One of the drawbacks of being a foreign policy blogger is that it becomes very awkward to avoid discussing international relations events that make the front page for consecutive days. I am therefore duty-bound to comment on Kim Jong Il's death, Kim Jong Un's ascension to leadership, and what it means for North Korea.
Despite the near total lack of information outside of North Korea about North Korea, the International Brotherhood of Foreign Policy Pundits require I provide at least two predictions per post. So, here's my first prediction, courtesy of Mr. T:
What we do know about the triumvirate of Kim-Jong-Il selected leaders guiding Kim Jong Un into power does not bode well for the North Korean economy. The only bright spot for the DPRK's economy in recent years was a modest step towards private economic activity. The fact that one of them "published articles about the need for the government to curtail market-oriented activity" does not bode well for the per capita income of your average North Korean.
My second prediction is that Kim Jong Un will hold power for longer than any Western analyst expects him to hold power. Most of the pundit chatter has been about the Kim the Youngest's lack of gravitas and the asbsence of sufficient time to groom him as the successor to Kim Jong Il. As I'm hearing this, I keep thinking of Hua Guofeng, Mao's successor. It's an imperfect analogy, but Hua was a relative unknown plucked from obscurity by Mao only a few years before his death. In the end he was outmaneuvered by Deng Xiaoping and his allies, but even Hua managed to stay in power for a few years before that happened, putting down an attempted coup by Mao's wife Jiang Qing and the Gang of Four.
To use more game-theoretic language, I'm not sure there is a first-mover advantage to any ambitious North Korean challenging Kim the Youngest. Because of that, and because the entire DPRK elite likely fears internal division when concerned about natiional survival, the tyranny of the status quo will likely persist for longer than anyone realizes. Which, unfortunately, in this case, happens to be actual tyranny.
Let's not be certain that the U.S and/or other nations weren't aware of his death. Were I a spymaster or intelligent politician I would avoid showing any knowledge of this to protect the source. After all it's not as though D.C, Seoul, Moscow or Beijing had anything to gain from making mention of it before the official announcement.
With that said, I also don't think it's too likely that there is an intelligence source from Pyongyang. The C.I.A and S.I.S appear to have had incredible difficulty getting agents into the Soviet Union and Communist China. Paranoia, extreme restrictions on communications and the inability of the U.S to easily bribe North Koreans mean that it would be insanely difficult.
Jong Un will continue Jong IL’s policies of on again-off again nuclear program to keep milking The West under the expert guidance of their masters in Beijing.
Afterall North Korea’s life line passes through Beijing. Jong IL had taken the son Jong Un on a trip to China to get Beijing’s blessings last year. The puppeteer North Korea has been dancing to the tune of the puppet master China since 1954 when it was created by China after Korean war.
I seriously doubt that China likes the presence of nuclear weapons in North Korea. If those things ever get used the radiation isn't going to stay in the Korean peninsula, to say nothing of the economic impact or the serious dangers if North Korea fired one at the U.S and the U.S responded in kind. Additionally why would China give the U.S a perfect reason to keep a large force in East Asia?
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