Thursday, November 10, 2011 - 4:21 PM
Many of my posts from the past week are about just who is an ally and who is an adversary. This is a nice (albeit belated) segue into the G-20 open mic flap, in which French president Nicolas Sarkozy said what he really thought about Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu -- and Barack Obama didn't disagree.
There's obviously going to be much gnashing of teeth about this from the usual suspects, and much caterwauling about said gnashing of teeth from the other usual suspects. So perhaps it's worth stepping back for a second to appreciate the fact that, contra realism, most alliances in recent history are far more long-lasting than a particular leader's term of office. Obviously, certain leaders -- see: Castro, Fidel -- can realign a country from one great power to another. Geopolitical pressures can cause other countries -- see: India -- to realign during critical junctures. Still, these have been the exceptions rather than the rule since 1945.
The Netanyahu/Obama flap is clearly one of clashing ideologies and clashing personalities, but it doesn't really change all that much in the way of the US-Israeli alliance. The defense cooperation between United States and Israel is stronger and larger than ever before, for example. The fundamentals of the alliance remain unchanged. As Robert Blackwill and Walter Slocombe recently pointed out in their WINEP paper:
[T]he United States and Israel have an impressive list of common national interests; that Israeli actions make substantial direct contributions to these U.S. interests; and that wise policymakers and people concerned with U.S. foreign policy, while never forgetting the irreplaceable values and moral responsibility dimensions of the bilateral relationship, should recognize the benefits Israel provides for U.S. national interests
This argument has drawn criticism from the usual suspects, but it reaffirms my point that alliances rarely rise and fall due to individual leaders.
So think of dust-ups like the open mic gaffe as mild ripples in the flow of friendship between the two countries, while the stock of the alliance remains fundamentally constant.
EXPLORE:INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, FRANCE, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS THEORY, ISRAEL, TURKEY, UNITED STATES
Considering a good deal of what I've read about actual Israeli policing I certainly hope we don't have those values*.
Additionally I'm still wondering what Israel provides in strategic support. The terrorists who target Israel largely aren't the same as the ones who target the U.S. Whenever Israel uses force the U.S gets to share the blame for anything that goes wrong. Israel's economy isn't large enough to care about. Israel makes it hard to work with Egypt and Turkey. Israel's nuclear weapons, much like India's and Pakistan's nuclear weapons, put everyone in danger. The only thing I can think of is shared intelligence, and if memory serves Israel paid Pollard a good deal for information on America. Not quite the most trustworthy intelligence relationship.
*Since it's impossible to take an independent stance here because every single Israeli and/or Palestinian** insists you blindly accept their rhetoric let me make this clear. I'm no friend to either side, I don't like either side and I don't want to hear the typical soapbox claims. If you're going to demonize me, at least be creative about it.
** As well as the outsiders who insist on giving far more weight to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict than it actually deserves.
I have never heard of a country, said to have atomic weapons and delivery system to match equal to that of their sponsors, Jewish (deep pocket) Lobby dictated, meek and politically insecure American empire.
Oops, American empire is crumbling, grumbling, tumbling, even as we speak. The past is the past. Wars, especially, of foreign kind, that proved to the world by American war machines did not stop North Korea from developing sufficient atomic weapons. India did not stop from developing the same power. Pakistan followed swiftly after Pokhran-II. South Africa entered into this atomic weapon frenzy.
Did India cared about the strict sanctions? Not by my reckoning. Russians are free to lend hand to India and Iran in erecting new atomic power plants. French and British are not far behind in doing so.
If not these known countries having developed the art and the science, (politically speaking) of spreading the manure the world, according to Obama, would be a better place.
Don't mess with Iran. Or else get ready for the Armamentgeddon.
...and I am Sid Harth@arabuhuru.org
Why do you think realists would predict alliance would dissolve due to a leadership change? If alliances form due to an alignment of interests and a common threat, who is leader of a country should not matter. So do you think it is odd that NATO survived the change from Truman to Eisenhower? Carter to Reagan?
Geez Dan, this is IR101....whats up?
Now this does not imply I think the US-Israeli alliance is based upon realist logic...in fact it seems to me it has always flown in the face of realism given our other interests in the ME
You are correct that realists believe that alliances do not change because of personality. They do believe, however, that alliances should shift with the distribution of power. They see alliances as temporary ententes designed to balance against greater agglomerations of power.
Realists famously predicted the end of NATO after the end of the Cold War, and yet that didn't happen. So I'm saying that in the modern world, current alliances have persisted far beyond what realists would have expected.
I agree on the Cold War issue. But I will still hold you to task based on what you said.
"in the modern world, current alliances have persisted far beyond what realists would have expected"
is a very different claim than...
"contra realism, most alliances in recent history are far more long-lasting than a particular leader's term of office"
This statement certainly implies that realists would predict alliance shoudl end when a leader's term of office ends.
Just some friendly nit-picking.
I have students that regularly read you and other here at FP, so I just don't want my future IR acolytes...errr... impressionable kids getting the wrong idea about realism. And BTW, I wish we had the cool strike-through feature available on the comments!
The Isreal- American relationship is unbreackable as the chain put around the neck of American politicans by AIPAC. You are right, leaders may change but Isreali control of the US congress and the election proccess will enduer.
RC, shouldn't you be over at Walt's blog. They specialize in repeating this claim for the 37billionth time over there.
Truth bares repeating. By the way, did you see all the standing ovations given Bebe' address to the US congress, do you think it was because they like him or that they were afaid to be the last man sitting? My guess is that they did it for the same reason Joe Stalin's audience did it; FEAR.
Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
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