Tuesday, June 21, 2011 - 3:33 PM
In honor of President Obama's Afghan drawdown plans to be announced today tomorrow, David Brooks' column on Afghanistan that opens and closes as follows:
So far, few politicians have embraced my plan for a Marshall Plan Tax. The idea is that every time a think-tanker, op-ed writer or retired senator calls for a new Marshall Plan or a moonshot-type initiative to solve a social problem, they would have to pay a tax of $50. Within a few months, we’d have enough money to pay for an actual new Marshall Plan.
The problem with my proposal is this: Do Marshall Plans work? If this country really did galvanize its best minds and billions of dollars to alleviate poverty somewhere or to solve some complicated problem, could we actually do it?
Well, the U.S. has been engaged in a new Marshall Plan for most of the past decade. Between 2002 and 2010, the U.S. spent roughly $19 billion to promote development in Afghanistan. Many other nations have also sent thousands of aid workers and billions of dollars....
This experience should have a chastening influence on the advocates of smart power. When she became secretary of state, Hillary Clinton sketched out a very attractive foreign policy vision that would use “the full range of tools at our disposal: diplomatic, economic, military, political, legal and cultural.” But it could be that cultural and economic development works on a different timetable than traditional foreign policy.
Perhaps we don’t know enough, can’t plan enough, can’t implement effectively enough to coordinate nation building with national security objectives.
Brooks looks at development in Afghanistan and safely concludes we haven't gotten much bang for the buck.
Brooks' points on Afghanistan seem on the mark, but my problem is with his framing. First of all, it's not like the foreign policy community is clamoring for more Marshall Plans. Given the current U.S. budgetary picture, I think it's safe to say that foreign aid will be the first thing that will be cut in any fiscal deal. Indeed, here's thje Google Trends analysis of the term:
Second, as Tom Maguire points out, Brooks "misses a blindingly obvious point," which is that, "the original Marshall Plan we were re-building Europe, not building it."
Third, and most important, the Marshall Plan was implemented in an environment in which traditional security has already been secured. It's one thing to promost economic development in a place in which security is assumed. Trying to promote economic development, peace and statebuilding at the same time is a hell of a lot harder.
Brooks is right to highlight the massive problems with statebuilding in Afghanistan. His attempt to generalize from that woebegotten, landlocked Central Asian battle zone to the rest of U.S. foreign aid is a serious analogy foul, however.
Alan S. Milward, the great British economist, pointed this out long ago. The Marshall Plan was, quite simply not responsible for Europe's postwar economic miracle. That growth was due to the end of war/chaos, "catchup" with American technology and expertise, and the general growth experience in "North" due to the completion of urbanization.
Indeed, the postwar economic success of European countries is almost inversely proportional to the amount of aid they got : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Marshall_Plan.svg Britain got the most, and did worst, West Germany got rather little and did the best. France wasted all its American aid on its war in Indochina, and still did very well economically
What the Marshall Plan actually did:
1) Provide short-term relief to European economies as they were just starting out. Poverty was rampant and winters harsh. This was a real aid.
2) It provided a huge political/propaganda boon to the United States. Not only was it obviously selfless in the West but the Soviet Union blocked its satellites from accepting any. It was obvious for many, many people who who were the "good guys" after that.
We can use Google Ngram viewer to look further back. Use of the phrase Marshall Plan is actually at historic lows in past decade (this tool only goes until 2008).
http://ngrams.googlelabs.com/graph?content=Marshall+Plan&year_start=1940&year_end=2008&corpus=0&smoothing=3
I don't think it should take much analysis to figure out that we haven't gotten a good return from the money poured into both Afghanistan and Iraq. It's seems to me whenever I watch images from Cnn all I see is rocks, rubble and bullet holes. If we really did pour 10s of billions of dollars into this country, we didn't get much.
We got quite a bit actually, if you compare Afghanistan in 2000 to the country a decade later. You might see rocks, rubble and bullet holes when you watch CNN, but you certainly will never be seeing a headline that reads "Al Qaida strikes U.S. homeland from safehouse/training camp in Afghanistan." That will never happen again.
While the same cannot be said for other troubling countries, namely Yemen, Somalia, and of course Pakistan, the U.S. has achieved its core purpose of eliminating the AQ stronghold in Afghanistan. Whether or not the side interests are ever accomplished is beyond me, but the main goal was certainly achieved.
To the larger point raised in the column, it is clear that this is just another of David Brooks widely misguided and lazy analytic pieces. When comparing the U.S. effort in Afg to the Marshall Plan in Europe he fails to include so many crucial factors such as the western social and cultural norms, the previous establishment of the rule of law, the larger effort to counter Soviet expansion, and finally correcting the mistakes of 1918. I always wonder why Brooks continues to write for NYT, but I think it is because he is such an easy target strawman conservative.
Sorry if this is obvious to everyone but me, but why the incredibly consistent cyclical popularity of the term? Do people celebrate its birthday really reliably, or does it because of its connection to VE Day?
You can't help a country that doesn't want helped
Out of all the other reasons (landlocked, poor infrastructure, surrounded by bad neighboring countries, poor security, lack of industry, long term economic devastation/stagnation, etc), the subject line is the #1 reason why a Marshall Plan will not work in Afghanistan. The US and Soviets killed what was a slowly developing country (well, at least Kabul was developing) and Afghanistan has been in regression since.
Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
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