So I see I'm not the only one perturbed by Herman Cain's decision not to take foreign policy seriously.

Politico's Ben Smith concurs, but closes out his blog post on Herman Cain's foreign policy gaps with a provocative point:

There's... something almost quaint, '50s-ish about his invocation of "experts," as though there were a professional expert class that wasn't deeply divided by party and ideology. Even in foreign policy, last redoubt of the wise men, that isn't really true any more.

Except, perhaps Cain isn't really wrong. For all the Washington bomb-throwing, President Obama's foreign policy has been characterized by continuity with President Bush's, from Iraq to Afghanistan to Africa, not with any sharp break. The foreign policy elites don't get along, but with the occasional dramatic exception -- the Iraq invasion was that -- they generally wind up giving similar advice. President Cain will probably be O.K.

This is fascinating question -- does it really matter if Cain continues to dodge any and all foreign policy questions? I've noted that specific foreign policy pledges don't matter all that much -- what about generic foreign policy knowledge?

I think it does matter, for a few reasons. First, the continuity between Bush and Obama overlooks the fact that Bush's foreign policy circa 2008 looked very different from his 2002 foreign policy. It was Bush's post-2001 first-term deviation that truly stands out. Eventually, these deviations from the norm return because they are unsustainable. During the interim, however, an awful lot of blood and treasure can be wasted. I'd like a chance to know Cain's general thinking on foreign policy topics if he seriously wants the commander-in-chief job. If he also deviates from the general contours of American foreign policy, it's the rest of America that will suffer.

Second, Cain's philosophy of "I won't say anything until I know all the facts" is bogus because, in foreign policy, the facts are never all in. Very often intelligence is partial, biased, or simply flat-out wrong. It's those moments, when a president has to be a foreign policy decider for a 51-49 decision, that a combination of background knowledge and genuine interest in the topic might be useful.

Side note: if Cain really believes that he can't talk about foreign policy without getting all the information, then why does he feel at liberty to declare the Obama administration's foreign policy to be "dumb"? Either he keeps his mouth shut about the topic or he starts articulating some positions -- he can't criticize Obama without saying what he'd do instead.

Third, without some knowledge about foreign policy, the best intelligence briefings and foreign policy advisors in the world won't be able to help Herman Cain. An awful lot of international relations knowledge is cumulative; without a decent base there's no point in trying to be briefed on the arcane stuff. That would be like trying to learn calculus without knowing any algebra. I really don't expect Herman Cain to know the names of foreign policy leaders -- but I do expect him to know which countries matter and why. In his answer to "Ubeki-beki-beki-beki-stan-stan," Cain made it pretty clear that he doesn't understand why Uzbekistan matters for supplying Afghanistan. That's a problem.

Fourth, there are decisions when the particular president does matter. A President Gore doesn't invade Iraq. Apparently a President McCain would not have sent special forces into Africa.  In this post-9/11 world, the president has greater authority to assassinate people than I'd like, but there it is  -- so which people will be on Cain's target list?  So I'd like to see the "Cain Doctrine" fleshed out just a wee bit.

Finally, and not to put too fine a point on it, America's reputation for competent leadership has taken a colossal beating over the past decade. With Iraq in 2003, Katrina in 2005, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2011 debt ceiling fiasco, America doesn't look so hot in the eyes of the world. We have a smaller margin to screw up royally than we are used to. I suspect that even Herman Cain would learn about foreign policy after a few years on the job. It's those few years that scare the crap out of me.

The Cain campaign has said that they plan to "roll out a detailed foreign policy plan sometime within the next month," so they obviously recognize that there's a problem with their current lack of positions. I look forward to perusing their plans.

 

JAAYY

3:46 AM ET

October 17, 2011

Bring the troops home!

End the war in Ubeki-beki-beki-beki-stan-stan!

 

MONTGO

10:56 AM ET

October 17, 2011

Michael Howard

It reminds me of the conclusion of Michael Howard's book, "War and the liberal conscience":
"They may be uninterested in foreign affairs, hostiles to alliances and sceptical about such abstract concepts as the balance of power. On the other hand their ignorance of foreign politics makes them suspicious and xenophobe, prone to paranoia, and passionately vindicative in proportion to the shattering of their peaceful ideals" (p 116 of the 2008 edition).
He was writing in 1975 and it is probably still relevant...

 

EPAMINONDAS

11:36 AM ET

October 17, 2011

It's not Cain's lack of knowledge which disturbs me

It is his lack of innate personal need to KNOW, comprehend and render thought which is a worry.

Don't get me wrong, I think on domestic issues he is the winner. But it takes more, and as far as experts, well .... We can go as far back to AT LEAST the Dulles bros to see the mistakes experts can make.

Does that mean someone else would be a better prez?

Not, I think with the present choices, especially the one already serving.
As for what kind of FP prez Cain might be, well that depends on if the experts he chooses are (analytically) a William Kristol, and Walid Phares or a Juan Cole and Andrew Young, but I think from what he has said on other matters we can guess which way he is going to go.

 

ARVAY

11:38 AM ET

October 17, 2011

if a candidate

. . . is a stooge for the Koch brothers, as Cain is -- he can just ask his bosse what his policies should be.

 

EPAMINONDAS

12:05 PM ET

October 17, 2011

uh oh, if you think Cain is a stooge

you must be a racist or something, right?

;)

 

DAVIDE

12:37 PM ET

October 17, 2011

Reality Check

Dan,

Your general point is valid, but Cain has about as much chance of getting the Republican nomination as you do. I still eagerly await your comparison of Romney's foreign policy expertise with that of Senator Obama from 4 years ago.

 

JBRAD

4:22 PM ET

October 17, 2011

Policy

As a former Defense Intelligence Agency analyst, China Division, I am not at all scared by someone who doesn't understand the complex nature of our disgusting foreign policies. We have thousands, if not millions of defense employees, and you don't think they could bring him up to speed on key issues in a short amount of time? If not, we really have a problem. We will have a Sec of State and hundreds of diplomats, won't we? The President doesn't need to micromanage everything, just listen to their advice. If the President already needs to know and control everything, we shouldn't appoint these people. Others have already stated what I feel, that just because Romney, Obama, etc.have more money for foreign policy experts to write up plans, does not mean they have any more knowledge on foreign policy, just good advisers.

Cain has spent years working on monetary issues and I imagine you could ask him about trade issues with countries like China, but probably not how we will hegemon them. We saw McCain fall on his face because he knew very little about the economy. Cain may be the polar opposite, but with JD Gordan on Cain's side, I doubt we will see Cain falter like we have in the past. Even if he does falter on foreign policy, job creation is something Obama seems to know very little about, which benefits Cain. When China, a communist country, is beating the US at their own free market game, maybe there is a problem and it's time to be a little introverted.

Cain will likely be the VP this time around. In the three facets of the party, (Romney, Cain, and Paul) Cain represents the base and will be used by Romney accordingly. But, like I said, since Romney has more money to spend on foreign policy experts, the media will believe he actually knows something. No matter what, I think they all know as much as the community organizer did. Well, maybe that's not true. Obama's "mentor," Rev. Wright was quite vocal on issues of foreign policy. Wouldn't we rather have someone with no FP experience than someone with the baggage of Rev. Wright's rantings?

 

GARVAGH

6:10 PM ET

October 17, 2011

US president must understand world history, global politics

G W Bush proved how dangerous it is to have a president who lacks a sense of history in the White House.

 

MJKT

7:05 PM ET

October 17, 2011

Lack of Intellectual Curiosity

It's his apparent basic lack of intellectual curiosity about the world that frightens me. Anyone worthy of being the leader of the US from either party who has no intellectual curiosity about the world frightens the hell out of me. We have over 300,000,000 people in the US. Surely the Republicans can find one with intellectual curiosity and not just a blind focus on Mammon.

 

ZC

7:36 PM ET

October 17, 2011

It's Just Him

If defense of Herman Cain, he's an equal-opportunity anti-expert thinker, as recorded in this recent NYT piece on his 9-9-9 plan: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/13/us/politics/herman-cains-tax-plan-changes-gop-primary-math.html

His top economic adviser, his proclaimed "economist," is Rich Lowrie. Who is not an economist. Who has no PhD or, to my knowlege, has never presented a single paper in economics or ever had to defend a position in an academic setting.

He is, however, a fan of Jude Wanniski, whom even many committed supply-siders now agree, has gone certifiable.

I agree that Cain is not going to get the nomination - may not even be seriously seeking it - but WHAT a gasbag...

 

COMETLINEAR

9:08 PM ET

October 17, 2011

Yeah, let's elect the CEO of a pizza chain to be our President

All of the repugnicans are certifiable, with the possible exception of Romney.

By the way, if Mitt Romney's father wasn't famous, he'd be selling barbeques at Ace hardware.

 

EZRA

6:23 AM ET

October 18, 2011

Machiavelli

"This is an axiom which never fails:that a prince who is not wise himself will never take good advice, unless by chance he has yielded his affairs entirely to one person who happens to be a very prudent man. In this case indeed he may be well governed, but it would not be for long, because such a governor would in a short time take away his state from him."

 

BUBBLE BURSTER

2:15 PM ET

October 18, 2011

Which is worse, no knowledge or bad knowledge?

As an IR prof it is disheartening when presidential candidates know little about foreign policy, and the lack of interest is certainly problematic. But this article has me wondering if having little knowledge is better or worse than having bad knowledge..

The very "smart'" Woodrow Wilson had very strong ideas about foreign policy that were wildly wrong, while the foreign policy neophyte Truman managed fairly well.

Additionally Dan glosses over the Obama example too easily. Yes later Bush policy was different than early Bush policy, but Obama ran against later Bush policy as well. Where he charted a new course things have not gone well (extended an open hand to Iran, Russian reset,, world apology tour). It is fair to talk about those ideas which Obama brought to the table versus those he ended up adopting. We are fortunate that Obama's more naive ideas were quickly rebuffed by global events and that the new president quickly adopted policies completely at odds with his own previously stated beliefs.

I recall a Reagan line about it not being the case that liberals were ignorant but that they knew so much that wasn't true.

So I continue to wonder which is worse, ignorance, or misguided knowledge.

 

JOSHM

3:27 PM ET

October 18, 2011

I was thinking along the same

I was thinking along the same line. Perhaps it would be useful for a study to be performed, which includes each president, his foreign policy knowledge pre-election, and his foreign policy success or failure during his tenure. Then, the question of whether having such pre-existing knowledge is necessary for FP success could quite possibly be answered.

 

BUBBLE BURSTER

2:54 PM ET

October 27, 2011

What is a success?

The only problem there is what constitutes "foreign policy success" If I made the claim Reagan was a FP success I would get half (well maybe not this crowd) agreeing and half disagreeing. Is Libya a success? How about the elder Bush...very prudent right? but also left the Iraq situation festering and unresolved.

Add to this that every presidency has foreign policy issues that look successful and this that are failures. Look at Carter and Camp David v. Carter and Iran. Kennedy and Cuban Missiles v. Bay of Pigs.

I sympathize with your empirical desires, but unfortunately our assessments and means of measuring "success" are not up to this worthy task

 

JOHN THACKER

4:28 PM ET

October 18, 2011

Yes, there are decisions

Yes, there are decisions where the individual President does matter, that's true. But could you have predicted from Candidate Bush's statements about a humble foreign policy (versus Candidate Gore's statements) that Bush would be the one to invade Iraq?

Could you have predicted from Candidate Obama's statements that he would more likely to send troops everywhere, including Uganda, than McCain?

It doesn't matter if the President affects a lot, if you can't predict from their statements as a candidate what they'd do, then those candidate statements don't really matter.

And it's ridiculous to put the debt ceiling at the same level as those other things. It's a blip, no more important than the Senate failing to pass a budget under Obama ever or the 1995 government shutdown. The announcement today of an impending French downgrade makes that even more clear.

 

PSYCHDOC

5:25 PM ET

October 18, 2011

A Black Perspective?

Foreign Policy is, you know, exotic. It deals with foreign peoples like black folks in Georgia. I recall a black pharmaceutical rep telling me that, if Obama were elected, 'he would get in there (the White House) and they would tell him how was going to be.'

 

DEMETRIUS

3:27 PM ET

November 14, 2011

We have thousands, if not

We have thousands, if not millions of defense employees, and you don't think they could bring him up to speed on key issues in a short amount of time? If not, we really have a problem. We will have a Sec of State and hundreds of diplomats, won't we? The President doesn't need to micromanage parenting blog everything, just listen to their advice. If the President already needs to know and control everything, we shouldn't appoint these people.

 

Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

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