Posted By Daniel W. Drezner Share

As part of an ongoing debate that will decide upon The Future Of International Relations in Thought And Deed Once And For All, Anne-Marie Slaughter asks me a question

Given [the reality that new Arab Spring regimes are likely to be less friendly to U.S. interests], why aren't scholars and commentators like my friendly foil Dan Drezner not actively recommending that we simply tell the Syrian government that it can do whatever it likes to its people, as Joshua Foust, Dan Trombly and their fellow defenders of absolute sovereignty insist is the right of all sovereign governments? Why didn't we encourage the Egyptian military to fire on the protesters in Tahrir Square, keep Mubarak in power, and enforce a transition to his son? North Korea's Kim Il-sung managed such a transition to Kim Jong-il, who looks set to do the same to Kim Jong-un. If states are what matter in the world, then why not do everything we can to encourage the continuation of governments that are friendly to our interests, regardless of what happens within their borders?

Well, there's a few answers to give here.  The first is to read what I actually wrote about U.S. policy towards the Assad regime.  The difference, you will find, is that Slaughter has a higher opinion of America's ability to direct change on the ground than I do.   Consistent with what I've written in the past, U.S. influence will work better on allies than adversaries, and Syria falls under the adversary category

The second point is that realists don't deny the possibility of revolution from below -- and, indeed, that's what seemed to happen in Tunisia and Egypt.  When that happens, there is a tactical benefit to being on the right side of history.  It's worth recalling that with Egypt, for example, U.S. official statements evolved from "the Egyptian Government is stable and is looking for ways to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people" to "I hope Mubarak ... is going to respond to some of the legitimate concerns that are being raised" to "Yay!  He's gone!!"   A similar process happened with Syria. 

The third, obvious point is that the United States has been perfectly willing to stand on the sidelines in the face of brutal crackdowns in Bahrain and other Persian Gulf states.  This is because those states are strategically important, the status quo favored American interests, and the crackdowns were effective. 

I say this not as a cheerleader of this policy, nor as a detractor, but simply as an observer.  I'd also observe that the United States is hardly alone in engaging in this kind of hypocrisy.  Iran condemned the crackdown in Bahrain while staying mum about the unrest next door in Syria, blasting the NATO intervention in Libya, and gleefully repressing its own internal protests.  Saudi Arabia opposed the overthrow of Mubarak but supported the Libya intervention.  Only Israel has been consistent.... in saying that they don't like this whole popular uprising thing one little bit.  So, in other words, theocracies, autocracies, and democracies are all acting primarily to advance their interests whenever they can, and their values when they can have the luxury to do so. 

Fourth, I think Slaughter is suffering from a levels of analysis problem.  Even the most structural of structural realists recognize that there's a difference between an individual country's foreign policy and the international system -- and I'm not much of a structuralist.  In Anne-Marie's writings on this subject, she's shuttling between discussions of the best way to describe the changing international system and what American foreign policy should look like in the near term.  Those two topics are related but not exactly the same.   A good international relations theory can guide foreign policy actions, but it will always be an incomplete.  There's simply too many variables that can be dismissed away as "random variation" at the systemic level but matter a lot at the national level. 

I encourage my readers to peruse the rest of Anne-Marie's post on the changing international system, and whether you agree with her army of metaphors characterizations.  It raises much larger questions that will require further contemplation.  Fortunately, I have a 12-hour flight in my immediate future

What do you think? 

EXPLORE:FLASH POINTS
 

ALEX_IU

2:33 PM ET

September 21, 2011

Perhaps You Mean...

"...theocracies, autocracies, and democracies are all acting primarily to advance their interests when they can, and their values when they can. "

Yes, they all act to advance their interests when they can... and their values IF they can. At the end of the day, democracies especially, more or less feign this human rights front until/unless it becomes problematic for them. i.e. Saudi Arabia and US.

When values and interests are aligned, even better. It means Superman can come out wearing his suit. So, more like an Iran or North Korea.

 

ZATHRAS

4:06 AM ET

September 22, 2011

The Narrative

Anne-Marie Slaughter's metaphors are more like a mob than an army. I hope her editors at State were more assertive than the ones employed by FP.

But let's set aside the image of rampant metaphors (tsunamis! tennis! contagion! the roads of London!) surging through the streets, smashing windows and overturning cars. They must, after all, be interconnected somehow, and in terms of content they aren't what's wrong with Slaughter's article. Nor is the obeisance she pays to the contribution of international relations scholarship to the conduct of American foreign policy. That contribution is not obvious to everyone.

No, what's wrong with Slaughter's piece is where it starts. It starts with The Narrative: all-powerful, carrying everything before it. According to The Narrative, oppressive Arab governments came into being and endured through the years because of "our" choices (the first person here being used as a term of art to mean the third person -- "their" choices, other Americans, not bold and enlighted new Americans like ourselves). George W. Bush was very big on The Narrative; I think the only reason Barack Obama has never once used the expression "freedom is on the march" with respect to Egypt and Libya is because Bush used it so often when discussing Iraq.

Anyway, The Narrative describes freedom-loving young Arabs sweeping away the old American authoritarian allies and planting democracy. America beware! -- not really our America, of course, but their America, the America that "propped up" Mubarak, the Moroccan monarchy, Qadhafi, Assad. And the Saudi monarchy, which would surely have yielded to democrats long ago if their America was not propping it up. Our America, bold and enlightened, knows that in the age of the Arab Spring American meddling will be a thing of the past. No longer will America pretend it has influence to exercise on the proud culture of the Arabs, except on the margins like women's place in Arab society and perhaps how Arab children are educated.

The Narrative of the Arab Spring begins with the explicit analogy to the Prague Spring more than 40 years ago, the stirrings of freedom against oppression imposed from the outside. Like most good stories, The Narrative has elements of truth -- and yet the governments now being challenged across North Africa and the Middle East are in their own ways quintessentially Arab, and the violence directed by most of them against protest movements and rebellions alike is Arab as well. It is not aberration or a departure from Arab political traditions that we are seeing in Syria today, or in Yemen, or indeed what we have seen from the regime in Khartoum for the last ten years.

To make ourselves prisoners of The Narrative, as Slaughter does, risks blinding us both to dangers and to opportunities. We celebrate -- or at least President Obama did at the UN -- the triumph of the The Narrative in Egypt, the Arab country that really matters unless we are only talking about oil. But all Egypt has done is to get rid of Mubarak; the SCAF hasn't gone anywhere, and it may turn out that while we admire the great triumph of freedom in Tahrir Square last winter that Mubarakism hasn't gone anywhere, either. We admire the victory of The Narrative in Libya, in which American air power, deployed by the President on his own, created the conditions for a civil war that left the country's armories emptied, thousands of Libyans dead, and a rebel alliance both utterly dependent on its Western backers and committed to the idea that they defeated Qadhafi by themselves. We wring our hands over the Syrian government's brutality toward protesters, over its defiance of The Narrative. I have heard no effort on the part of the Obama administration to hang the Assad regime's despicable conduct around the neck of its patron in Tehran. While shooting unarmed protesters is to be deprecated at all times, the Syrian government's willingness to be used by the Iranians is the thing that matters to us.

The Narrative, to Obama and his admirers as to the younger Bush, is at least as much about Americans as it is about Arabs. This is what is wrong with it as a guide to policy. Americans seek a morality play, with evildoers and heroes, and we seek a happy ending -- which we assume to be attainable as long as our own boldest and most enlightened instincts are deployed on behalf of the storyline. Sometimes things work out that way, through shrewd improvisation or dumb luck. It is unsettling to me, though, to find our best or at least our most heavily credentialed foreign policy minds using a storyline they clearly want very much to believe in as the starting point for their thinking about disparate polities and how America ought to relate to them.

 

DANIIMOVEIS

12:34 PM ET

September 22, 2011

Strawmen

Yea !!! US interference in the affairs of sovereign governments has not been beneficial to the citizens of those countries nor to the United States.
Ar Condicionado Imoveis Acompanhantes Massagem

 

CANADIANSYRIAN

7:06 PM ET

September 22, 2011

For the USA it`s alaways

For the USA it`s alaways Circumstantial interests and circumstantial containment policy , lets try it for 20 years untill we come up with something !.
with Baba Rusia ,,always oppose untill you get the right $.

 

D TAKAKI

2:16 AM ET

September 27, 2011

Zenga Zenga

I tend to eschew theory in FP. Bush and Cheney blew it. The War in Afghanistan was the wrong kind of war with the wrong center of gravity. They then started a war that played into A Qaeda's plans. Bush and Cheney in the process enabled the expansion of AQ.

Libya is a case of trying to get it right for a change and is tarred with the horrendous blunders of Bush and Cheney. Who hates us? Iraqis and Afghanis.
Who waves American flags? Libyans.

Enough said. Mission Accomplished.

 

Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

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