Posted By Daniel W. Drezner Share

Max Boot is trying to scare the crap out of me and not succeeding:  

Be afraid. Be very afraid. If, like me, you care about the future of American power–if, like me, you believe the United States has been the greatest force for good in the world during the past 100 years and the U.S. armed forces have been our most effective instrument of power projection–then you should be scared about what is being cooked up among budget negotiators on Capitol Hill.

The so-called Gang of Six–Democratic Senators Kent Conrad, Dick Durbin, and Mark Warner, and Republicans Saxby Chambliss, Mike Crapo, and Tom Coburn—are cooking up what is billed as a bipartisan package that would cut nearly $900 billion from the defense budget during the next decade. That’s more than double the $400 billion in cuts that President Obama unveiled in April. 

Hmm... let me think about this for a second....

It's hard to deny Boot's assertion that, over the past century, U.S. military power has been a necessary and successful tool to advance American national interests.  That said, however, if we look only at last decade, the picture darkens considerably.  After Afghanistan and Iraq, is it really possible to claim that the U.S. armed forces have been our most effective instrument of power projection?  Have we purchased more than $1 trillion worth of increased security since 9/11?  No, I don't think that we have

My opinion doesn't count all that much, but former Secretary of Defense Bob Gates's opinion should.  While in office, he wasn't shy in observing that the U.S. military was playing too outsized a role in the crafting of foreign policy

Furthermore, let's take a look at this graph, courtesy of the Heritage Foundation:

The striking thing about this chart is that we're spending more on the military now than we did during the peak of Cold War tensions and Reagan's military build-up in the mid-1980's -- especially since military spending by the rest of the world has fallen dramatically since the end of the Cold War. 

Just to repeat a point I made last fall

I'm about to say something that might be controversial for people under the age of 25, but here goes. You know the threats posed to the United States by a rising China, a nuclear Iran, terrorists and piracy? You could put all of them together and they don't equal the perceived threat posed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War. And until I see another hostile country in the world that poses a military threat in Europe, the Middle East and Asia at the same time, I'm thinking that current defense spending should be lower than Cold War levels by a fair amount. 

AEI's latest "Defending Defense" paper doesn't do it either.  Despite numerous claims about the hollowing out of the U.S. military, I didn't see a single instance in the report in which American military capabilities were compared to either extant threats or possible security rivals. 

Neoconservatives are going to have to present more reasoned arguments for why defense spending should not be on the chopping block than the scare tactics of Boot -- or, for that matter, this whopper from Robert Kagan

[The proposed cuts are] utterly irresponsible and dangerous to national security. Also cowardly, since defense has no domestic constituency, while entitlements — the real source of our fiscal crisis — do.

Spit-take!!  Look, I'm just as scared of the AARP's political muscle as the next foreign policy wonk, but to claim that there is no domestic interest group support for more defense spending is just as bad as, oh, I don't know.... writing a whole book pretending to discover that there's an interest group lobby that supports Israel without defining it properly. 

This critique of Kagan's assertion is pretty overwrought, but the core point ain't wrong. 

Question to readers -- what is the best logical, empirically grounded argument you can make for not cutting the defense budget?

UPDATE:  For more on this point see Christopher Preble, as well as  Shadow Government's Kori Schake.  Schake makes a trenchant point -- if there are to be serious cuts, defense experts need to start thinking seriously about the best way to do it, rather than simply lopping a certain percentage off the top. 

 

DJ_83

2:27 PM ET

July 22, 2011

"Is it really possible to

"Is it really possible to claim that the U.S. armed forces have been our most effective instrument of power projection? Have we purchased more than $1 trillion worth of increased security since 9/11?"

Hard to say, since it's a counterfactual. Sure, military tools are no longer that effective, but U.S. military spending has certainly helped dampen security competition around the world, particularly in Europe and the Asia-Pacific. Those of us in Asia are watching the budget debates carefully, and while many in the region already believe that U.S. power is in terminal decline, a defense spending cut will only hasten regional rearmament.

Perhaps a better question - looking at the Heritage graph - concerns not the level of spending, but how the money's being spent. With 50% of the world's defense spending, the United States should in fact be having a larger international security presence, particularly in East Asia, than it currently does.

 

KCHAYS83

3:40 PM ET

July 22, 2011

Appropriate use of defense spend

I agree that defense spending as an aggregate is grossly inefficient. Instead of arguing the top line value of the defense budget, we should be working to improve procurement and contract management.

During the last 10 years of war we have seen an unprecedented number of civilian contractors working side-by-side with military personnel (I am not just referring to private security firms. Logistics and telecommunication related services contributed to a large amount of the money spent during Iraq/Afghanistan.)

If the government can eliminate spending on redundant, and often unnecessary, services and goods, I believe we could still maintain the level of military readiness and superiority that the US desires.

 

AFGHANGOOD

4:42 AM ET

July 23, 2011

A real Audit...

A serious audit is needed by Congress into the finances of these wars. Most of the bloated spending has gone towards things that really need to be examine in further detail, since I have serious issue with some of what I’ve seen. A senator like John McCain is quick to attack “pork” whenever it has to do with better the lives of Americans IN America, but I’ve never heard him utter ONE WORD of criticism as to the heavily bloated cost of the wars we were lied to about. I’m not saying we are not doing any good in Afghanistan, I’m saying that a lot of people are getting ridiculously rich from it at the expense of US Taxpayers!

 

OMBRAGEUX

2:41 PM ET

July 22, 2011

And...

Who would argue high defense spending has actually done America any good over the past decade? Apart from getting it into a few extra trillions of dollars into debt and fighting two disastrous/eternal wars in Afghanistan and Iraq?

High defense spending isn't always appropriate and is the single most important reason for the Soviet Union's collapse, to cite only one case.

 

KUNINO

9:27 AM ET

July 26, 2011

The graph in this article ...

... makes perfectly clear what Donald Rumsfeld's major achievement was in his last paid government post: driving the US headlong closer to bankruptcy, ably assisted by several public neocons under his command. The suggestion has often been made that Rumsfeld fixed the military. The graph makes clear that no, he didn't. He fixed low military budgets. What medal does that earn? The Bryan Cross of Gold?

 

BLUE13326

2:44 PM ET

July 22, 2011

It depends -- first, we need

It depends -- first, we need presidents who will not get us into wars, or put another way, an administration with a grand strategy that matches lower defense spending. This would require an utter and total refutation of the the neoconservative or liberal interventionist model, so obviously they may feel threatened. Since we don't have that, it's hard to say what level of defense spending we need, because we'll just get into conflicts and then have to spend more money but use budget tricks to hide it like Bush did.

 

BRETT

3:14 PM ET

July 22, 2011

My answer

Question to readers -- what is the best logical, empirically grounded argument you can make for not cutting the defense budget?

We should not make serious cuts to the defense budget at this time, because we have not yet redefined our strategic objectives to cohere with significantly less military spending. Cutting the budget now would simply result in less money being spread over the same purposes, and that has costs in terms of military readiness, logistics, and fighting capabilities.

 

XANTIUM

9:08 PM ET

July 22, 2011

An answer

If you get into a fight with some other country, its a really good thing to have overwhelming military superiority. You do not want to fight anything close to even battle or get so sucked into a war where you project power to other places to influence outcomes there. For instance don't get too caught up in 3 wars in the middle east and not be able to influence China's claims to the South China Sea or a belligerent North Korea.

That said, I do believe cutting the defense budget is a necessary thing considering we're broke.

 

AFGHANGOOD

4:27 AM ET

July 23, 2011

Neo Cons are dangerous...

ROFLOL…the neocons are full of it! We are wasting money and making Afghan and select contractors rich in Afghanistan with hyper inflated cost and expenses to “fight” this war. We need to heavily trim this effort, and have the Afghans fight for themselves and save the US taxpayer some money and more importantly, American lives.

 

BUBBLE BURSTER

5:40 AM ET

July 23, 2011

so lets compare

$900 billion over 10 years. What do we get in exchange for not spending this on defense? One year of additional stimulus spending? Yes I agree there is room to cut in the defense budget, but there is not enough there to make a serious dent in the debt crisis our country is mired in. Kinda sucks having 10 years of fairly rigorous defense cuts be blown by profligate domestic spending in 12 months. It seems to me that all this is more heat than light that obscures the entitlement crisis that will not go away even if you abolish DoD

 

ZORRO

7:45 AM ET

July 23, 2011

Defense Industries

Defense industries in the US are market leaders. If the "subsidies" to those industries are removed they might lose their economy of scale advantage.

They also have the advantage that other countries wants to have inter-operable forces and wants the political goodwill benefit of buying American. If the US was no longer THE superpower this advantage would decrease/vanish.

 

SPANISHMAIN

5:24 PM ET

July 23, 2011

Max Boot is a chickenhawk of the first order

The guy might be a good historian, but he never saw a war he didn't like. These people are like military fetishists. I wonder if they even realize defense is one government role among many, and society is more than an armed camp.

 

MUSE

5:29 PM ET

July 23, 2011

The Neo-Con Aftermath

Where are the neo-conservatives who brought on this economic and political mess?

They are evidently hiding in their think tanks or taking asylum in academia. Anyway, they are in safe havens, satisfied that they achieved their stated goals of regime change by toppling their nemesis - Saddam Hussein. Though none of those neo-cons wore the country's uniform, they pushed others to get into the fight.

It was the neo-cons who decided America should have an empire in the 21st century. Their design for the world has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths - not to mention the wounded and displaced.

Many of the neo-cons may have been kicked out of top government positions, but their influence in former President George W. Bush's administration was enormous. They convinced Bush of the need for torture. Unfortunately, President Barack Obama has not ended the unlawful practice.

It's not surprising that the neo-con aspiration to get Saddam coincided with Israel's purpose, or that Saddam was accused of holding weapons of mass destruction. Iraq had none. Hans Blix, the former head of the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, begged Bush to let him go into Iraq to prove Iraq had no such lethal weapons. Bush refused. He wanted to invade Iraq.

Bush once told an interviewer that only war presidents are remembered in history. He will go down in history all right. Ironically, Bush and his cohorts - and the world in fact - know that only Israel had a nuclear arsenal in the Middle East. Top American officials, from Obama on down, have lost their credibility by refusing to say that Israel is a nuclear power.

The next target for the neo-con empire builders is Iran, another major enemy of Israel. If Iran succeeds in developing a nuclear bomb, the United States is supposed to attack Iran. So far, Obama has resisted the neo-con orders, but who knows for how long.

Their agenda was laid out in Project for the New American Century. Their "Statement of Principles" promotes increasing military spending; modernizing our armed forces; strengthening ties to democratic allies to challenge regimes hostile to our interests and values; promoting the causes of political and economic freedom abroad; and accepting responsibility for America's unique role in preserving and extending an international order friendly to our security, prosperity and principles. These are goals not easily won without war.

By the end of 2006, PNAC was "reduced to a voice-mail box and a ghostly website," with "a single employee" "left to wrap things up," according to the BBC News. In 2006, Gary Schmitt, former executive director of the PNAC, stated that PNAC had come to a natural end.

The PNAC was a platform for a new American colonialism - and the neo-cons continue to lobby in Congress. They also are welcomed on the pages of the New York Times and the Washington Post for their ultra-right points of view.

Others on the neo-con team include Donald Rumsfeld and Robert Kagan, both former Reaganites and Bush propagandists.

The neo-cons stated that the failure to depose Saddam would have resulted in a "decisive surrender in the international war on terrorism." They did not estimate the cost in American lives and money - and they probably didn't care.

Critics of the neo-cons have called them "chicken-hawks - men who have never seen the horror of war but are in love with the idea of war." They accuse the neo-cons of taking it a step further than the conservatives, who believe in maintaining a strong national defense. The neo-cons can only succeed in promoting their goals by blurring the lines between policing the world and maintain a strong national defense.

While many Republicans have begun to question the old neo-con foreign policy consensus that dominated Bush's GOP, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) is the new neo-con hopeful.

While the neo-cons have achieved some of their goals, they have betrayed the good will of Americans and the decency of the country. They should be ashamed!

Helen thomas http://www.fcnp.com/

 

ELLERVEIRA

8:16 PM ET

July 25, 2011

Bush and the Neocons

Without doubt the Iraq war was promoted and cooked up, even, by the PNAC and the Neocons in Washington. But how did they get Bush to sign off on it all? My own theory is that his main motivation was extremely personal and petty. When asked if he ever took advice from his father, he replied that he took advice from his Father in heaven. Again, on another occasion, he observed that the reason his father had lost his bid for reelection was that he had squandered the popularity that the first Iraq War had given him. Hence, in my reading, he probably felt overshadowed by his father, perhaps inferior to him (he certainly was an inferior student at Yale), and was eager to prove himself better than his father as President, mainly by serving for two terms. Hence he was very happy at the idea of having the opportunity to create HIS war, one he would win and that he would use to win reelection. And he managed to do that. I think fundamentally his motivations for this disastrous, evil war were that contemptibly petty (to show up his father and win reelection) and that he was and is a profoundly petty person.

 

IDIOTPRAYER84

7:43 PM ET

July 23, 2011

Its time for the US to let others take responsibility

Neoconservatives are paranoid control freaks looking for demons to be afraid of. Every empire has fallen due to the cost of maintain its empire and that is whats happening to the US. The rise of China should be seen as an opportunity to give some of the security responsibility to someone else. Why shouldn't they have influence in SE Asia? Japan's economy is big enough to defend itself. If we cut our budget in half we would still be spending more than any other country in the world. Has it ever occurred to neocons that America doesn't have all the answers?

Also, in a globalized world economy war is just too expensive both monetarily and economically. Power is now defined by economic power instead of military power and the cost of war can be used in much more productive ways. What is needed is a budget increase in the State Department and a smarter use of international institutions. These institutions aren't perfect, but its cheaper than using the military to solve all the world's problems.

 

NIHONSEAN

9:59 PM ET

July 23, 2011

Your Numbers Are Pretty But Meaningless

Comparing current defense spending to spending in previous decades isn't really effective, unless of course you're more concerned about the propaganda value of the comparisons.

I would recommend comparing the amount spent on defense as a percentage of GDP.

In 1985 U.S. GDP was $4.2 trillion, Defense Spending was $402 billion, so about 9.5% of GDP. Current GDP is around $14 trillion, defense spending around $700 billion, or around 5% of GDP.

Looking at this way we're spending less of our wealth on defense than we were under Reagan.

I doubt that makes you feel better though.

 

IDIOTPRAYER84

10:41 PM ET

July 24, 2011

Defense as a percentage of GDP

Why should defense defense be counted as a percentage of GDP? Seem pretty arbitrary to me.

 

IDIOTPRAYER84

11:34 PM ET

July 24, 2011

Point to add

Using your logic, Japan should have an army as big as China despite China 25 times bigger in land mass and 10 times the population

 

SANJAYK

7:44 AM ET

July 25, 2011

Military spending as a

Military spending as a percentage of GDP quantifies how much of a country's economic output is spent on the military and thus the figure is a better proxy to gauge the 'priorities' of the nation.

Also, the raw numbers can't be used to judge relative sizes of the US military due to conscription during WWII, the Korean War, and Vietnam. The raw dollar value is more an indicator of how many large budget items the military has procured.

 

FIFTH HORSEMAN

10:12 PM ET

July 23, 2011

Israeli Foreign Legion

No expense is too great in support of the Israeli Foreign Legion and its thousand year war with Islam.

 

BLUE ANGEL BROWN

8:04 PM ET

July 24, 2011

Ah, I think I will just take

Ah, I think I will just take all of the money of the entire Earth and just make it worthless. The Devil can use it in hell to stoke the fires down there.

 

PAUL L.

8:42 PM ET

July 24, 2011

Biggest employment scheme

"what is the best logical, empirically grounded argument you can make for not cutting the defense budget?"

There are about 3 million people working directly for the ministery of defense

And don't forget defense industry- so actually defense spending is the biggest federal employment scheme in harsh economic times.

That is real neocon thinking...no?

 

ABBAN AZIZ

3:57 AM ET

July 25, 2011

Neo-cons?

Does this author not realize Obama is the ultimate Neo-Con?

After all, Neo-con has almost become a buzzword so it is easy to forget its definition. Neo-conservatism is predicated on the idea of EXPORTING democracy where it doesn't exist, either through diplomacy or war.

Obama is busy bombing Libya in a blatant act of neo-conservatism. Obama has exponentially increased our presence in Afghanistan, increasing Bush's targeting-killing program by a factor of three. And while Gitmo is no longer accepting detainees, Obama has off-set the need by simply killing potential residents with predator airstrikes.

This guy is a partisan hack.

 

ELLERVEIRA

2:12 AM ET

July 26, 2011

Definition

I think you are quite wrong about the "definition" of Neo-cons. The term is short for neo-conservatives and refers mainly to liberal Jews who turned sharp right in politics in the USA. The reason was given by Norman Podhoretz, one of the founders of "neo-conism". He explained that Zionist Jews began to realize in the 70s and 80s that US militarism as exemplified by the Cold War was essential to the survival of Israel. Since for these Zionists the security of Israel was their #1 concern, they shifted from being liberals and leftists who tended to be critical of the Cold War in the US to being conservatives. That is what gave them the name of neo-cons.

 

ABBAN AZIZ

11:01 AM ET

July 26, 2011

Misquoting Neo-con, heh.

>>>Definition
I think you are quite wrong about the "definition" of Neo-cons. The term is short for neo-conservatives and refers mainly to liberal Jews who turned sharp right in politics in the USA>>

No, neo-converatism (the philosophy that is) is predicated on the notion of exporting democracy.

Your rant about Jews is comical, but simply indefensible. Assigning blame to Israel is a natural instinct and an easy card to play, but not defendable.

Obama - Nobel Prize Winner - continues wars in Afghanistan, started a new one in Libya - tell me, what does this have to do with Israel? Thousands of US soldiers have died fighting wars in Muslim states, on behalf of Muslims.

when is the last time a US soldier set foot in Gaza, Lebanon, or the West Bank?

The answer is never.

 

JAC323

4:04 AM ET

July 25, 2011

Neocons, keeping the world safe for you and me.

Neocons, don't you love them. It is always the average smuck that sacrifices his blood and treasure. Neocons, instead of being an armchair general that sacrifices nothing ( probably profits) why don't you lead the charge and show us all how it is done.

 

ELLERVEIRA

6:19 PM ET

July 25, 2011

Israel and war

Well it is probably needless to point out that Israel is the reason behind the endless warmongering of the Neocons. They fear that if the US is no longer willing to go to war (vs. Muslims of course) we might not want to defend Israel in a pinch. So they constantly talk up the US military and seldom see a war they don't like. Taiwan for them is the Asian Israel. If the US ever decided not to defend Taiwan, it might also decide not to defend Israel. So any turn in the US toward pacifism, to the settling of long delayed issues, any move to get out of China's face, or to seek rapprochement with Islam are to be fought vigorously. What is amusing is that by glueing itself to the US and then encouraging it to run up an impossible amount of debt in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Israel has risked the financial collapse of its protector. If the US decides, as it should, to reduce its deficits by ending its futile wars, Israel will be the first to suffer and left in the lurch.

 

ELLERVEIRA

6:24 PM ET

July 25, 2011

Bush war costs

This graph gives you a good idea of the anti-Muslim war costs and their effects on the US fiscal position. You can see that the war costs incurred under Bush are about equal to all the policy change costs of the Obama administration.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/obamas-and-bushs-effect-on-the-deficit-in-one-graph/2011/07/25/gIQAELOrYI_blog.html?wprss=ezra-klein

 

ELLERVEIRA

6:30 PM ET

July 25, 2011

excuse for military spending

The only excuse, rational that is, that I could imagine for military spending is that, given the Tea Party's demand to cut government spending, it may be the only stimulus spending these reactionaries will accept. So far I am not aware of Tea Party types saying we should cut military spending, although there may be a few mavericks who do so. The GOP has long been the "war party" and I doubt it will change spots now.

 

ELLERVEIRA

6:40 PM ET

July 25, 2011

offhand remark

"...just as bad as, oh, I don't know.... writing a whole book pretending to discover that there's an interest group lobby that supports Israel without defining it properly."

Might that be a slap at Mearsheimer and Walt? I hope not. If it is, I find it regrettable, since their book was an immense service to the national understanding of US politics and foreign policy.

 

BRET BELLUCCI

3:39 AM ET

August 16, 2011

Neoconservatives don't scare me

For the neoconservatives in Washington, the emergence of the Arab Spring early in 2011 represented an imminent challenge to their regional design and to Israeli supremacy. Accordingly, they initiated and orchestrated an aggressive campaign to derail if not ... The hawks and neoconservatives continue to sound the alarm over projected cuts in the budget of the Defense Department. Needless to say, the exact size and scope of those cuts is far from decided, and according to various analysts, both liberal and ... When I returned to Washington after the fall of President Hosni Mubarak, whose trial is starting Wednesday, the neoconservatives on the right and justice hawks on the left dared the U.S. to believe that the Middle East – and our relationship to the ... Can it credibly be said that George W. Bush and U.S. neoconservatives are partly responsible for the emergence of Norwegian terrorist and mass murderer Anders Behring Breivik? According to columnist K. Selim of Algeria’s Le Quotidien d’Oran.
. "The GOP foreign policy debate has changed profoundly since the last campaign," Lake writes, with the neoconservatives losing ground. If, like me, you'd like to see less empire and more republic in contemporary Republicanism, you'll consider that good news. The committee is close to neoconservatives and maintains good relations with the Jewish and Christian pressure chambers, while coordinating its political activities in accordance with the policy of the Zionist Likud party via the Jewish institute for shyla stylez... Indeed the dismissive tone of such breezy generalizations appears to have emboldened key neoconservatives in the Bush years. So it seems somewhat disingenuous for these writers to dissociate themselves completely from the thought-world of someone like Anders Breivik.

 

AXELBROOK

10:28 AM ET

August 19, 2011

you know ther is a saying: If

you know ther is a saying: If mideast falls the whole world collapses and may be one community dissappears for good from this planet-so the interest to save all that can be saved. RIO nd if you go to history you will note Americans are foremost as humanitarian helpers-never mind what the weak minded say..

 

Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

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