US no good at all in global public opinion,
Whoever manufactured the woman shield story needs a spanking.

 

MONKEYBOY

4:28 PM ET

May 3, 2011

Well, Bin Laden was warned

His Mom told him that if he kept playing with those terrorists, he was going to lose an eye!

I hope he's happy with himself!

I can imagine his Mom, like Brain's in Monty Python's "Life of Brain" lamenting right now.

 

MONKEYBOY

4:35 PM ET

May 3, 2011

On the Serious Side.

Its a great cover to leave Afghanistan, as getting him was one of the man reasons we went in anyways.

And we do nor know who are "real' "Freinds" in this region are. I think we would have been better off teaming with Iran then Pakistan.

But there are still one more guy we need to get, al-Zawahiri! I bet he is calling his Pakistani real estate broker right now.

If we get him too, well, that just proves to the Al Queda Members they days will be truly up.

 

J RUBE

5:37 PM ET

May 3, 2011

Why it is NOT a BFD

Lots of swear words lately, Daniel. Anyways, why its not a BFD

1) Drone strikes and killing of innocent civilians in Pakistan and Afghanistan will continue, emoldening Jihadis
2) Endless and unwinnable "war" in Afghanistan will continue
3) Bleeding dry of US Treasury through war on terror will continue
4) Erosion of civil liberties of US citizens in the name of a war on terror will continue
5) "Terror" will continue

I could go on, but I will rest. In my humble opinion, this changes nothing and sh*t is still fu*#ed.

 

SUNSHINE2000

7:37 PM ET

May 3, 2011

A simple thing

Its a simple little thing,
A bullet in the head,
And simply a new day
Osama bin Laden is dead.

 

MONKEYBOY

8:59 PM ET

May 3, 2011

Let do give 3 cheers!

To the real heroes! It was not some super laser beam, not a drone operated by some jack dandy half a world away, but troops! Humans who when in and killed him.

If they had used a drone or a big bomber strike, all the data on those computers and drives woulod have been lost.

And that data my prove to the biggest prize of them all. even bigger then OBL himself.

 

NICOLAS19

2:41 PM ET

May 4, 2011

so, what is your point?

1. Destabilizing Pakistan means less stability for the region itself. A huge, nuclear armed state keeps its neighbors and regional rivals - India, Iran, Afghanistan - in check. Should Pakistan fall, everybody would rush to pick up the pieces, seeding a nuclear war in the area. You'd like that? Great.

2. It took you 10 years to allegedly kill Bin Laden. Nothing, I repeat, nothing proves this American "triumph" (or your nice addition with the woman) but American reports. Come on, even when you bombed Zarquawi to shreds with a half-a-ton bomb you gathered the corpse to show off. Now you have the No. 1 enemy and just throw him into the sea... who are you kidding?

3. Obama used this occasion to cash in for some popularity. He is not going to just throw it away by announcing withdrawal. Its been three days, no announcement yet. Not going to happen.

4. AQ has already cashed in on Arab spring. US supported regimes of Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Syria have fallen or are crumbling. Afghanistan, Iraq are in anarchy. This is perfect AQ victory thus far.

5. You're kidding, right? You have been after AQ with the best military in the world for 10 years, claiming that they are decentralized, sporadic and cannot be tracked down. Now you say that the whole organization is on a hard drive - in a compound with no electricity or access to internet. Dream on...

 

ZT

2:48 PM ET

May 5, 2011

Reason #6: When Osama bin

Reason #6: When Osama bin Laden comes back as a zombie, Drezner's recent book will become a best-seller.

 

SILVERFLOWERS

7:51 PM ET

May 11, 2011

I think this is probably the

I think this is probably the best comment out of the entire bunch.

Just a note to others: Those who think DDrez is all about destabilizing Pakistan and some bomb is going to show up in NYC b/c we pissed people off. No matter what we do, people are always going to be pissed off. I don't think everything America does is right, but I think in the end the death of OBL is nothing but good and in some senses yes a BFD. I think DDrez is one person who probably understands more than most, (consider what he does for a living) as to what the repercussions of destabilizing Pakistan are. Many saw Pakistan as a way to 'access' the Middle East. Perhaps those who did see Pakistan as 'worth backing' now will see that perhaps they aren't as credible as we thought.

 

WILDTHING

12:21 AM ET

May 10, 2011

or nothing but staged theatrics...

what if it means nothing since like everyone says we still have terrorism to spur our intelligence budgets and keep the old cold war order purring like a kitten... now with Homeland Security in every town and village... what if it was just time to retire him out to fulfill a promise and get on with the project of securitizing the world and dominating the middle east for the coming age of scarce resources... the antithesis of free trade... rather free to take control of the trade if you possess the magic of Might Makes Right...

What if instead Mother Nature actually has ways of radically self adjusting when such things get so out of hand... such as the human race finding it impossible to live within the means of its planet, sustainably, without the population growth economic ponzi scheme and without the waste of wars of destruction and rebuilding and rearming and the massive over-accumualtion of wealth among a small world rich elite.... wealth necessary to reinforce our infrastructures and beef up redundancy in our systems so we can survive the eco-economic stresses ahead. Unless the expiration date on this version of human civilization has already passed that is.. and our systems are beginning to stink....

 

Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

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