Tuesday, October 18, 2011 - 5:11 PM
Centrist pollster Douglas Schoen has an op-ed in today's Wall Street Journal that reports on some polling his firm did of the Occupy Wall Street protestors:
The protesters have a distinct ideology and are bound by a deep commitment to radical left-wing policies. On Oct. 10 and 11, Arielle Alter Confino, a senior researcher at my polling firm, interviewed nearly 200 protesters in New York's Zuccotti Park. Our findings probably represent the first systematic random sample of Occupy Wall Street opinion.
Our research shows clearly that the movement doesn't represent unemployed America and is not ideologically diverse. Rather, it comprises an unrepresentative segment of the electorate that believes in radical redistribution of wealth, civil disobedience and, in some instances, violence. Half (52%) have participated in a political movement before, virtually all (98%) say they would support civil disobedience to achieve their goals, and nearly one-third (31%) would support violence to advance their agenda....
What binds a large majority of the protesters together—regardless of age, socioeconomic status or education—is a deep commitment to left-wing policies: opposition to free-market capitalism and support for radical redistribution of wealth, intense regulation of the private sector, and protectionist policies to keep American jobs from going overseas.
Sixty-five percent say that government has a moral responsibility to guarantee all citizens access to affordable health care, a college education, and a secure retirement—no matter the cost. By a large margin (77%-22%), they support raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans, but 58% oppose raising taxes for everybody, with only 36% in favor. And by a close margin, protesters are divided on whether the bank bailouts were necessary (49%) or unnecessary (51%).
Thus Occupy Wall Street is a group of engaged progressives who are disillusioned with the capitalist system and have a distinct activist orientation.
Now there are two ways to look at this data. The first, as many sympathizers with the movement have done, is to impugn the pollster's politics, his methods, and the ways in which he's inferring broad political generalizatiions from the data.
These points are worth considering, though looking at the precise questions asked compared to his inferences, I'm not seeing all that much conceptual stretching. Plus, Schoen's results seem to jibe pretty strongly with a smaller New York poll of 100 protestors conducted earlier this month.
Furthermore, consider Nate Silver's analysis of the protests that took place over the weekend across the globe. In looking at turnout, Silver arrives at a similar -- thouugh not identical -- conclusion:The nascent movement known as Occupy Wall Street had its largest single day of protests on Saturday. And a funny thing happened: most of the action was far from Wall Street itself....
Over all, about 38,000 protesters — more than half of the documented total — turned out in the Western Census Bureau Region, which accounts for about 23 percent of the country’s population. On a per-capita basis, the West drew about two-and-a-half times more protesters than the Northeast, four times more than the Midwest, and five times more than the South. And it wasn’t necessarily in large cities — although places like Los Angeles and Seattle had large crowds, so did the wine-and-cheese town of Santa Rosa, Calif., and the college town of Eugene, Ore. among others.....
![]()
This could be due to a number of factors. Perhaps it has something to do with race, for instance. Cities where African-Americans make up a majority of the population, like Detroit, New Orleans and Cleveland, have tended to have underwhelming numbers of protesters and poorly organized Occupy groups. (There are plenty of those cities in the South, the Northeast and even the Midwest — but not really in the western United States).
Or maybe it has something to do with technology: Much of the organizational activity for the Occupy movement has taken place online, and the West Coast is particularly tech-savvy.
I suspect that more than anything, however, it reflects the politics of the protesters. Specifically, they tend to be more liberal than they are Democratic partisans. Take liberalism, subtract the Democratic Party, and the remainder might look something like Occupy Wall Street (emphasis added).
There needs to be more data, but Schoen's results don't seem out of line with the other data points.
So what if the protesters don't perfectly match the population as a whole? Heaven knows the Congressional Republican Caucus doesn't -- it is more than 90% white, heavily male, and heavily rich -- hardly representative of the US population as a whole.
What does matter is: are the protesters' messages resonating with the wider public? It's sometimes hard to tell given our unrepresentative media, biased pundits and academics, but informally I'd say yes, the protesters' message is resonating.
People HATED the bank bailouts, and frankly most HATE the bankers AND their bought politicians and media goons, and people are happy to see someone willing to stand up and point out how corrupt most American institutions have become.
I might be wrong, but I am not holding my breath for the Tooth Fairy to magically appear and re-regulate Wall Street and re-industrialize the United States. If Americans want to live in a rich country with clean institutions, our only option is TO STAND UP AND DEMAND IT!
The US needs to shrink the financial sector down to South Korea levels: according to data from the University of Gronigen, the financial, insurance and real estate sectors combined accounted for about 3% of South Korean employment and 2.5% of GDP in 2010. Unemployment in South Korea? Less than 4%.
Schoen is a Democratic party pollster, not a centrist.
Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
Read More
(2)
HIDE COMMENTS LOGIN OR REGISTER REPORT ABUSE